The (Maybe) Coming Female Democratic Wave

Among the two Senate classes not up for election this year, there are a total of six female Democratic Senators, out of a total of thirty Democrats overall. That's 20%, which is mediocre in absolute terms, sort of average worldwide (for an entire legislature), and better than the whole U.S. Congress right now. However, there's a real possibility that the elections this November could up that figure substantially. This is unlikely to happen if most of the toss-up races don't go the Democrats' way. Dianne Feinstein of California, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, and Maria Cantwell of Washington are all incumbents almost certain to be re-elected, and Mazie Hirono is quite likely to win Hawaii's open-seat race. That's another six, bringing us to 12 Democrats, which would not be terrible representation for a minority caucus which is what Democrats would be if those are the only women they elect this year.

But suppose the Democrats are having a really good night. Maybe the Paul Ryan thing has been a fiasco, maybe the economy's improved, whatever. Obama's winning by around the same margin as last time, if not a bit more, and he's got substantial coattails/the Republican ticket has substantially poisonous ones. Then we might also see Massachusetts electing Elizabeth Warren, Missouri re-electing Claire McCaskill, Nevada electing Shelley Berkley, North Dakota electing Heidi Heitkamp, and Wisconsin electing Tammy Baldwin. That would get us to eleven total Democratic women from this year's class, which could be as much as half the total although on a night this good the Democrats could easily be gaining seats overall which would mean electing more than twenty-two new Democrats. It would bring us to 17 total female Democratic Senators, nearly one-third of the caucus. And it might, hopefully, set an expectation that future elections would see a whole lot of Democratic women nominated for winnable Senate races. The 2014 cycle, unfortunately, looks to be a bit of a bloodbath, with tons of Democrats up for election and Obama's midterm likely to be causing problems, so it might not be the best opportunity to add. But in 2016, with hopefully some strong Democratic Presidential candidate and all of the vulnerable 2010-cycle Republicans having to face the not-as-conservative-as-they-are voters for the first time, we might be able to add a dozen new women to the caucus. It's about damn time, too.

(For what it's worth, there are three female Republican Senators not up for re-election this year, namely Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. In the good-day-for-Democrats scenario I'm envisioning, those three might be joined by Deb Fischer of Nebraska, but that's about it. So yeah, Democrats are way the hell better at electing women, and the gap might be about to grow substantially wider.)