Juan Lagares is Getting Victimized by the Mike Trout Phenomenon

Continuing on the same theme as my last post. Terry Collins gave the following explanation for why Juan Lagares is not in the lineup tonight:

"Juan is the center fielder," Collins said Friday afternoon. "We’ve got to somehow get his stroke back. He’s starting to expand the zone a little bit right now. When we get him back to where he’s taking some of those pitches, his defense is something we need, and we need very much. But we’re not scoring. So we’ve got to figure out how to get some runs."

 "If any of you guys have a crystal ball and you know when they’re going to hit it good, call me. Call me early, so I can put him in there," Collins said. "Tonight I want to get Bobby in there, get some lefties in the lineup tonight. And tomorrow Juan and Chris will be both back in there and the lefties will have a day off. I’m not concerned defensively. What I’m more concerned about is we’ve got to start putting some runs on the board."

 "I’m real comfortable with [Granderson] in center field," the manager said. "This guy can play center for you every day if we needed to. Right now, the defensive side, even though I’m a big believer in defense and the importance of defense, we’re not scoring. We’ve got to come up with some way to come up with some runs on the board. So I’m trying to put guys up there I think will drive in some runs."

 "[Outfield] is where we have replacements. We’ve got five guys who can play. And you’ve got to get playing time for them. That means somebody can’t play. And, right now, we’re trying to play the guys who can give us some offense. And not that [Lagares] can’t. But right now he’s not. To put him back out there, now you’re talking about pinch-hitting for him. And if you get the lead late in the game is when you want him in the game. So there are no easy answers.

 "I know it’s easy to talk about afterward that he should have been out there. We didn’t score, so it didn’t matter who was out there."

There's a lot that I could say in response to this. I could go line-by-line and say why each individual assertion makes no sense. Very few of them make any sense. His last line, for instance: it doesn't matter who was in the field only if it was guaranteed that the Yankees would score at least one run against you, but in fact the only run they did score could well have been prevented by having Lagares in center field.

But that's not the point. The point is that his overall analysis is, I want offense, not defense, so Lagares sits. Never mind that the team has already given up three runs due to lousy defense. The point is that the question whether to play Lagares is not offense vs. defense. It's not anything vs. anything. There just are no cogent arguments to the contrary. Lagares is second among players on the roster who have at least 10 plate appearances in wRC+. His platoon split has been only a modest one: he is crushing left-handed pitching this year, but has been league average against righties. He's one of the team's best offensive players. Yeah, he's had a few lousy games, but so has David Wright. So has the entire Mets lineup the past two nights. Lagares had bugger all to do with the back-to-back shutouts.

So what gives, Terry Collins? I have a theory, and it relates to the best player in the game, Mike Trout. Trout is a very good defensive center fielder, perhaps the best in the American League. He's a great baserunner. Oh, and he's one of the best hitters in the game, hitting for both an elite average and also lots of power. Each of the past couple of years, he was nearly as good purely as a hitter as Miguel Cabrera. And that was on top of his huge, huge advantage in running and fielding. But my theory is that that, rather than making everyone see that, given the narrow gap in hitting between the two, Trout was clearly the better player, Trout's secondary skills have made people think less of him. Because he is, after all, a Speed And Defense Center Fielder, while Cabrera is a slugging first baseman. A slugging first baseman playing third base, no less! A luxury! (I actually heard someone say once that Cabrera was the most valuable player because, by being willing to play third, he allowed his team to get Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez into the lineup.)

In other words, Trout's hitting doesn't really stand out all that much compared to his other skills, so it's easier to overlook it. Miguel Cabrera's a hitter and nothing else, so you focus on his hitting. Even more than with Mike Trout, Lagares's hitting is not his most notable asset. That's his defense, which is something like superlative. So there's a tendency to assume that this gives him a comparative disadvantage on offense, or something. But unlike economics, baseball doesn't work that way. There isn't necessarily a comparative advantage at all; it's entirely possible for one player to just have an absolute advantage in everything. Juan Lagares has an absolute advantage over all the Mets' other outfielders in everything. He's a better hitter and he's a better fielder. Granderson might have an advantage in hitting against righties, and Abreu might be about as good versus righties as Lagares right now. But that's it. There should never be any justification for putting three other outfielders ahead of Juan Lagares, except to give him the occasional day off.

So it doesn't matter whether Terry Collins's remarks above sound kind of logical, if there's some logic behind why this particular day is one when it makes relatively more sense to leave Lagares sitting on the bench. Based on the talent levels of the various players, we may just conclude in advance that this will never actually be the correct decision. Never ever. So stop it, Terry Collins. Don't think about whether or not to put Lagares in your starting lineup each day, playing center field. Just do it, the way you put Wright and Murphy in there every day without thinking. He's the core of your team, like they are. Think about what to do with the other two outfield spots. Think about how to rotate Granderson, Abreu, Young & Young through those two spots. Just don't think that Lagares should be part of that rotation. He's the eye of the storm.

Oh, and while we're at it, play Wilmer Flores at shortstop, too.