Polling: My Ideal Angle on the Trayvon Case

I don't think I've written anything about the hideous, disgusting, tragic Trayvon Martin case, because it's the kind of thing I try to avoid and I haven't really felt like I have anything to say. But today there's a poll out about it! That's more like it! The poll asks three substantive questions: whether the respondents think George Zimmerman is guilty of a crime, how much of a factor racial bias played in the shooting, and whether Zimmerman would've been arrested had his victim been white. The interesting thing, of course, is the racial breakdown. For all three questions, there's an enormous split between black and white respondents, in the obvious direction. 36% of whites think Zimmerman is guilty, 15% of them feeling so "definitely," while 7% think he is not and 52% are uncertain. Among African-Americans, 72% think he's guilty, 51% definite about it. Just 1% think he's not guilty of a crime, and only 26% are unclear. 30% of whites think racial bias was a major factor, with 26% saying it was a minor factor and 27% saying it wasn't a factor at all. Among blacks, the breakdown is 72%-13%-8%. 52% of whites think the race of the victim isn't making the decisive different in Zimmerman's non-arrest, to 33% who think it is. Among blacks, well, 73% say it is making a difference, and just 20% say otherwise.



As to the first question, if you really read the question literally to mean "guilty of a crime" in the formally legal sense, I think the black respondents have it wrong. From what I hear there's considerable doubt about whether the laws in Florida actually permitted what Zimmerman did. Personally I might join the plurality of answer-giving whites and say he probably is guilty of a crime, but I'm not an expert on the subject. Of course, Zimmerman is clearly, unambiguously guilty of a moral crime, and I would guess the black respondents are, subconsciously at least, interpreting the question that way, partly just as an outlet for their entirely justified outrage. That's fair enough, of course, and I certainly don't blame them, but if you want to get technical I do think it's the wrong answer to the question as asked.

On the "racial bias" question, I'm not quite sure what I think. The various "smoking guns" of Zimmerman uttering little bits of bigotry during the encounter are, as far as I've heard, mostly false. But the general sense of Zimmerman as a bit of a racist is, I think (and I should admit I haven't really looked into the question in much detail, as it's the kind of thing I find just too heartbreaking*), is a basically accurate one. So probably the black respondents are basically in the right here, though I think the aggregated white respondent could make a decent argument for not leaping to excessive conclusions under a basically innocent-until-proven-guilty philosophy.

The final question, though, is just ridiculous. The 52% of whites who don't think that a white victim would've gotten Zimmerman into a jail cell before now are just being ridiculous. Well, a slight caveat: there can be zero doubt that if Trayvon had been white and Zimmerman black, Zimmerman would be in jail, facing capital murder charges. But since most sociological literature suggests the victim's-race effect is much stronger than the offender's-race effect, I think it's pretty clear that if this had been white-on-white there'd at least have been an arrest. Basically, on this one I just don't think there's an argument against the black community's monolithic response on the "pro-black" side of this question. They're just right.

And, perhaps more importantly, that's the biggest problem with the whole affair.

(Well, not really: the biggest problem is the "-1 Human Lives" thing from the actual shooting itself. But aside from that.)


*Yeah, I know, this can pretty easily be cast as a moral failing. Whatever; I'm not perfect, and this is a pretty acceptable way to not be perfect, I'd say.