The Leads Tiger Has Almost Held

The third round of the 2013 British Open Championship just concluded, and it concluded with a late stumble by Tiger Woods. He had played very steady golf all day, sprinkling in a birdie here to counterbalance a bogey there, while Lee Westwood surged and fell back; at one point Westwood had a three-shot lead open in about a fifteen-minute span which he then lost in the next half-hour. But after a Westwood bogey on 16, which featured a great putt holed just to salvage the bogey, the par-5 17th hole proved a bit of a turning-point. Playing into the wind, Tiger failed to get his fairway wood lay-up shot over the cross-bunkers, and had to pitch out. He and Westwood both hit to the fringe just left of the back-left pin, but with Westwood lying three to Tiger's four. Tiger missed, Westwood drained it, and all of a sudden Lee had a two-shot lead and Tiger wasn't going to be in the final group tomorrow any more.

And he wasn't going to hold a share of the lead.

That bit is the crucial bit, or, well, so we're told. Famously, in each of his fourteen major championship victories Tiger has at least been tied for the lead after three rounds. The stat was even stronger before the 2009 PGA Championship, when it was an if-and-only-if proposition: all fourteen times Tiger had held the 54-hole lead, he won, and he had never won without holding the lead. Then, of course, he held the 54-hole lead at Hazeltine National but lost the tournament to Y.E. Yang. In retrospect that was the beginning of his decline. And now he has a chance to break it. The television coverage was discussing his highest positions through three rounds of a major since his last win at the 2008 U.S. Open. Obviously Hazeltine, where he was leading outright, was his best position, but he's been in the top five a few other times. He's tied for second now, but even more important, I think, is the indicator given by a personally-invented stat of mine, Total Shots Trailing. This is a very simple concept: for every player ahead of you in the field, you add the number of shots by which you are behind them at any given point. Today, for instance, Tiger finds himself tied for second, so there's only one person ahead of him, and that person is Lee Westwood, whom he trails by 2 shots, so his TST is 2. I feel like this metric does a good job of combining the information contained in "he's X shots off the lead" with the information in "he's in a tie for Yth place," and though I haven't seen any large-scale empirical studies on the subject I imagine it does a good job predicting how plausible a player's comeback is.

To get a bit of a sense of how Tiger's done when he's been incredibly close to the lead with 18 holes to go in a major but wasn't leading himself, I examined every major he's played as a professional when his 54-hole TST was less than 10 strokes, obviously excluding the ones where he won the tournament. Actually I haven't done the examining yet, just generated the list, so I'm as curious as you are what I'll find, or probably more curious, actually, since it was my idea in the first place. Tournaments will be listed in descending order of Tiger's TST, so starting with the 9-shotters if there are any and finishing up with those where he was in the best non-leading position possible.


Honorable Mention: 2012 PGA Championship, TST = 10: This is right on the bubble and it was very recent so I'll include it. Tiger had actually held the lead through 36 holes, tied with Carl Pettersson and Vijay Singh, but struggled mightily through the third round and made the fatal mistake of falling behind the wrong guy: Rory McIlroy. Specifically he was a -2 entering the last round, with Trevor Immelman, Adam Scott, and Bo Van Pelt at -3, Pettersson at -4, and McIlroy at -7. Oops. Sure enough, Rory was dominant on Sunday with a bogey-free 66 to finish at -13. I remember, though, that for much of the round it felt competitive, Tiger was up among those just barely keeping in touch with McIlroy's lead until very late, and I at least thought that he was being forced to be more aggressive than he wanted to be because he was so far behind. Ultimately, though, he fizzled and Rory shined. Remember that, how he used to be good? It's getting tougher and tougher.


2003 Masters Tournament, TST = 9: Tiger was tied for fifth at -1. Jeff Maggert led at -5, with Mike Weir at -3 and Vijay Singh tied with David Toms at -2. Phil Mickelson and Jose Maria Olazabal were tied with Tiger, though obviously ties don't contribute to TST. Tiger had completely struggled through the first two rounds, with a 76 and then a 73, but he surged into contention with a 66 on Saturday. Unfortunately, after a birdie at the par-5 second hole he ran off a stretch beginning with a double bogey at the 3rd that saw him drop five shots to par in a six-hole stretch, and that was it. He shot a 75 to finish at +2 for the tournament. Meanwhile, Len Mattice was rocketing up the field from one shot behind Tiger starting the day with six birdies and an eagle of the par-5 13th hole, while Weir played a solid bogey-free 68 and Jeff Maggert, well... Maggert had a triple-bogey 7 at the 3rd hole and then appears to have put up a quintuple-bogey 8 at the 12th hole. Oof. Mattice then bogeyed 18 to fall into a tie with Weir, who won the playoff, the first left-hander to win a major in a very long time. That began a stretch where five of eleven Masters Tournaments have been won by a lefty. Weird. Also totally irrelevant to Tiger. The basic story here is that he was on the fringes of contention and just fell apart early.

2002 PGA Championship, TST = 8: This time Tiger was tied for fourth at -4, tied with Mark Calcavecchia. Justin Leonard led at -9, with Rich Beem in second at -6 and Fred Funk at -5. Very similar story to the following year's Masters, except this time Tiger charged. He ran off three birdies on the front nine and then, after bogeying 13 and 14, closed out his tournament with four straight birdies. Take that, Rich Beem, except that he did. Leonard fell apart hard, but Beem played a great round, matching Tiger's early birdies more or less shot-for-shot and then eagling the par-5 11th. He then held on for the win, by far the high point of his career. Can't complain about Tiger's performance here, as he shot a pretty brilliant 67; Beem just held up under the pressure. It's kind of weird that Tiger didn't win this tournament, honestly.

