The Coming 2014 Bloodbath

No, not that one. The more prominent coming 2014 bloodbath is the Senate elections, which, being the repeat of the 2008 cycle, which was veeery good for Democrats, what with Barack Obama's lengthy coattails and all, has lot of vulnerable Democrats needing to be defended. I'm talking about the 2014 governor's races. See, those are, by and large, repeats of the 2010 cycle, which kinda sucked for Democrats. Lots o' opportunities for us to pick up territory. Let's review!

I'd rate the following as Republican incumbents with worse than toss-up chances at being re-elected:

Michigan: Gov. Rick Snyder
Pennsylvania: Gov. Tom CorbettMaine: Gov. Paul LePage
Ohio: Gov. John Kasich
Florida: Gov. Rick Scott

This placement might be a slight reach on Kasich, but I think he's been reasonably controversial like most of these guys. These five states have 77 combined Congressional districts, nearly 18% of the nation's total. That's a big deal if we can flip these states.

Genuine toss-up contests with Republican incumbents:

Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker


Other places, like Gov. Brian Sandoval of Nevada, Gov. Terry Branstad of Iowa, Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico, maybe the term-limited seat held by Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona, are plausible second-tier pick-up opportunities. The Rick Perry fiasco in Texas might create some entertaining chaos there.

We'll probably lose Arkansas, a rather modest loss, and probably pick up Rhode Island from Independent Lincoln Chafee. So it's a bunch of probable pick-ups, a toss-up in the most polarized state in the nation, and a bunch of further possible pick-ups, and essentially no risk of meaningful losses. (I mean, one could always be surprised, but we're only really playing defense in blue states: CA, HI, OR, CO, MN, IL, MD, NY, CT, MA, VT, NH. I don't see a lot of looming losses there, aside from the aforementioned Arkansas.) Should be a fun side to the night, even if the Senate stuff is miserable.