The 2011 New York Mets

Here's my analysis of how the 2011 Mets should be constructed. Fundamentally, my philosophy is this: there's a lot of good talent here, in fact in some places a surplus of talent, and I don't think it takes a whole lot to get back to contender status. I almost think, in fact, that you could find a contending team almost entirely constructed of players currently under Mets control.

General Manager: I really don't care. I'm fine with Omar Minaya, to be honest. It's not an important position for me; I don't know of anyone I particularly want to be GM-ing us, and I don't have many negatives associated with any of the names out there. I can see that retaining Minaya, while it might be a solid rational decision from a pure baseball standpoint, would conflict a little with the strategy of the next part.

Manager: Bobby Valentine. This is a huge part of the overall strategy, in addition to my just liking him a whole lot, since the philosophy in players is to make relatively minor changes and not do anything crazy, something needs to happen to break the apathy/disgust of the (in my opinion largely irrational) fans, and I can't imagine there's much better than Bobby Valentine as manager to do that. Joe Torre, Wally Backman also okay, though I doubt either of them is as good a manager as Valentine and I don't think either has an edge in terms of fan excitement capacity.

Current Players I Want Retained:

Josh Thole, Catcher
Ike Davis, First Baseman
Ruben Tejada, Second Baseman
Jose Reyes, Shortstop
David Wright, Third Baseman
Jason Bay, Left Fielder
Carlos Beltran, Center Fielder
Angel Pagan, Right Fielder
Chris Carter, Backup Outfielder
Johan Santana, Starting Pitcher
Mike Pelfrey, Starting Pitcher
Jon Niese, Starting Pitcher
R.A. Dickey, Starting Pitcher
Jenrry Mejia, Starting Pitcher
Hisanori Takahashi, Relief Pitcher
Bobby Parnell, Relief Pitcher
Pedro Feliciano, Relief Pitcher
Elmer Dessens, Relief Pitcher

Of these, Takahashi, Feliciano, and Dessens are free agents, and all will probably be highly coveted. I highly covet them. I'm pretty sure all the others are under team control. I think that these players cover a starting eight position players, one ace pinch-hitter, four-and-a-half starters, and half a bullpen quite well. Seriously, there's a lot of talent going around these players.

Holes Left To Be Filled:

Backup Catcher
Backup Infielder
Right-Handed Pinch Hitter
Another Utility Player
Half a Starting Pitcher, since Santana will miss some time early in the year
Three more relief pitchers, ideally including a left-hander and maybe a name closer

How To Fill Them:

I've heard the announcers say that Thole won't be able to play enough games that using just Henry Blanco as the back-up catcher would suffice. Could be. If so, I might be fine with Omir Santos in that role, maybe a quasi-platoon situation. If there's a decent backup catcher out there, that would be fine.
The Mets have several back-up infielders, like Luis Hernandez and Joaquin Arias. I have no particular brief for either of them, but they'd do. We don't need someone who can back up Reyes explicitly, since Tejada's a fine shortstop himself, just someone who can play a bunch at second.
I like Nick Evans as a right-handed bat off the bench, and he's a good utility guy, but again, no particular agenda in his favor. For the last spot, I don't think it's that important; with these many quality players ahead of the 13th position player, they would be unlikely to get that many at-bats.
Santana will miss the first half of the season, give or take, and we simply put need a starter there. Dillon Gee could be considered the default option, but I have no problem with going out and getting someone. I hear we're tight on money, though, and I also think that a rotation of Santana/Pelfrey/Niese/Dickey/Mejia for the second half is going to be wicked, so I don't feel a lot of impetus to get Cliff Lee or whoever.
Relief Pitchers: Eh, I'm not *that* particular. Somebody left-handed to help Perpetual Pedro out. Somebody else right-handed, just because we need them. Maybe Igarashi, or Sean Green. And then either another middle/long reliever or a name closer. I'm comfortable with Takahashi doing the closing, to be honest. But if there's someone good on the free agent market that we can get, Takahashi's great in other roles in the bullpen, too. Oh hey, here's a free agent closer... Mariano Rivera! That would be pretty cool, but probably won't happen.

Important Things:

Assuming he doesn't discover how to pitch in Winter Ball, Oliver Perez had better not be on our 25-man roster in late March. And though I'm fond of him, Luis Castillo had better not be, either. Eat the money, I don't care. They're worth a lot more off the team than sitting on the bench or playing sparsely.

Reasonably Big Changes I'm Open To:

If I were the GM, I would basically not be that interested in changing Davis/Reyes/Wright/Bay/Beltran/Pagan, and I'd guard Santana, Dickey, and Mejia jealously. Likewise, I'd go hard after Takahashi, Feliciano, and probably Dessens, and keep Parnell. I like Tejada a lot, but I can concede that there might be better second basemen (offensively; he could win or deserve a Gold Glove!), and likewise with Thole. I notice Victor Martinez on the free agent market; if the Mets could get him, I think they should do it.

Poker Chips:

This leaves us with a fair amount of legitimate talent on this team that we don't really need, and could trade. Jesus Feliciano, Lucas Duda, Mike Hessman, Pat Misch, Manny Acosta, these are all guys who are genuinely competent players but don't look like they fit into this team. If there's a good reliever, starter, catcher, or second baseman out there we're interested in, it might be possible.

As for the money, I think this might be a case where the Wilpons should use a little Keynesian economics. We're in trouble right now. We've got a couple of essentially useless players, Perez and Castillo, under large contract. What that calls for is a shot of fiscal stimulus: a one-year bulge in the payroll to finance the bridge to 2012, by which time we'll have a lot fewer contracts and the ability to make a lot more choices. It would be a pretty good investment, I'd wager, both in terms of success and in terms of bringing in fans.

I think the team I've outlined above would be a pretty good one, to be honest. I think it might contend, or even possibly get to the playoffs. And it doesn't take a whole lot of shaking things up. Why should it? We added 9 wins this year over last year, and that was without half a Beltran, a quarter of a Reyes, a bit of Santana, any Mejia, and half a Bay. And it included Cora, Perez, Castillo, Maine, etc., who cost us noticeable games. And adding Bobby Valentine is probably worth a couple of wins, not because Jerry Manuel sucks but because Valentine is the best actual field manager out there. The team is young, with Thole, Davis, Tejada, Reyes, Wright, Pagan, Carter, Pelfrey, Niese, Mejia, and Parnell all not yet 29, and Dickey not yet 25 in knuckleball years. These are guys who are pretty good already, and ought to get even better as time progresses. In fact, while this team might project to 88 wins or so next year, it probably projects to even more wins the year after that. So that's what I think the Mets should do this off-season. And we'll see whether they follow this plan or a more radical one, starting in probably less than an hour!