The Mets Could Win 90 Games Next Year

With very little effort on the part of GM Sandy Alderson, actually. Here are my projections for the front-line components of the team next year, making one big assumption that you'll see, in terms of WAR numbers. Notice that a replacement-level team wins something like 51.84 games, so we want nearly 40 WAR to produce a 90-win season. Here are my numbers:

Position Players:

David Wright (3B) 4.5 wins, Jose Reyes (SS) 4 wins, Ike Davis (1B) 4 wins, Angel Pagan (CF) 3 wins, Jason Bay (LF) 2.5 wins, Josh Thole (C) 1 win, Ruben Tejada (2B) 1 win, Lucas Duda (RF) 1 win

Starting Pitchers:

Johan Santana (LHP) 6 wins, R.A. Dickey (RHP) 4 wins, Jon Niese (LHP) 1.5 wins, Dillon Gee (RHP) 1.5 wins, Mike Pelfrey (RHP) 1.5 wins

That adds up to 21 WAR from the eight position players, and 14.5 WAR from the starting pitchers, for a total of 35.5 WAR and 87.34 wins. That excludes anything resembling a bullpen or a bench. This year, in which the bullpen has been god-awful, the bullpen's managed to contribute 2.6 WAR. I think that's pretty much a lower-bound estimate for a bullpen's contribution. Even if we take away the 1.3 WAR from Francisco Rodriguez, we still get another 1.3 WAR from the bullpen (a.k.a. awfulness), so that's 88.6 wins. Then we can add in the fact that Daniel Murphy's on the bench, which could be another 1-2 wins, getting us to approximately ninety wins.

What assumptions have I made? Well, the biggest two are that Reyes will be back with the team and that Santana will return, pitch a full season, and be effective on a Johan Santana level. Neither is even remotely guaranteed, though I'm hopeful on both counts. Offensively I think I'm underestimating Reyes (and if he stays healthy I know I am) and probably also Wright. You can argue that I'm being generous to Pagan, Bay, and Davis, on the grounds that Ike is unproven and the other two have been struggling rather badly of late. I think that I might be underestimating Thole, Tejada, and Duda. Overall I think it's a wash. In terms of pitching, the other thing that stands out is Dickey as a 4-win pitcher, but that's justified by his numbers with the Mets so far in his rejuvenated knuckeballer era. Both Niese and Gee, I think, have the potential to exceed the 1.5-win level I've put them at. And again, I'm assuming a bullpen that's awful on the level we've been accustomed to this year. Overall I think I'm being rather fair, and I've got us at the ninety-win level. It's debatable whether the Braves will win 90 games this year (they're 86-65 as we speak), and if they lose the Wild Card they probably won't. Overall I think there's no particular reason to think the Mets can't contend next year, if they sign Jose Reyes.