Phil's Dominant Week

Okay, the week isn't officially over yet, but the bookmakers at Ladbrokes are giving Phil Mickelson 1/14 odds, i.e. predicting that he'd win the Waste Management Phoenix Open 14 out of 15 times from this position. It's about as close to being over before it's over as a golf tournament can be. That, not surprisingly, is a bit of a testament to how good Phil Mickelson has been playing this week. He's at -24, and holds a six-shot lead over Brandt Snedeker. He's led the tournament wire-to-wire thus far, opening with a 60 that could've easily been a 59, following it up with a 65 that could've been a whole lot better had he not driven the ball into the water on 18, and adding a 64 today to effectively put this thing away. In fact, it's felt like every single day Phil's had one of the best rounds of the entire field. And he has! In fact, it's kind of impressive how well he's been doing compared to the best round anyone else has had.


As I said, Phil has put up rounds of 60, 65, and 64 this week, for a total of 189 (one stroke off the all-time 54-hole scoring record). What are the best rounds anyone not named Phil Mickelson has shot on each of the three days so far? Well, on Thursday, five players shot 7-under-par 64: Brandt Snedeker, Jeff Maggert, Ryan Palmer, Ted Potter, Jr., and Padraig Harrington. Then, yesterday, Charlie Wi and Keegan Bradley shot 8-under 63s. Today, the best round came from Harrington, again, with another 63. So, let's define the "field composite" score as the aggregated best rounds from each day, aside from the player we're focusing on. So far this week, the field composite is 190. Phil's beating it. This is impressive.

How impressive? It's impressive enough that some of the most dominant victories I can recall didn't manage that feat. Take Phil's win at the 2006 BellSouth Classic. He shot 63-65-67-65 for a 28-under-par 260, and basically lapped the field, winning by 13 strokes. Yeah, 13. (Interestingly, I believe that that 67 was only as high as it was because Phil hit his approach shot into the par-5 18th into a pond fronting the green, and made an unnecessary double bogey.) The best round by a not-Phil on Thursday was a 64 from Gavin Coles. On Friday, Jose Maria Olazabal led the field with another 64. On Saturday, Zach Johnson did the same. On Sunday, Phil had the round of the day again with his 65, but five players shot a 66: Retief Goosen, Shane Bertsch, Luke Donald, Charlie Hoffman, and Phil Tataurangi (coming off a 77 the day before). So the field composite was 64-64-64-66=258, two shots better than Phil's dominating performance. (The two shots from the water-ball on 18, it would seem.)

In fact, one of the most famous dominating victories in the history of championship golf didn't manage this feat. I refer, of course, to Tiger Woods' record 15-shot victory at the 2000 U.S. Open. (Don't ask me how it was record-setting; there were too many ways to count.) The remarkable thing is that Tiger shot the round of the day, or at least tied for it, on three of the four days! His opening 65 gave him a one-shot lead over Miguel Angel Jimenez. He followed that up with a 69, matching the performance of Joe Daley and Dave Eichelberger, neither of whom I've ever heard of, which is weird. And his closing 67 was one shot better than any other round recorded that Sunday, beating Vijay Singh's 68 by a stroke. It's not exactly shocking that he won this tournament going away. But on Saturday, Tiger shot a 71. Now, that was even-par, which is not exactly a bad round at a U.S. Open. It was also tied for the second-best round of the day, along with Michael Campbell. But Ernie Else managed to beat the entire field by three strokes that Saturday, recording a rather magnificent 68 that would propel him to a tied first-place finish among the mortal contingent of the field. Tiger, then, shot 65-69-71-67 for a record-setting 272, a tournament mark which stood until Rory McIlroy's insane performance in 2011. But the field composite was 65-69-68-68, a 271. In the most dominant performance in modern golf history, Tiger Woods didn't manage even to match the field composite. That's what Phil's been doing this week.

The key is, of course, that Phil managed to beat the field by four whole shots on a single day, and has also been right around the single-day lead for two rounds thereafter. This is not as impressive a win as Tiger's 2000 romp; it doesn't even yet look on pace to be as good as Phil's 2006 dominance at the BellSouth. (Though if he can produce another 64 and set the all-time 72-hole scoring record, that would change things a wee bit.) Tiger's having no one shoot a better score than he did on three of the four days at Pebble Beach in 2000 still strikes me as the single most impressive victory ever. But if Phil can hang on and play within one shot of the best round tomorrow, he'll have done something that I'd wager no one has done in my lifetime, at least. This is some damn fine golf.