Romney Handicap Continues to Grow

I've defined something I call the Romney Handicap, which for any given poll is Obama's net margin over Romney in the general-election trial heat minus Obama's net approval rating in that same poll. The idea behind it is that it tells us what approval rating Obama needs to beat Romney: if the Romney handicap is 5 points nationally, then Obama should be able to tie Romney nationally even if his net approval rating is -5. When I originally wrote my post on the subject, the average Romney handicap from all the most recent Public Policy Polling state-level surveys was around 6 points, maybe a little bit less. But shortly thereafter I noted that more recent surveys had shown a larger Romney handicap, and indeed, several weeks later that trend has continued. Of the twelve PPP state polls I designate as "recent," a category that starts a month or two ago and includes all polls taken since that time, the average Romney handicap has been 10.25%.

The range has run from 17 points (Ohio, a bad place for Romney to be at his very weakest) down to just four points, in North Carolina. PPP polls NC every month, and the month before the most recent the Romney Handicap there was much larger. Mississippi clocks in with a 5-point Romney handicap (which I don't think Obama will much mind as one of his relative weak spots!). Other than these three outlier states, the range is from a 7-point to a 14-point handicap. Meanwhile, while the previous PPP national poll showed a Romney handicap of just 6 points (a tie vs. Romney but a -6 approval rating), this month Obama has opened a three-point lead on Mitt while retaining the lousy approval rating, for a 9% handicap. All of this suggests that, over the past couple of months, Mitt Romney has become a weaker candidate, by somewhere from three to five (net) points nationally. That's a big deal. An extra three points of margin, nationally, would've made John Kerry President. In a close race, the damage Romney's sustained of late could make the difference. By the theory of this model, the break-even point for the Obama vs. Romney match-up has shifted from a -6% Obama approval rating to a -9% or -10% one. Pollster.com tells me that right now Obama's national approval is -6.8%, similar to what PPP found. If the election were held today, therefore, Obama would be re-elected over Romney, but only because of the growth of the Romney Handicap over the past few months. This continues to be a trend worth watching.