The Republican Field, May 13, 2011

Sort of pursuant to my previous post, I thought I'd take a look at the way the Republican field is shaping up, and see whether I'm really correct that there's no one who scares me in it. Basically, the theory works like this: sure, it doesn't look like there's anyone remotely scary out there, and all available Republicans who aren't Romney or Huckabee are polling in the forties against Obama, but anyone who becomes a major party nominee will become taken seriously, even if they haven't been taken seriously thusfar. Now, I'm ignoring Romney and Huckabee, and I'm also ignoring people like Herman Cain who are, let's face it, not serious candidates. So, are there any semi-plausible Republican nominees who would have the slightest chance of defeating Barack Obama?

Newt Gingrich: No, Newt does not scare me. He'd lose the state of Georgia, okay? He's got negatives in the high fifties nationally. For a while he was riding this bizarre "elder statesman" high, but now people are remembering that he's not a wise mature veteran, he's still the same petulant, partisan hack he's always been. He'd run a campaign, but lose to Obama worse than McCain did.

Ron Paul: I don't know why this never caught on sooner, but Ron Paul is a crank. He says very sensible things when talking about Iraq or marijuana, but guess what, neither of those will be a big deal in 2008. Even if he wins the nomination, and even though he's been known to be somewhat adored by young libertarian types, he'd get crushed by Obama. He's just too crazy. Same goes for his son.

Tim Pawlenty: Honestly I think Pawlenty might be the nominee by default at this point. There aren't any problems with him, except the thing where he's incredibly boring and vanilla. People perceived to be boring and vanilla don't tend to become President. I could see him doing about as well as McCain '08, but I have a really tough time seeing Tim Pawlenty knocking off Barack Obama.

Rick Santorum: Uhhh... no. He's Rick Santorum. He's insane. He's not going to become President any time soon.

Michele Bachmann: Another person who is crazy. Really, spectacularly, fundamentally insane. No. She scares me, but in a "how are there people like this?" way, not a "she could be President!!!1!" way.

Mitch Daniels: I think Daniels is the scariest guy here, right? He's kind of like Romney except without all of the shellacking Romney's been taking of late. I can imagine that a still-sluggish economy combined with the inevitable name recognition boost he'd receive as the nominee could get him over the top. Still don't think he'd be favored, though.

Rudy Giuliani: I find it hard to believe this guy's name is on the list (I got the list from Wikipedia). Last time I checked, the two things on Giuliani's political resume were 9/11 and being pro-choice, once upon a time. Social issues, not going to be the point in 2011, and, uh, I think Obama can trump the 9/11 thing. Also it won't be important. Also he's Rudy Giuliani. He's the embodiment of patheticness. No chance.

Jon Huntsman: Aside from the 0% chance of his being the nominee, I do think he would have time taking down Obama. Democrats have tried playing the game where you nominate someone who's just not that different from their opponent, or who tries to present themself that way. It doesn't work. Why would I vote Huntsman over Obama? There's just no good reason. Also he's a Mormon; if Romney wasn't gonna make that work, I don't think anyone will any time soon.

Gary Johnson: Another one who I think has the 0% chance of being the nominee, but he might worry me, theoretically. He says some very reasonable things, and it's possible those could distract from the highly unreasonable things he says about economics. He doesn't scare me, though, 'cause he's not going to be the nominee.

Sarah Palin: Yeah... no.

George Pataki: Really? Again, this guy's name is on the list? Seriously? I guess if he were the nominee it might make a campaign of things, but really? Pataki?

Donald Trump: See above, re: yeah, no. A Trump nomination, which is a strict impossibility at this point, would let Obama forget about Texas and set his sights on places like Wyoming or Utah.


Conclusion: I might be worried about Mitch Daniels, if he becomes the nominee. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of people I can take at all plausibly in the primary who would worry me in the slightest in the general. Sure, there might be time for that to change, but honestly I'm not terribly intimidated by this Republican field, especially with this week's developments knocking out Romney and Huckabee. Those were their two biggests threats, by far, and with them gone, it's just not a deep bench. And it's not their bench: it's their lineup. Their lineup is a shallow bench.