Intrade and the 2010 Senate Races

According to Intrade.com, at the present the 2010 Senate races break down as follows:

2 safe Democratic races (OR, VT)
6 likely Democratic races (HI, WI, MD, NY1, NY2, CT)
2 leans Democratic races (WA, CA)
8 leans Republican races (NV, CO, MO, IL, KY, OH, PA, NH)
8 likely Republican races (AZ, UT, SD, OK, IA, AR, NC, DE)
9 safe Republican races (AK, ID, ND, KS, LA, IN, AL, GA, SC)
1 leans Independent race (FL)

Definitions: "Safe" means the percentage given for the leading party is more than 90% of total percentages. "likely" means that value is less than 90% but at least 66.6%, while "leaning" means leading but less than 2-to-1 in favor. I assume that unlisted percentages are filled in to make the total add up to 100 or exceed it by as little as possible, and that if the total is not 100% I just scale it so that it is (for instance, 92% vs. 15% is "likely," while 85% vs. 6% is "safe").

A few thoughts: UT, SD, and OK are not likely Republican, they're safe Republican, and Intrade is toying with me putting them under 90%. I still think Republicans are reaching in WA and CA, and I think most of the "likely Democratic" races are realistically out of play. As for the big group of important races, the "leans Republican" crowd, that's a huge pile of races Republicans are only narrowly favored in, and I think in at least some of them (NV, OH, I'd like to think PA) it's wrong to favor the Republicans at this point. Overall, Intrade gives 8 Republican pick-ups and 1 Independent pick-up, and zero actual Democratic pickups (though Crist will caucus with the Democrats). I think that North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Delaware are going Republican, and Florida is going to Crist. That leaves us with 53 Democrats and 3 Independents caucusing Democratic, if nothing else changed. I think Harry Reid will hang on, I'm skeptical of Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Mark Kirk's been having a rough couple of weeks and may be a criminal. All in all, I'd say somewhere in the mid-to-upper 50's is very much within range, and I think the big take-home from that Intrade landscape is that there are a lot of seats where Republicans are favored, but just barely. If the Democrats can win four or five or six of them, we're in good shape.