Catchers
Travis d'Arnaud, R
Juan Centeno, R
Infielders
Ike Davis, 1B, L
Wilmer Flores, 2B, R
Jose Reyes, SS, S
David Wright, 3B, R
Josh Satin, 1B, R
Ruben Tejada/Wilfredo Tovar/Omar Quintanilla, SS
Outfielders
Shin-Soo Choo, LF, L
Matt den Dekker, CF, L
Juan Lagares, RF, R
Eric Young, Jr., LF/2B, S
Andrew Brown, OF, R
Starting Pitchers
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Jon Niese, LHP
Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Rafael Montero, RHP
Relief Pitchers
Bobby Parnell, RHP
LaTroy Hawkins, RHP
Vic Black, RHP
Jeurys Familia, RHP
Josh Edgin, LHP
Scott Rice/Darin Gorski/Jack Leathersich, LHP
Carlos Torres, RHP
Notes & Moves
The catching situation I already detailed in this post. d'Arnaud is the starter, Centeno is the backup and more-than-adequate defensive replacement if you need to take Travis out or rest him for a few innings for whatever reason (or just because he's a catcher).
The outfield requires, I think, less work than one might think. Lagares has undoubtedly earned a spot, having accrued 3.2 fWAR in just 102 appearances and 345 plate appearances. Yes, defense is responsible for over 2 of those wins, but the defense is for real. Then you have den Dekker, Young, and Brown, the other three members of the team's outfield mix this year. They all have strong cases to be made in favor of substantial playing time. Eric Young's put up 2.0 fWAR for the Mets in 70 games, with 4 runs above average from fielding and, spectacularly, 8.2 runs from baserunning. He's been a solid hitter, and I think the team could and should look for more from their everyday lead-off hitter and left fielder, but he deserves at least a part-time role with significant usage as a pinch-runner. His ability to play second base also helps, as we'll see in a while. Brown can crush the ball, gives you a real right-handed power bat off the bench and the ability to get an extra righty bat in against left-handed starters. And den Dekker has good enough defense that he has consistently pushed Lagares to a corner spot even though Lagares is pretty clearly a Gold Glove defensive talent in center field. If that's for real at all, and if he can be the defensive difference-maker the Mets hope he can be, that's worth putting a bat with good power and good speed but poor contact skills in the lineup, for at least 400 at-bats I'd think, and some innings as a defensive replacement.
That's four pretty good outfielders, but it doesn't include any star hitters, and the Mets need a star hitter or two. So I say sign Shin-Soo Choo, to a reasonable, multi-year contract. He gets on base well, he has better power than most people on the Mets right now, you wouldn't be paying him beyond his age-35 season, and in the past he's been a good defensive outfielder. This year he's been a disaster in center field, but should be serviceable at worst in a corner spot, especially playing next to den Dekker and Lagares. The way I'd use these players would be to say that Choo and Lagares would be every-day fixtures, with the occasional day off over the course of the year. The defensive arrangement would depend on the third guy. Most often that would be den Dekker, and you'd go Choo-den Dekker-Lagares left-to-right. Against left-handed pitchers you'd put in Andrew Brown, and go Brown-Lagares-Choo. Occasionally you'd mix in Young, and it would be Young-Lagares-Choo. On Juan's days off, Matt would take over center, and against lefty starters who are especially tough on lefties you could go Young-Lagares-Brown to give Choo a rest.
Now for the infield. David Wright is the obvious part. But the aspect of my plan that really stands out is the shortstop. To my mind, not signing Jose Reyes was the worst mistake of Sandy Alderson's tenure as GM, and just as the Phillies made up for trading Cliff Lee by signing him as a free agent the next off-season, the Mets should make up for that error by taking Jose's contract off Toronto's hands. They claim to have the payroll flexibility, after all, and Reyes would fill the team's two biggest holes: shortstop and lead-off. That's why I think they should get Reyes. How they get him is another story. My feeling is that the Jays might find interesting Lucas Duda (to take over Adam Lind's part of their 1B/DH tandem), Daniel Murphy (to provide some stability and offense at second base), and Dillon Gee (to bolster the rotation). I would also be okay throwing in a younger prospect or two, perhaps a pitcher like Gabriel Ynoa or a position prospect such as Kevin Plawecki (to replace the gaping hole left by d'Arnaud, who obviates the Mets' need for another good catcher) or one of the Mets' numerous minor-league shortstops like Wilfredo Tovar or Gavin Cecchini. I don't know if the Jays would accept such a trade, and it would seem a little too good to be able to get a player like Reyes for a bunch of guys who don't really fit into the Mets' plans anyway (except Gee, whose loss I'll address in a bit), but if this could be made to happen it would really make the team.
