More Mets Thoughts

Apparently the Mets and Red Sox are talking: Beltran (Boston wants) for either Daisuke Matsuzaka or Marco Scutaro (Mets want). I'd definitely do it for Matsuzaka, who would fill our pitching wants in a hurry. Scutaro would be the solution at second base. Obviously, if we trade Beltran, we move Pagan to center field and put who in right field? Nick Evans? Jason Pridie? Fernando Martinez? Daniel Murphy? Lucas Duda? All of which is a considerable trade down from Beltran. Basically, this trade makes sense iff you think that Beltran will have a year considerably below his career standards in 2011, which I'm not sure I do. I might do it for Matsuzaka, but I'm less convinced as to Scutaro.

As for the 2011 Mets, I've been working on some projections of the 2011 baseball landscape (obviously, informal ones, not the good kind like you get from an actual fancy projecting website or anything). My rough analysis has the Mets at about 86-87 wins, and the Phillies around 89-90 wins, with the Braves around 84 and the Nationals, Werth and all, around 70. So I think the Mets have a genuine shot for next year. And that was with the following assumptions about Mets personnel and production:
Thole, C, 1.7 WAR
Davis, 1B, 2.5 WAR
Castillo/Murphy, 2B, 1 WAR
Reyes, SS, 3.5 WAR
Wright, 3B, 5 WAR
Bay, LF, 2.5 WAR
Beltran, CF, 4.7 WAR
Pagan, RF, 3 WAR
Santana, P, 3 WAR
Dickey, P, 2.5 WAR
Pelfrey, P, 1.5 WAR
Niese, P, 1 WAR
???, P, 0 WAR
Rodriguez, RP, 3 WAR
Bench/Bullpen: 0 WAR

All of these numbers are basically career averages since the player's first full season, or over the last seven-eight-ish years for players who've been around for a long time. Maybe I'm optimistic on Beltran here, but I think I'm pessimistic on Dickey, Pelfrey, and Niese, and obviously I have us with a literally replacement-level, because unnamed, fifth starter. (The number for Santana is half his career average since his first full season, since we expect him to miss considerable time.) Point being? Yes, 2012 is the real goal, but don't let's forget, we're not actually in dreadful shape for 2011. Put approximately this team on the field, get a little lucky with good production (remember, we've got seven All-Stars on that list, of whom only one (Castillo) is really so old he's not of that same caliber anymore), and we could actually contend this very year.

And oh, as to Beltran. Yes, he's at the point where most players start to decline. But we don't actually know if he's declining yet. He missed a lot of time with one rather major injury, plus complications thereof, and was slow warming up from that. He was swinging the bat well and starting to look like his old self in center field by the latter stages of the season. If he is going to have a reasonably slow descent from here on in, I'm not convinced we want to get rid of him. Yeah, probably at some point convince him to shift over to right field as his range declines and let Pagan take over CF. But I don't see any reason why we can't sign him to a several-year contract, at a much lower rate than he's currently being paid, starting in 2012. I think I've heard he wants to finish his career as a Met. So if the impulse is trade him because he's leaving anyway, well, maybe not. Worth considering.