Meet the (2016) Mets

Well. That sucked. I mean, first it was awesome, and then it sucked. That's true of the whole year, and also of each individual game. Good lord, has a team ever lost a World Series where it led every single game before? And four of them after the seventh inning? Jeez those Royals are obnoxious to play against. For many of the same reasons that, for a neutral fan, they're a really cool team and a great story. But... jeez. Break up the Royals, man.

Anyway, National League Champions and all, and at least this time our losing didn't mean the Yankees won. (In fact, the Mets were playing baseball 26 days later than the Yankees were, woohoo! Which is presumably a record, actually, since the playoffs were shorter in 1986.) But now the Wheel of Time turns and seasons come and pass; 2015 is over and the 2016 season, in the form of the off-season leading up to it, is upon us. So let's take a look at the 2016 New York Mets as they stand now, and some thoughts of mine about what should be done to make sure we get more meaningful October baseball last year.



First of all, here, as I see it, is the incumbent 2016 Mets roster:

Travis d'Arnaud, starting catcher
Lucas Duda, starting first baseman
Dilson Herrera, starting second baseman
Wilmer Flores, starting shortstop
David Wright, starting third baseman
Michael Conforto, starting left fielder
Juan Lagares, starting center fielder
Curtis Granderson, starting right fielder
Kevin Plawecki, backup-ish catcher
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, fourth outfielder
Ruben Tejada, utility infielder
Michael Cuddyer, pinch-hitter
Eric Young, Jr., pinch-runner (?)

Matt Harvey, starting pitcher
Jacob deGrom, starting pitcher
Noah Syndergaard, starting pitcher
Steven Matz, starting pitcher
(Zach Wheeler, starting pitcher)
Jon Niese, starting pitcher/reliever
Jeurys Familia, closer
Addison Reed, reliever
Hansel Robles, reliever
Erik Goeddel, reliever
Logan Verrett, reliever
Sean Gilmartin, reliever
Carlos Torres, reliever

Leaving as free agents, potentially at least, are Kelly Johnson, Bobby Parnell, Eric O'Flaherty, Jerry Blevins, Bartolo Colon, Tyler Clippard, Juan Uribe, Daniel Murphy, and, of course, Yoenis Cespedes.

A few notes about how I would use this incumbent roster, if there weren't any changes made between now and Opening Day. I would imagine Niese in the rotation until Wheeler gets healthy around mid-season, at which point he'd shift into a relief role; based on the post-season, he has the potential to thrive in that role. I would really, really like to see the team use Plawecki as more than just a standard back-up catcher. He's good enough that he should get two or three starts a week, I think, the benefit of which is keeping d'Arnaud fresh. Potentially it might be nice to see if Travis can play first base, so that when a lefty starter comes to town you could get him and Plawecki in the game at the same time. I was sort of guessing about how you'd fill out the bottom of the bench. If Tejada isn't healthy then you'd replace him with Matt Reynolds, and I went with EYJ rather than someone like Eric Campbell because the right-handed pinch-hitter role is probably filled by Cuddyer. A bit of guesswork is involved in the bullpen, as well, though honestly not really as much; the players I'm leaving off have minimal major league experience and everyone I've included has looked pretty good.

With this team I'd probably go with a default starting lineup of Granderson-Wright-Conforto-d'Arnaud-Duda-Flores-Lagares-Herrera.

I think this is a pretty good team. I don't think it screams juggernaut, but I have little doubt it would contend for the division. The strength is obviously the starting rotation; last night, as the game started collapsing in flames, I kept trying to get the mantra Harvey-deGrom-Syndergaard-Matz-Wheeler to run through my head. Have fun with that, other teams. So there's no work that needs to be done there. But I'll try to identify a few questions that need resolving, steps that need taking, or areas that need to be worked on to put the team in the best possible position to do what the Royals just did, and expunge the bad taste the very next opportunity.

