Sunday, July 17, 2016

How To Use This Mets Roster

The Mets just recalled Michael Conforto from AAA Las Vegas, with fellow left-handed outfielder Brandon Nimmo being sent down in his place. (The latter move follows as a matter of course; Nimmo, a top prospect, needs to get consistent playing time, which he's definitely not going to get with the Mets with Conforto back.) Conforto was shockingly great last year after being called up directly from AA, was Ted Williams levels of great in April this year, and then was pitcher-with-a-bit-of-pop levels of awful from May 1st onward. May 1st was the day when he was kept in the lineup against Madison Bumgarner, one of the best left-handed starters in the world. I dunno if that's what caused the slump, but it makes for an awfully convenient marker. Anyway, he went down and was raging hot at AAA (his first exposure to the level! actually!), so now he's back. Makes sense.

Except it creates a bit of a sticky situation regarding the outfield configuration. Conforto is strictly a corner outfielder; until his stint in Vegas he had only ever played left field as a professional. Curtis Granderson is, at this point, also a corner outfielder, and like Conforto he's left-handed. Yoenis Cespedes, meanwhile, is the Mets' best position player. To start the year, he was playing a lot of center field, flanked by Conforto in left and Granderson in right, with the team thinking it could live with Cespedes's below-average defense in center in return for getting those three bats into the lineup simultaneously. But Cespedes keeps being banged up with minor injuries, and he suspects that the toll center field takes on his legs may be contributing to that. So they'd really like to keep him in left field as often as possible, where, as it happens, he's a Gold Glove defender. That, of course, leaves them with no center fielders, but not to worry, because we've got Juan Lagares, who ought to be a legitimate contender for the Platinum Glove award (given to the Gold Glover in each league who's the best overall defensive player) any time he plays a full season, and who's also been hitting well to start the second half of the season (as well as on the entire year to date). Great! We've got four legitimately major league quality starting outfielders! Hooray!

...except, of course, you only typically play three outfielders. I mean, you could play four of them, but then you'd only have three infielders, which is probably a bad idea. So we have four deserving candidates for three spots. Whaddaya do?

Here's what: you play everyone. Some of the time.

Here's the alignment I'd try to go with. Let's assume that in the course of a week, you play seven days, and face five right-handed starting pitchers and two lefties. What I'd do is:

vs. RHP     Conforto     Lagares     Granderson
vs. RHP     Conforto    Cespedes   Granderson
vs. RHP     Conforto    Cespedes   Granderson
vs. RHP    Cespedes     Lagares     Granderson
vs. RHP    Cespedes     Lagares       Conforto
vs. LHP    Cespedes     Lagares     Granderson
vs. LHP    Cespedes     Lagares       Conforto

That gets Cespedes six starts and everyone else five, so everyone's getting regular rest, and approximately equal playing time. It only puts Cespedes in center field twice a week. Granderson and Conforto each get one game off against a righty and one game off against a lefty. Hopefully you're also able to align things to that Lagares is sitting against the righties who are toughest on righties, and then sit the lefties against the righties with the best changeups or whatever who have minimal or reverse splits. Of course, you can also pinch-hit late in the game with whoever's not in the lineup, including switching them in for one of that day's starters.

I'd also do something like this with the infield, where the nominal starters are, from left to right, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, and James Loney. The first three are all switch-hitters while Loney's a lefty, and right-handed Wilmer Flores can play any of the infield positions (or he could play third and have Reyes handle shortstop for a day). It's tempting to think that switch-hitters should be in the lineup every day, but everyone needs rest, so let's say they should each be starting six days a week. That's eighteen of the twenty-eight infield starts during the week, so let's split the other five evenly between Flores and Loney. Flores, then, gets two starts at first base and one each at the other three positions. The only remaining question is how to allocate Flores's starts against left-handed pitching. As it happens, Cabrera and Walker and Reyes have all been better against lefties than righties this year, and Loney, being left-handed, has been much worse against them. Not all of those trends hold up over the course of their respective careers, but Loney's does, so I think it's safe to say it's Flores at first against all the lefties, with all the switch-hitters staying in. So we've got:

vs. RHP    Reyes     Cabrera     Walker     Loney
vs. RHP    Reyes     Cabrera     Walker     Loney
vs. RHP    Flores     Cabrera     Walker     Loney
vs. RHP    Reyes       Flores      Walker     Loney*
vs. RHP    Reyes     Cabrera     Flores      Loney
vs. LHP    Reyes     Cabrera     Walker     Flores
vs. LHP    Reyes     Cabrera     Walker     Flores
*As noted, you could flip Reyes and Flores here.

Between the outfield and the infield, this alignment squeezes the nine starting-caliber infielders and outfielders on this team into the seven starting spots allocated for them on an equitable basis that gets everyone regular rest and manages a decent blend of keeping the defense decent without sacrificing too much offense. It also gives the team a bench with a couple of starting-caliber players on it every day. It does mean sitting potential left-handed bats in favor of the righties Flores and Lagares against some right-handed pitchers, but frankly that's okay. Playing every left-handed swinger against every right-handed starter just does not get those guys enough rest, and most importantly it puts Cespedes in center field far too often. Probably you'd want to configure it so that the two days when Conforto or Granderson are sitting against righties are also the days when Flores is sitting, so that you're never putting Lagares and Flores in the lineup against the same right-handed starter (except on Cespedes's off-days).

This roster has the potential for flexibility. They should really use it.

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