The Deserving Silver Sluggers

It's baseball awards season again, which means it's time for some blog posts by this random baseball fan about who should've won various awards. Comeback Player of the Year doesn't really merit its own post, though. Rivera was obvious, and for the NL, well, I thought Marlon Byrd was a really good candidate but part of what he was coming back from was a PED suspension, so I can't really complain about the Liriano pick. (Fun fact, though, this was Liriano's second win!) No, this post is about the Silver Sluggers, which are being announced as I start typing but will be done getting announced by the time I'm done. So I'll say both who did win and who should've won. Note that the award doesn't distinguish between the different outfield positions, just giving three awards to "outfielders" generally, but I'll try to give one to a center fielder in each league unless that's just implausible. The stats I'll be referring to generally are the basic average/on-base/slugging line, home runs, doubles, triples for relevant players, runs scored and driven in, weighted on-base average (wOBA), weighted runs created (wRC), adjuted wRC (or wRC+), and batting runs above average. Those last few are Fangraphs creations that use linear weights to determine the offensive value of each plate appearance. I've never really worked with unadjusted wRC before, but it seems like it might be a decent way of measuring just pure aggregate production. We'll see!


National League

Catcher
Real winner: Yadier Molina, STL, .319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 44 2B, 68 R, 80 RBI, .362 wOBA, 80 wRC, 134 wRC+, 20.8 batting runs
Deserved it: Yadier Molina.
There's a case to be made for Buster Posey, who had slightly more batting runs than Molina and sported a .294/.371/.450 line. It's tough to argue with a guy who led the league in hitting for most of the year, especially since it was genuinely somewhat of a down year for Posey. Also, Molina played 161 games. As a catcher. Yeah... Anyway, there are no other contenders, and I'm fine with Yadi.

First Baseman
Real winner: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI, .302/.401/.551, 36 HR, 36 2B, 103 R, 125 RBI, .404 wOBA, 128 wRC, 156 wRC+, 44.6 batting runs
Deserved it: Paul Goldschmidt.
So the story here is that Joey Votto didn't win it. He and Goldy have virtually identical aggregate production totals, with nearly identical batting averages, wOBA's, wRCs, and literally identical 156 wRC+ figures. But ultimately, Goldschmidt beat Votto in hits, doubles, home runs, runs scored, runs driven in, wOBA, and slugging percentage (by a lot). The only thing Votto wins at is drawing walks, and hence not making outs. That's very important, and it means that they were ultimately about as good as each other with Votto maybe slightly more productive, but I feel like using power as a tiebreaker here is pretty appropriate, and Votto had less of it.

Second Baseman
Real winner: Matt Carpenter, STL, .318/.392/.481, 11 HR, 55 2B, 126 R, 78 RBI, .381 wOBA, 116 wRC, 147 wRC+, 38.2 batting runs
Deserved it: Matt Carpenter.
Carpenter's emergence as a great player feels weird to me. He's sort of like what Daniel Murphy would be if Daniel Murphy were better. He's a natural third baseman being used as a second baseman, and he's, well, he's not a conventional leadoff hitter, possessing virtually no speed (though he did hit seven triples this year). But it's tough to argue with the average and the OBP. I had no idea he hit 55 doubles, I thought Machado was running away with that all year. Guess not. The closest contender, well, there isn't really one. The not-dead-yet remains of Chase Utley might be second. Yeah, it's that non-competitive; Carpenter just came from nowhere to be by far the best 2B in the National League.

Third Baseman
Real winner: Pedro Alvarez, PIT, .233/.296/.473, 36 HR, 22 2B, 70 R, 100 RBI, .330 wOBA, 75 wRC, 111 wRC+, 7.8 batting runs.
Deserved it: David Wright, NYM, .307/.390/.514, 18 HR, 23 2B, 63 R, 58 RBI, .391 wOBA, 84 wRC, 155 wRC+, 30.6 batting runs.
This is not a homer pick. Wright was a better hitter. I mean, c'mon, he beat Alvarez by 94 points of on-base percentage! Ninety-four! Oh, and despite hitting half as many home runs, he out-slugged him overall. Seriously, look at the difference between the wRC+ figures. Alvarez was slightly above average. Wright was dominant, by far the best overall hitter at the position in the league. This pick is defensible if and only if you interpret the Silver Slugger Award as the "hit the most home runs at the position" award, but then Carpenter, among others, is indefensible. Alvarez is probably also getting incidental credit for being on a good team, giving himself opportunities to both score and drive in runs without, y'know, actually making contact very much ever. I like Alvarez, don't get me wrong, but this is just a terrible choice.