Resign Jerry Blevins

The Mets have several left-handed relief options. You've got Gilmartin, who looked great all year, the perpetually injured and/or underperforming Josh Edgin, a rookie like Dario Alvarez. (Jack Leathersich, unfortunately, had his arm ripped apart by AAA manager Wally Backman, who left him swinging in the breeze during a 57-pitch inning right after he got sent down. He got Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter. I can't believe Backman still has a job.) Potentially we can add Niese to that mix. But there's one thing they pretty much all have in common: they're not lefty specialists. And the lack of a proper specialist hurt the team all year, ever since Blevins went down to a line drive that broke his forearm back in April. They signed him to be precisely that guy. And they still need that guy. So: resign Jerry Blevins.

Among the potentially interesting things that resigning Blevins would do is open up Niese as a potential trade chip. If the left side of the bullpen gets shored up, then maybe you consider trying to live with someone like Verrett as the fifth starter until Wheeler gets back. And with Blevins, Gilmartin, and the likes of Alvarez on board, Niese maybe then becomes surplus to requirements. He's still on a decent contract, so if some team thinks he can give them some league-average innings, he might have some value. Perhaps it would make more sense to let him occupy Wheeler's spot at first, hope he pitches well, and then try to trade him right when Wheeler arrives. But having Blevins on board would make the trade a lot easier to swallow, whenever it's executed.

Resign Juan Uribe

He just seemed to fit in really well on this team. Plus, David Wright needs a caddy, to give him one or two days off every week, and Uribe seems perfect for the job. And he's good off the bench. The back end of the bench needs shoring up, and Uribe seems the perfect man for the job. Also, he would push Cuddyer down the depth charts as a pinch-hitter, which would be nice.

Do Not Resign Daniel Murphy

He's hardly the only one of the free agents who's a goner. O'Flaherty, buh-bye. Probably the same goes for Parnell, with some regret, and for Clippard, and I don't really see too much reason to resign Kelly Johnson. Oh, and there's no way this team ends up with Bartolo back on it; he's too good a pitcher, still, to sign up for a couple of months keeping Wheeler's seat warm and then turn into a swingman or be traded god knows where. I imagine he'll get a nice contract, just not with us.

That only leaves a couple of departing free agents left to sort out. One of those being Daniel Murphy. But that's not a hard decision: pass. Murphy's a decent player, who may have taken a bit of a leap in terms of his offense this past season, and obviously put on a show against the aces of the National League in the playoffs. But as he then reminded us in the World Series, he's also not a second baseman. I think he'd pretty decent at third, but obviously he's not gonna play third for this team, not any time soon. He could maybe fit as a kind of super-utility player, getting reps at first, second, and third, but I doubt he'd accept such a role. And as a second baseman, I'm not sure he's a better overall player than Dilson Herrera, who's looked dynamic both at the plate and in the field in his limited big-league experience. In a couple of years I dunno that Murphy's even a better hitter than Herrera. It feels like a pretty serious downgrade, but my own impulse would be to just let Murph walk, and to be happy, more or less, with Herrera at second.

Is Wilmer Flores a shortstop?

I actually think he is. He's not a great shortstop by any stretch of the imagination and will never be confused for Rey Ordonez, but I think he can play the position. Especially with a more dynamic double-play partner than Daniel Murphy. When I've seen him play with Herrera I've actually thought they looked quite good together. And it's not like there's a superabundance of shortstops out there who are especially good. Arguably, if the roster can carry it, he could do with a defensive sub, someone like maybe Wilfredo Tover who could come in in the late innings any time the team was in front and prevent things like the Royals from happening. But I don't think there's any reason you can't have Flores as your everyday shortstop, assuming the rest of the infield isn't too defensively challenged.

Duda?

He hit 57 home runs the past two years, and that was with non-trivial missed time this year. So it's not remotely like you need to do something different at first base. It looks like Lucas has basically settled in as a solidly above-average player, with a good-but-not-great bat and solid if unspectacular first base defense (except against the Royals, ugh). But... he's awfully streaky, and while his hot streaks were very, very hot, they also lasted for a week apiece. Outside of that he was really, really cold. Basically I just don't think you have to consider Duda firmly ensconced at his position in a way you can't displace.

A Set-Up Man?

