How I Would Vote on the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot

Today is something like the last day for Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) members to submit their votes for 2014 induction into the MLB Hall of Fame. This year's ballot is perhaps a uniquely crowded one, because the past few years have seen far more deserving players enter the ballot than depart it through induction, mostly because people have been failing to vote for suspected steroid users or, in some cases, for anyone at all from the "Steroid Era." The names on the ballot can be seen here (note that that page will be updated with the actual vote tallies once those are released), along with their history on past ballots. Now, I obviously don't have a vote, but I have an opinion, so this post will say who I would vote for if I could vote for anyone. This is an unusually complicated question. Normally it's just a matter of looking over the names on the ballot and deciding for each of them whether they deserve induction. But pretty much everyone who isn't a hypocritical curmudgeon admits that there are more than 10 deserving players on this year's ballot, which is a problem since one can only vote for 10 players. So first I'll say which of the eligible players I think are deserving, and then I'll say who I'd actually vote for, as a strategic/game-theoretic matter.

Stop Saying Atheists Think The Universe is Purposeless (And Other Complaints About Ross Douthat)

So, as reported by Kevin Drum, Ross Douthat apparently has some new column or blog post or something that basically beats the old "how can you have morality without religion?" drum. Kevin Drum's response to Douthat is that secular ethics are in fact older than Christianity and are humming along just fine. Mine is slightly different. Here's the central passage from Douthat:

"The secular picture, meanwhile, seems to have the rigor of the scientific method behind it. But it actually suffers from a deeper intellectual incoherence than either of its rivals [the biblical or the spiritual world pictures], because its cosmology does not harmonize at all with its moral picture.

In essence, it proposes a purely physical and purposeless universe, inhabited by evolutionary accidents whose sense of self is probably illusory. And yet it then continues to insist on moral and political absolutes with all the vigor of a 17th-century New England preacher. And the rope bridges flung across this chasm — the scientific-sounding logic of utilitarianism, the Darwinian justifications for altruism — tend to waft, gently, into a logical abyss."

Can we just stop this already? It's hard to actually get to the bottom of how bad this is. I could go through it line by line. There is no sense in which the modern scientific-atheist cosmology describes the universe as "purposeless." Now, it is true that, as best we can tell, our universe was not created by anyone in particular, and therefore not for any particular purpose. It is also true that the universe was not aiming to create human beings, that instead they just arose from a not-particularly-random evolutionary process over millions of years and that they just as easily could not have. But, so what? Who said that the universe has to have been created for the purpose of having humans in it in order for anything to be meaningful or for individuals' sense of self to be real? Oh, that's right: religious people. That's entirely their idea. For most of us secular-scientific intelligentsia types, the quasi-miraculous facts of life and consciousness create plenty of purpose and meaning all by themselves. And they make it seem, well, pretty bloody obvious that the well-being of us conscious living types is important, and that people should generally act so as to increase it.

If Only They Had Signed Reyes

Earlier today the New York Mets signed Curtis Granderson to a four-year contract. He'll be their everyday left fielder in 2014, probably. This is the Mets' second major move of the off-season, after the signing of Chris Young to play right field. Both are good signings, I think, though I was hoping they'd sign Shin-Soo Choo. So, what's left to do? Well, the most obvious remaining hole on the roster is shortstop. Also they don't really have any very good choices for leadoff hitter. Hmmm, I wonder...  who could fill that void?

Oh yeah, this guy:

Seriously, letting Jose Reyes go was the biggest mistake the Mets have made in a long time. Imagine he were on the Mets instead of the Blue Jays right now. They'd have an offense consisting of Travis d'Arnaud at catcher, some sort of platoon of Josh Satin and one of Ike Davis or Lucas Duda at first, Daniel Murphy at second, Reyes at short, David Wright at third, Granderson in left field, Juan Lagares patrolling center, and Chris Young playing right, with the likes of Wilmer Flores, Eric Young, Jr., Matt den Dekker, or Ruben Tejada as backup players. Here's how I'd picture the default lineups with that roster:

vs. RHP:                                    vs. LHP:
Jose Reyes, SS (S)                    Jose Reyes, SS (S)

Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)             Juan Lagares, CF (R)
David Wright, 3B (R)               David Wright, 3B (R)
Curtis Granderson, LF (L)        Chris Young, RF (R)
Chris Young, RF (R)                 Curtis Granderson, LF (L)
Ike Davis, 1B (L)                      Travis d'Arnaud, C (R)
Travis d'Arnaud, C (R)              Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
Juan Lagares, CF (R)                Josh Satin, 1B (R)

That's a good offense, if you ask me. And it's got plenty of flexibility with Young (Eric) and Tejada on the roster. Instead, Tejada's currently the projected starting shortstop, Wilfredo Tovar is the default backup infielder (I think), and the big free agent shortstop, Stephen Drew, is a bottom-of-the-order guy who does nothing to solve the leadoff problem. If Reyes were still on this team, in other words, it would look to have a very well-rounded, well-balanced offense heading into 2014, with the slightly messy first base situation by far the biggest problem. Instead they're looking at another year, likely, of struggling at the top of the order, which will probably spell trouble for the whole team. And sure, they could do something unconventional like just shift everybody up one, bat Murphy leadoff and Wright second, but that's not likely to happen under Terry Collins.

I'm not necessarily saying the Mets should try to trade for Reyes now, although I'd be overjoyed if they did so for a reasonable price. I'm just saying that the decision not to match Miami's offer two offseasons ago was inexcusable, remains by far the worse thing Sandy Alderson has done as Mets GM, and continues to haunt this team. Reyes is exactly what they need right now, and he's exactly what they don't have.


May the Yankees come to regret letting Robinson Cano go the way the Mets miss Reyes right now. (Off-topic, but necessary)