Shortstop
Real winner: Ian Desmond, WSN, .280/.331/.453, 20 HR, 38 2B, 77 R, 80 RBI, .341 wOBA, 86 wRC, 116 wRC+, 12.1 batting runs.
Deserved it: Hanley Ramirez, LAD, .345/.402/.638, 20 HR, 25 2B, 62 R, 57 RBI, .442 wOBA, 71 wRC, 191 wRC+, 34.5 batting runs.
Look at that batting line. No, seriously, look at that batting line. Hanley's average is higher than Desmond's OBP. His OBP is closer to Desmond's SLG than to his OBP; his SLG is closer to Desmond's OPS than his SLG. I don't get this. I mean, I guess they're penalizing Hanley a lot for missing lots of playing time? Desmond led him in games played 158 to just 86, with Ramirez not even coming close to qualifying for the batting title. Troy Tulowitzki would've been a good compromise between playing-time and rate production, with 126 games, and like Hanley he led Desmond in all of AVG/OBP/SLG. He led Desmond in wRC despite the vastly less playing time. Personally I think mashing like Hanley should trump when you lead in overall runs above average, but Tulo's #2 on the list. Desmond's a clear third.

Outfield
Real winners: Andrew McCutchen, PIT, .317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 38 2B, 97 R, 84 RBI, .393 wOBA, 116 wRC, 155 wRC+, 41.8 batting runs;
Michael Cuddyer, COL, .331/.389/.530, 20 HR, 31 2B, 74 R, 84 RBI, .396 wOBA, 94 wRC, 140 wRC+, 24.5 batting runs;
Jay Bruce, CIN, .262/.329/.478; 30 HR, 43 2B, 89 R, 109 RBI, .344 wOBA, 93 wRC, 117 wRC+, 13.6 batting runs.
Deserved it: Andrew McCutchen, definitely. The other two spots are insanely competitive. Cuddyer's a good contender, if you decide to overlook the Coors Field thing a little bit, which is fair enough. Other possibilities include:
Shin-Soo Choo, CIN, .285/.423/.462, 21 HR, 34 2B, 107 R, 54 RBI, .393 wOBA, 122 wRC, 151 wRC+, 40.9 batting runs;
Jayson Werth, WSN, .318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 24 2B, 84 R, 82 RBI, .403 wOBA, 95 wRC, 160 wRC+, 35.6 batting runs;
Matt Holliday, STL, .300/.389/.490, 22 HR, 31 2B, 103 R, 94 RBI, .383 wOBA, 98 wRC, 148 wRC+, 32.8 batting runs;
Yasiel Puig, LAD, .319/.391/.534, 19 HR, 21 2B, 66 R, 42 RBI, .398 wOBA, 76 wRC, 160 wRC+, 29.4 batting runs; and
Carlos Gonzalez, COL, .302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 23 2B, 72 R, 70 RBI, .408 wOBA, 80 wRC, 149 wRC+, 23.9 batting runs
Note that all of those guys managed to combine power with not having an OBP of .329. Bruce is another entry in the Alvarez/Hardy "ignore all the outs 'cause he hits a bunch of long-balls" parade, though less egregious than at least Hardy. I'm inclined to say Cuddyer deserves to keep his because he won the batting title, though altitude-aided. And while it's obvious that Choo was the second-best-hitting outfielder in the NL this year, so much of that was getting on base, and in particular getting hit by pitches, that I think I'll give the third outfield spot to Werth, who combined tremendous on-base skills with much more pop. Puig, unlike Hanley, didn't keep up his insane hot streak long enough to overcome the lack of playing time, but watch the hell out for him going forward.