I don't think it's a bad bullpen in place heading into next year. Familia's the nastiest pitcher on the planet, three blown saves in the World Series notwithstanding. Reed has looked dominant since returning from AAA earlier this year, his meltdown last night notwithstanding. Robles looks pretty nasty. Goeddel and Verrett were very effective this year, as was Gilmartin. Indeed, I kind of wish some of them had gotten a few more innings in the post-season. Then there's guys like Vic Black and Zach Thornton kicking around AAA. Oh, and Rafael Montero, a somewhat forgotten name who might one of these days start contributing things again.

But what this bullpen doesn't really have is a second shutdown reliever. Now maybe that's just because those are hard to come by, but the Royals really demonstrate the utility of having multiple different guys at that back end who just come in and slam the door on people. Perhaps one of the aforementioned names might develop into just such a reliever, but I dunno that you can really count on that. So, I dunno. One more really dominant reliever to supplement Familia might be a nice addition. Of course, most dominant relievers on the free agent market are going to be looking for closer money, and teams with dominant relievers to trade are going to demand a closer's ransom. And I would definitely not favor bringing in a veteran closer type just for the sake of having a veteran closer type around; that worked out rather mediocrely with Clippard.

There are two arms, really, that I see on the free agent market who could make sense. One is Joakim Soria. He had a good bounce-back season split across Detroit and Pittsburgh, is only going to be 32 next season, and is at a sub-elite level where I could see him not demanding a closer's role outright. Especially since it's not much of an insult to be put second in line behind Familia. The other is Darren O'Day, the former Met who's spent the last four years being lights out for Baltimore (to the tune of a 1.92 ERA) but has also never been a closer. Now, maybe he's looking to be, but maybe he's fine remaining an elite set-up man. If they could string O'Day and Familia together at the back end of the bullpen, now that would start looking Royals-esque.

Whither Cuddyer?

It's pretty clear, I think, that Michael Cuddyer should not start games in the outfield anymore. Potentially he could get a few games at first base against left-handed starting pitching, but it's neither clear that Duda needs to be protected from lefties nor that Cuddyer's the best choice to platoon with him. That means you're looking at a pure pinch-hitter. Now, maybe he can be okay in that role. The last couple months of the season, after he returned from a DL stint to find a team that had like six additional hitters on it including Yoenis Cespedes, he became much more of a reserve/platoon/bench player, getting into 35 games of which he started just 18. And he played much better, hitting .287 with a .330 OBP and slugging .425. He walked barely at all but also didn't strike that much; his BAbip of .324 was only slightly above his career norms. Overall it was pretty decent production, and if you're gonna get that Michael Cuddyer, then he's a decent bench piece, maybe.

But then he stunk up the joint on the post-season, going a whopping 1-11 with no walks or extra bases. And he looked really bad in doing it. Truth be told, he looked pretty bad hitting .287 down the stretch. Realistically it looks like he doesn't have a lot of power left in his swing, and his late-season success may have been propped up by a fluky 26% line drive rate. And if we don't think Cuddyer can be even that sort of productive, then... is he really worth a roster spot?

No.

He's being paid money, it is true. But that's a sunk cost. If Cuddyer can't produce anything for this team then they should find a way to be rid of him, either by just cutting him or by trying to find some team willing to take on one-tenth of his salary in exchange for a mediocre prospect. But one way or another, I'd like to know that the 2016 Mets will not devote significant playing time to Cuddyer if he truly is as washed up as he seems.

One Big Upgrade

This team, as currently constructed, looks pretty good. Shore up the bullpen a little bit with guys like Blevins or O'Day and it looks even better. But... the lineup has taken a bit of a hit, compared to what they were rolling out late this year. You've essentially swapped Cespedes and Murphy out for Lagares and Herrera. So I think that the final piece needs to be one addition to the lineup. One big addition to the lineup. A genuine star player. Because the thing is, there aren't any holes in this offense. Assuming we buy Flores at short and have decent confidence in Herrera's ability to pair solid defense with decent hitting, and that Lagares at the very least doesn't get worse next year (even if he doesn't rebound from his down year in 2015), you've got something like league average or better all over the diamond. So in order to upgrade, you need to upgrade big. You've got to acquire the kind of guy who justifies pushing a pretty decent player to the side, or maybe trading them away.

