Sunday, October 6, 2013

We Told You So

If you ask people whether the Iraq War was a mistake, most of them will say that it was. Like, two-thirds or more of them will say that. If you ask in 2013, at least. But if you asked people in 2003 whether they supported the war while it was starting up, most of them said they did. Only a few radical liberal types opposed it. You'd think that the fact that most people now agree with the substantive position they were advancing ten years ago would have had some sort of vindicating effect. Nope. As Paul Krugman likes to say, "it remains true ... that for the most part you’re not considered serious about national security unless you were wrong about Iraq." Apparently having been right is not a sufficient defense to the charge of having been a liberal dissident from a mainstream center-right consensus.

Well, it looks like the liberal dissidents might get proven right again. As Krugman himself notes, not surprisingly, the supposedly neutral political establishment has long just sort of assumed that Republicans were highly competent at governing, that they were the party of hard-nosed pragmatists to the Democrats' well-meaning but ineffectual idealists. But now the Republicans have shut down the government. In what they practically admit is a temper tantrum. Competence! No, what we're seeing this week is a party that is fundamentally unfit to be even a small part of the business of governance. And this is not even one tiny bit of a surprise to those of us who've been paying attention the last decade-plus. By which I mean, of course, liberal dissidents. We've been saying that the Republicans were unfit to govern since, well, since forever, but especially since the events of the Bush Administration.

The key, I think, lies in two realizations. First, that Republicans honestly don't care about doing government well. They may even be ideologically hostile to it. After all, according to Saint Ronald, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." Government is never the solution, just the problem when it tries to be the solution. So why bother trying? Or more to the point, governing competently provides strong empirical evidence rebutting the central claim of Republican ideology, namely that there's no such thing as competent government. Much better to bungle things, or even better, not to deliberately bungle things but to put people in positions of power who are woefully unsuited for them, with bungling the inevitable result, and then talk about how the government always bungles everything!

That's the substantive reason why Republicans are unfit to govern; the other is tactical. Among the virtues of democratic politics is supposed to be that it provides incentives to the greedy, unprincipled politician nevertheless to do the right thing, because doing the right thing keeps you in power. It's sort of like the way capitalism claims to harness private self-interest to create common good, and about as successful, namely, somewhat in general but with gaping exceptions. But that requires, well, rational self-interest on the part of our greedy, unprincipled politicians. Republicans, however, have bought their own hype, specifically the "reality-based community" hype. Here's that passage again, from the original Ron Suskind article:
The aide said that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people who ''believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.'' I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ''That's not the way the world really works anymore,'' he continued. ''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.''
I don't really have cause to analyze this quote afresh. For my purposes the point is that this kind of thinking has crept from the substantive areas of Republican thinking, and in particular the foreign policy substantive areas, to the strategic and tactical areas. The far-right flank of the Congressional Republican Party, in making its demands of leadership as to how they conduct themselves in dealing with the rest of the government, does not draw on, you know, reality. There's not even an attempt to understand what actions will lead to what consequences. It's government by slogan, except it's not just government by slogan, it's maneuvering by slogan. And the thing about detaching yourself from reality is that you don't actually escape it, and sooner or later reality comes back to bite you in the ass. Hard.

For the "are Republicans fit to govern?" purpose, though, the crucial thing is that you won't see it coming. If you truly escape the reality-based community, you lose the ability to know when you're about to make a huge mistake. Hell, you sort of commit in advance to not knowing when you're about to make a huge mistake. That would be listening to the evidence, after all, which is apparently a sign of weakness. So you make huge mistakes, which is to say, you don't avoid the kinds of behavior that will be even a predictable disaster. The combination of these two features is that Republicans have no inherent interest in governing well and lack even the capacity to understand their supposed incentives to do so anyway. That's a dangerous combination, and it all adds up to being deeply and fundamentally unfit to govern. And people like me have known about this since, well, since the reality-based community thing, and since Hurricane Katrina at least. And we've been saying it. Finally, finally the Republicans have misbehaved badly enough that some mainstream types are noticing their fundamental unsoundness, perhaps on the same scale as what happened during Katrina.

So on behalf of we liberal dissidents, who have seen through the Republican Party all these years and whose positions reality has almost inexorably born out over time, and who never ever get credit for having been right, and who are never ever considered to maybe, just maybe, be right the next time too, I just want to say, we told you so.

No comments:

Post a Comment