Pitcher
Real winner: Zack Greinke, LAD, .328/.409/.379, 19 H, 3 2B, 5 R, 4 RBI, 7 BB, 10 K, 10 wRC, 2.6 batting runs.
Deserved it: Zack Greinke.
This is perhaps the single most obvious of all of these awards. I did not expect to be able to sort my pitchers by batting runs above average to find the winner, on the theory that even the best-hitting pitchers are way below-average and so someone with 33 starts who hits .200 will be more "below average" than the relief pitcher who gets one plate appearance and walks, or whatever. I was wrong. Greinke led all pitchers in batting RAA and it wasn't close. He led in hits. No other pitcher with at least 10 plate appearances beat a 1-for-3 OBP. Seriously, the dude got on base at a good clip for any player, let alone a goddamn pitcher. That was one special season for pitcher hitting, especially because, unlike the likes of Micah Owing, he doesn't seem to have any pop. Clayton Kershaw's 8 runs scored, 10 driven in, home run (in a complete-game shut-out), and .241 on-base percentage were all respectable, as are Travis Wood's three (3!) home runs, but there's no doubt this is Greinke. The Dodgers should maybe not use a DH when he starts an interleague game?

American League

Catcher
Real winner: Joe Mauer, MIN, .324/.404/.476, 11 HR, 35 2B, 62 R, 47 RBI, .383 wOBA, 83 wRC, 144 wRC+, 25.6 batting runs
Deserved it: Joe Mauer.
The competition here is Carlos Santana, who for some reason blows Mauer, and everyone else, out of the water by unadjuted wRC, with 96. But Mauer beats him in each of AVG/OBP/SLG, basically just because his batting average is so much higher. (Interestingly their plate discipline stats aren't much different, so it's all about the balls in play.) I'm not sure it would've been wrong to give this to Santana, who led all not-in-Colorado-not-spending-half-their-time-in-left-field catchers in home runs, but it's certainly not wrong to give it to the guy who's getting on base 40% of the time either.

First Baseman
Real winner: Chris Davis, BAL, .286/.370/.634, 53 HR, 42 2B, 103 R, 138 RBI, .431 wOBA, 130 wRC, 167 wRC+, 51.4 batting runs.
Deserved it: Chris Davis.
Does it even need saying? There's no competition here. Those numbers would've been respectable for a slugging first baseman fifteen years ago. It's not fifteen years ago anymore. The next best AL 1B is Edwin Encarnacion, with 36 HR, 104 RBI, and a .272 average. Not even close.

Second Baseman
Real winner: Robinson Cano, NYY, .314/.383/.516, 27 HR, 41 2B, 81 R, 107 RBI, .384 wOBA, 112 wRC, 142 wRC+, 32.6 batting runs.
Deserved it: Robinson Cano.
Not a lot of competition at second base this year, really. Next best contender here is, say, Jason Kipnis or Dustin Pedroia. Cano out-homered them, combined. Not that that's the be-all-end-all, but further analysis wouldn't muddy the waters.

Third Baseman
Real winner: Miguel Cabrera, DET, .348/.442/.636, 44 HR, 26 2B, 103 R, 137 RBI, .455 wOBA, 144 wRC, 192 wRC+, 67.9 batting runs.
Deserved it: C'mon.
When your wRC would look dominant as a wRC+, you know you were good. He led all of baseball in AVG/OBP/SLG, and only missed on the HR and RBI crowns because of a certain Oriole first baseman's breakout. That would've been for his second consecutive Triple Crown. He's been the best hitter on the planet for four year now, and isn't going to lose the Silver Slugger for a while if he keeps playing third base. (Not that he necessarily, y'know, should.)