I'm probably looking at the free agent market here, because I do not want to trade away any of our big five starting pitchers and trading away too many more prospects will start to leave the farm system bare. (You might need to be talking about trading someone like Amed Rosario, which I do not want to do.) And within the free agent market, I think we can safely rule out starting pitchers, catchers, third basemen, and anyone who's limited to a corner outfield role. There ain't no room at the inn for starting pitchers, d'Arnaud and Plawecki are as good a catching tandem as you'll find, Wright is going to play third base for this team until he can't anymore, and I think Granderson and Conforto should be able to consider their spots pretty much locked up. So that leaves middle infielders, first basemen, or center fielders--at least, guys who can play center. Any star-caliber players at those positions?

Chris Davis

At first base, there really is only one name worthy of discussion. Davis towers above the other free agent first basemen, and really, he towers above most of the other first basemen period. Between 2013 and 2015 he hit 100 home runs, and drove in 255 runs. If they decide that Duda's too streaky and inconsistent to be relied upon, Davis is the guy you'd look to. There are a few counterarguments that I see. One is that Davis put up his goofy numbers at Camden Yards, which is pretty much a band-box. Maybe his power doesn't translate to Citi Field. On the other hand, Nelson Cruz: 40 homers for the Orioles last year, 44 for the Mariners this year. The Mariners play in a way worse pitcher's park than the Mets do. So maybe the power would translate.

Then there's the specter of his 2014 campaign, when he hit just .196. Now, that sells him short; he still hit 26 home runs and was nearly league average at the plate. That's not really good enough, for a first baseman who's gonna be paid handsomely. So if you think there's a real chance of just getting nothing out of Davis for a whole year, then picking him instead of Duda because you think Lucas isn't consistent enough doesn't really make sense. On the other hand I strongly suspect his down year was just a product of not having his therapeutic use exemption for Adderall, and that if he remembers to file the paperwork we can more or less expect the 2013/15 form from him going forward.

But then there's Lucas Duda, the guy we'd be casting aside. Because the thing is that Lucas Duda seems like he could become the next Chris Davis. He's got silly raw power, and for the past couple of years he's seemed on the verge of breaking through to that next level where he can use it on a regular basis the way that Davis does. My impulse, therefore, would be to say that Davis doesn't make a lot of sense for the Mets. Better to give Duda another year to try and break out, or at least establish that his current 3-4 WAR performance level can be relied upon going forward.

Ian Desmond

He's pretty clearly the class of the shortstop market. From 2012 through 2014, Desmond hit .275/.326/.462, and more or less solved his earlier defensive maladies. Then came this year, when he hit just .233/.290/.384. Which is pretty bad. Indeed, Wilmer Flores bettered all three of those marks. And the thing is, Flores is the same age now that Desmond was when he got his 21-game cup of coffee with the Nats in 2009. Desmond's hitting through when he was the age that Flores will be in 2017 was at about the level Wilmer is at now, if not a bit worse. Who, then, is really more likely to hit like vintage Ian Desmond in 2016? I think it might be Flores. They're actually similar kinds of players, really, except that Wilmer Flores is a New York Mets folk hero.

I'll be pretty upset if I hear that the Mets are going after Desmond.

Ben Zobrist

This might be a bit more interesting. Zobrist's calling card is positional flexibility. He hasn't played fewer than three different positions in a season, for non-trivial numbers of games at each, since his first couple of seasons with the Rays when he was exclusively a shortstop. This year he spent significant time at second and the outfield corners; he can also probably play third base. And he's really good at hitting! His OPS+ was 120 this year, following years of 116, 112, 137, and 131. Signing Zobrist would mean having him be the primary second baseman but also get some starts elsewhere. Probably he'd substitute for Uribe as Wright's relief. It would also mean hoping that his defense hasn't actually atrophied as much as it seemed to have this past year--although he looked nice in the playoffs. Then there's the age factor: he'll be 35 next year. I might think the best approach to signing Zobrist at this point would be to give him genuinely big money for just two years. Say, 2/$40 million. He's liable to be worth that money in the short run, and then you're not tied down to a big contract in 2018 and 2019 if he does decline. But something more like 4/$60 million wouldn't be too terribly different.