The impact of that trade would be that I'd go with Wilmer Flores as the starting second baseman, Ike Davis as the starting first baseman, and have Josh Satin on hand to platoon with Ike and someone, Ruben Tejada or Omar Quintanilla or maybe Wilfredo Tovar, on hand as a backup middle infielder. Perhaps start with one of the former and hope to get the latter at mid-season or something. Note that since EYJ can play second in a pinch, as can Satin, there's less need for a designated backup there. Also, if the Jays would prefer Flores to Murphy, I'd be okay keeping Murph instead.
The Opening Day lineup would be, if I were the manager as well as the G.M., Reyes-Choo-Wright-Davis-d'Arnaud-Flores-Lagares-den Dekker. Those first three would be a fixture; after that it would, of course, be more mix-and-match over the course of the season, and to be honest I'm not sold on any particular permutation of the three right-handed bats in the 5 through 7 spots. I could see the argument for any of those guys hitting in any of those three spots.
As for pitching, I've maintained that the Mets shouldn't acquire a veteran starter on a guaranteed Major League contract for next year. But I would change my mind in a heartbeat if replacing one of the guys in their rotation, preferably Dillon Gee, could help acquire Reyes. Could it? Well, the Blue Jays have virtually no pitching lined up for next year after R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, and pitching has been a big problem all year. Also, since Dillon's 12-strikeout masterpiece against the Yankees on May 30th, he's put up a 2.40 ERA with a 9-3 record. That whole time he's only had three below-average starts by Game Score, against five starts with at least a GS of 69. Dillon Gee, in other words, is good. But he's not exactly an irreplaceable, dominant ace that the Mets would be fools to part with. Even during that good stretch he's had 87 strikeouts in his 123.2 IP. Replacing Dillon Gee with some veteran free-agent starter, as Sandy Alderson was suggesting he might look to sign, would be a fairly lateral move for the Mets, and while it would involve spending more in 2014 it wouldn't necessarily involve blocking anyone for 2015. The Jays, meanwhile, are a smaller-market team who might like getting someone as good as Gee at a bit of a discount.
The rotation, then, would be Wheeler and Niese, the established good pitchers for the Mets, then the veteran free agent, then Mejia and Montero, who are both more question-marks but are both loaded with talent. Syndergaard would be available as a mid-season reinforcement, for the inevitable injury or maybe to trade that veteran starter guy for some prospects if everything's going swimmingly.
Then we come to the bullpen. Parnell's the established closer. I'd love to resign LaTroy Hawkins, he's been great this year and still has all his velocity even at his advanced age. He's suggested he might not retire as previously planned, too. Vic Black and Jeurys Familia slot in as hard-throwing right-handed middle relievers. Then we've got Josh Edgin and someone else as the lefty specialists; the someone else could be Scott Rice if his arm is still attached to his body, as he's been solid this year, or it could be Darin Gorski, a minor-league lefty starter for the Mets who may profile better in relief, or it could be Jack Leathersich. That's more likely at mid-season, if he can cure whatever was ailing him at AAA. Ultimately you'd like to see Leathersich become a genuinely dominant back-end short reliever, possibly a set-up man. Then as a long reliever/spot starter you've got Carlos Torres, who's been getting a wee bit shelled of late but has been solid in that role of ultimate ambiguity all year.
Put it together and I think this 25-man roster would be a properly good team, and a quite possible contender for at least a Wild Card spot. It wouldn't involve giving up any current team assets that aren't a bit expendable, and assuming the Mets are sufficiently terrible from here on in to get a top-10 draft pick they wouldn't lose their pick for signing Choo. Obviously the big wild card/ambitious gambit is the Reyes trade. Leave that trade out and you could either go with some combination of Tejada/Quintanilla like this year and, a few months in perhaps, Tovar, or you could look to sign a free agent. None of them appeal to me remotely as much as Reyes, but if he can't be had the team might just have to settle there. I'd probably be inclined to go with the internal fix, hope that Tejada recovers a bit of his line-drive stroke, and look for Tovar to become the light-but-not-no-hit, good-glove shortstop going forward.
That, in as much of a nutshell as I can manage, is my ambitious vision for how to make the 2014 Mets not suck despite the loss of the best pitcher in baseball.
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