Shortstop
Real winner: J.J. Hardy, BAL, .264/.306/.433, 25 HR, 27 2B, 66 R, 76 RBI, .322 wOBA, 74 wRC, 99 wRC+, -0.8 batting runs.
Deserved it: Jed Lowrie, OAK, .290/.344/.446, 15 HR, 45 2B, 80 R, 75 RBI, .345 wOBA, 89 wRC, 121 wRC+, 15.5 batting runs.
Hardy was a below-average hitter. I rest my case against him. He's not the issue. The 25 bombs are flashy, but c'mon. Below. Average. Hitter. Two different guys beat him in slugging percentage despite only having one more combined home runs. They're the guys who should've been fighting for this award. Now, Jhonny Peralta beat Lowrie in all of AVG/OBP/SLG, by about ten or fifteen points in each case, but since the reason for Lowrie's substantial playing time advantage is that Peralta got suspended for performance enhancing drugs I'm not inclined to give him much benefit of the doubt for those missed at-bats. I haven't examined the outfield and DH/pitcher awards yet, but I really hope this one was the most ridiculous one they handed out this year. C'mon. Below average hitter. Shortstops suck, but they don't suck enough for that not to be a miscarriage of justice. (Interestingly, he and Alvarez are both low-contact, low-walk, big-home-run guys on good teams whose problems with making tons of outs got overlooked, but in other cases, like Molina and Carpenter, they picked guys with very different profiles. It's weird.)

Outfield
Real winners: Mike Trout, LAA, .323/.432/.557, 27 HR, 39 2B, 9 3B, 109 R, 97 RBI, .423 wOBA, 140 wRC, 176 wRC+, 61 batting runs;
Adam Jones, BAL, .285/.318/.493, 33 HR, 35 2B, 100 R, 108 RBI, .350 wOBA, 95 wRC, 118 wRC+, 14.4 batting runs;
Torii Hunter, DET, .304/.334/.465, 16 HR, 37 2B, 90 R, 84 RBI, .346 wOBA, 88 wRC, 117 wRC+, 12.4 batting runs.
Deserved it: Mike Trout, Adam Jones, Torii Hunter?
The weird thing is, I don't have a huge problem with these awards. It's weird how big a gap there is. If you rank MLB outfielders by batting runs above average, it's Trout, then a big gap, then thirteen NL dudes before you get to Jose Bautista. And honestly I think there's an argument for Bautista over Hunter, with Joey Bats pumping out 28 home runs even in a seriously down year. But none of the AL OF's with more batting RAA played a full season this past year, with Daniel Nava's 134 games played leading the bunch. The bunch, by the way, is Bautista, Nava, Ryan Rayburn, Colby Rasmus, and Wil Myers. None of them feel to me like they deserve to displace the consistent production of Jones and Hunter, though they were both quite flawed players, largely because they didn't draw enough walks. Strange crop of A.L. outfielders, and the voters made surprisingly good choices.

Designated Hitter
Real winner: David Ortiz, BOS, .309/.395/.564, 30 HR, 38 2B, 84 R, 103 RBI, .400 wOBA, 106 wRC, 152 wRC+, 35.3 batting runs.
Deserved it: David Ortiz.
This one's obvious. This was the year in which Ortiz set MLB records for most career, well, everything as a DH. He's had an amazing resurgence, and if he can keep it up for a few more years might make for a polarizing Hall of Fame candidate. This award is only remotely close if we let Edwin Encarnacion count, and he played most of his games at first base. Oh, and Ortiz beat him in AVG/OBP/SLG anyway. There aren't a lot of guys who really justify being designated a hitter anymore. Ortiz is the best of the bunch, no questions asked.

So, end of the day I agree with fourteen of the eighteen awards. The other four, Alvarez, Desmond, Bruce, and Hardy, are all cut from the same cloth: lots of home runs, low average, low OBP, and not remotely enough power to make up for the fact that they don't really do anything. Hell, they gave a Silver Slugger Award to a below average hitter. So it seems like, in some cases at least, the word "slugger" in "Silver Slugger" is still interpreted to just mean "home run hitter" very literally, which it shouldn't. Overall, though, I can't say these awards were too terrible.

Tomorrow, perhaps, or maybe later tonight if I feel like it and have the opportunity, I'll write up who I think should win the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player awards from each league. Stay tuned, I guess, if you're someone who stays tuned to my blog.