Either way, signing Zobrist would be very, very interesting. I think it's a much better avenue to pursue than any yet discussed. But I dunno. I like Herrera, and I'm not sure that our roster is very well constructed to take full advantage of Zobrist's positional flexibility (basically because we have solid everyday players at both corner outfield spots). 

Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes

In the most recent MLB Trade Rumors 2016 Free Agent Power Ranking, seven position players are mentioned by name. Davis, Desmond, and Zobrist are three of them. Justin Upton and Alex Gordon are two others who don't really need to interest us. Upton is exclusively a corner outfield guy, and Gordon has only played left field. Admittedly he's really good at playing left field, which makes you think about maybe using him in center, but I dunno that he's the kind of good left fielder who would be able to make that transition.

Then there's Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes. The basic idea with each is the same: they're really good hitters who've primarily been corner outfielders but are really good at that and can probably play a decent center field. They are, however, quite different stylistically. Cespedes is a free-swinging slugger who's typically played left field; Heyward's more about controlling the strike zone, using a great eye at the plate to get on base, and running well. (Though he's always given off the promise of more power since a 27 home run campaign back in 2012.) Overall I think Cespedes is probably the better offensive threat; Heyward, however, is younger. Like, he'll be 26 next year, and is a free agent. (Though Cespedes, who'll be 30, is not exactly old.) And he's also been, not just a good corner outfielder but an elite one his whole career. And he's played enough center field that it seems like he can do that. One thing they do have in common is great throwing arms, though.

Either of these signings would be a very similar plan. They would involve demoting Lagares to the role of fourth outfielder, and having him perhaps take maybe one start a week from all three of the starters, with Heyward/Cespedes shifting over to the corner when necessary. (Of course, it would be really nice if Cespedes could learn to play right field to enable spelling Granderson without having to shift Lagares out of position.) I think we saw down the stretch in 2015 that this can really work. So if I were running things, this is what I'd pursue. I'd want to give either Heyward or Cespedes a really big contract to play (mostly) center field for the New York Mets for many years to come.

And the bottom line is that I think the Mets should be willing to spend big on acquiring one offensive player this year. I've seen some analysis of when the Mets' "window" is during which they can expect to contend. Implicit in these discussions is taking the current approximate payroll as a given going forward, such that when the current raft of young players start to be paid what they're worth, we'll have a hard time retaining them, at least if we also want to add to the roster in other ways. But, you know, that cannot be the premise of this Mets team going forward. They've always said that the money will be there once the team gets good enough to draw more money. Well, we just played into November, and the team looks to be competitive going forward. It's time to make good on the promise and bring the payroll back up to what a New York team should be spending. That won't, and shouldn't, all happen at once. Mostly I hope it will just be the gradual process of paying their current players what they deserve once they start having some bargaining power, but also this team should have room to add major pieces. Not just mid-tier free agents like Granderson, but top-of-the-line ones like Piazza, Beltran, and Santana. And the first of those, I think, should be either Cespedes or Heyward. I would lean toward Cespedes, ostensibly because of his fitting into the lineup better but also just because he's already there and fits in well and I'd like to keep him around. But either one would really be fine.

I have a feeling that if they did all of this, 2016 would be another very, very good year.

And here's what I'm thinking that roster might want to look like:

Catchers
Travis d'Arnaud
Kevin Plawecki

Infielders
Lucas Duda
Dilson Herrera
Wilmer Flores
David Wright
Juan Uribe
Ruben Tejada/Matt Reynolds/Wilfredo Tovar

Outfielders
Michael Conforto
Yoenis Cespedes
Curtis Granderson
Juan Lagares
Michael Cuddyer/Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Starting Pitchers
Matt Harvey
Jacob deGrom
Noah Syndergaard
Steven Matz
Jon Niese/Zach Wheeler

Relief Pitchers
Jeurys Familia
Darren O'Day
Addison Reed
Hansel Robles
Jerry Blevins
Erik Goeddel
Sean Gilmartin/Logan Verrett

Lineup
Granderson (L)
Wright (R)
Conforto (L)
Cespedes (R)
Duda (L)
d'Arnaud (R)
Flores (R)
Herrera (R)


Let's Go Mets!