Eastern Sweep Propelling Senate Democrats to Victory

Over the last few months, it has become increasingly clear that Democrats are going to sweep the Senate contests in the eastern half of the country, modulo the Deep South. Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida were supposed to be competitive races with Democrats on the defensive, but really lousy Republican candidates has led to those races all being pretty easy holds (if one ignores the spate of recent polling from lousy Republican firms showing Tom Smith gaining on Bob Casey in Pennsylvania). Connecticut has been mysteriously competitive, but not quite competitive enough for wacky Linda McMahon to triumph. Olympia Snowe's retirement in Maine has led to the impending victory of Angus King, who'll probably caucus with the Democrats, creating a de facto pick-up. The blockbuster Massachusetts contest between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown appears to have tilted Warren's way, for another pick-up. Likewise in headline toss-up-ish contests in Virginia and Wisconsin, except that the apparently impending victories by Tammy Baldwin and Tim Kaine will result in Democratic holds.

Most entertainingly, the really idiotic comments by Todd Akin (R-MO) and Richard Mourdock (R-IN) about rape (which were only occasioned by their really unpopular policy positions on abortion) seem like they may have delivered an unlikely hold in Missouri, and an even more unlikely pick-up in Indiana. The result is that it looks like the only Senate contests the Democrats seem likely to lose among those states adjoining or east of the Mississippi River are in Tennessee and Mississippi, which are sort of as expected. And we've got three pick-ups: Angus King replacing Olympia Snowe in Maine; Elizabeth Warren replacing Scott Brown in Massachusetts; and Joe Donnelly replacing Richard Lugar in Indiana.

Now, the Western half of the country is not likely to be as friendly. The Democrats can be pretty sure of contests in Hawaii, California, Washington, and New Mexico. They could lose every other race, though, which would include losing seats in Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska. But even then, with three pick-ups in the East against three losses in the West, we're holding our position, with 53 Democratic Senators, and a more progressive caucus at that. And the North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, and Arizona races all feel at least somewhat toss-up-ish, even if the general partisan gravity tells us Republicans kind of ought to win them.

Democratic strength in the Eastern Senate races, in other words, means that we get to play offense in the West. Any success there will give us a bigger majority than we entered the cycle with. And given how much ground we had to defend this cycle, that would be just plain fun.