2010 Masters Tournament, TST = 7: This is the first of three with identical TST numbers, all during the recent drought. It was also Tiger's first major back after the scandalous revelations of the previous winter. His game didn't quite look right, but he played pretty well. He had been hanging around the lead all tournament with a 68, a 70, and a 70, but in the third round both Lee Westwood (again!) and Phil Mickelson ran away from him, Phil with a spectacular eagle-eagle-birdie run through 13-14-15. Ultimately Tiger was tied with K.J. Choi at -8, with Westwood at -12 and Phil at -11. On Sunday, though, he fell back immediately with three bogeys in his first five holes. Seven shots back, he was out of it, but then he dunked his approach shot into the par-4 7th hole for an eagle and went on a tear. Birdies at 8 and 9 followed, and he made back a bogey on 11 with a birdie at 13, and erased a bogey on 14 by eagling the 15th. He even managed to birdie the last hole, but for naught: Phil played a flawless, birdie-free 67, winning his fourth major in style. Again the charge was encouraging, but the early bogeys meant it was always too little, too late, and it does seem that this was just Phil's week once he had his electric trip through Amen Corner on Saturday.

2010 U.S. Open Championship, TST = 7: Tiger was alone in third at -1, behind Graeme McDowell at -3 and Dustin Johnson at -6. Johnson had won the last two AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Ams, I believe, and he played the first three rounds exactly like someone who just owned that course. Tiger had played sort of mediocrely through two rounds. Two-and-a-half, really, but then... then he turned it on. His putter got hot and he fired off a third-round 66, vaulting himself into contention. Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson were also hanging around, at even-par and +1 respectively. Of course, everyone thought Dustin would just run away with it and it would be boring. Wrong. He crashed and burned as spectacularly as ever anyone has crashed and burned, flubbing chip shots on the 2nd hole, hitting into the thick rough under trees on the 3rd hole, failing to make a single birdie all day (even after hitting the 18th green in two shots when it no longer mattered, heh), and generally just shooting a miserable 82. If Tiger had managed to shoot an even-par round, he would've won the tournament. This he did not do, with three pretty sloppy bogeys in the first six holes. In the end he made six bogeys and two birdies, and we were left with the conclusion that he wasn't really playing very well that week, but just had nine holes of off-the-charts hot putting. Mickelson and Els ended up having the better chances, but they fell short and Graeme McDowell managed to just barely hang on for the win. Weird tournament.

2012 British Open Championship, TST = 7: Three very nice rounds left Tiger at -6, but Adam Scott was just running away from everyone at -11, with McDowell and Brandt Snedeker at -7. Oh, and Ernie Els hanging around at -5. This is similar to the '10 U.S. Open, in that if Tiger had just played a remotely competent round the people ahead of him would've fallen back to him. Instead he had a disastrous encounter with a greenside bunker on the 6th hole, leading to a triple bogey, and then basically hovered around -3 for the rest of the round. Meanwhile Els shot the round Tiger needed, putting up four birdies on the last nine holes. It shouldn't have been enough, but then Adam Scott, who had previously looked unflappable, collapsed with four straight closing bogeys, completing Ernie's comeback tour for him. A one-under round would've matched Ernie for Tiger. He shot +3. It was pretty devastating, honestly.

2006 Masters Tournament, TST = 4: A bit of a gap here. Tiger was at -2, in a big ol' cluster that also included Stephen Ames, Tim Clark, Darren Clarke, Rocco Mediate, and Vijay Singh. Chad Campbell and Fred Couples were 3-under, and Phil Mickelson led at -4. Everyone had just been kind of hanging around, no real fireworks or anything. That continued for Tiger, as he shot an eminently boring final-round 70 to finish at -4, in another big tie. Phil, on the other hand, shot a lovely 69 including a meaningless bogey at the last, his only of the day, to win his third major. A not-uncommon pattern here, as Tiger just couldn't get it going early and therefore his late charge, four birdies and one bogey in the last six holes, went for naught. I sort of recall some Masters at which Tiger just hadn't been able to make a goddamned putt all week, and then rolled in a nice one on the 72nd hole for a meaningless birdie which he gave a dismissive wave. Might've been this week; he did birdie 18.

2003 British Open Championship, TST = 3: Tiger was +1, getting himself back into play with a nice 69. Thomas Bjorn was one under par, leading, with Davis Love III at even par. Tied with Tiger were Sergio Garcia, Kenny Perry, Vijay Singh, and some guy named Ben Curtis, playing his first-ever major. I don't have much memory of this tournament and the Wikipedia summary isn't that informative, but apparently Tiger was in contention until a couple of late bogeys. He finished right where he started, at +1. Curtis, meanwhile, played a great 69 out in front of the leaders that saw him take and then relinquish the lead. Luckily for him, however, Bjorn choked, finishing with a bogey, a double-bogey, a bogey, and a par to squander a three-shot lead with 4 to play. Congratulations Mr. Curtis. Not much to say about Tiger's performance in this tournament, since I don't remember it at all.

1999 U.S. Open Championship, TST = 3: This really feels like one of the ones that got away, and not just for Tiger. Entering the last day at Pinehurst, Payne Stewart led at -1, with Phil Mickelson at even par and Tiger Woods tied with Tim Herron at +1. Tiger was never quite in the lead for most of the round, lurking a few shots back, but then made two late birdies to reach even par, at which point he must've been no more than one back. Then he three-putted the 17th green and finished at +1, one shot behind Phil and one shot out of the potential playoff that Payne Stewart would've created with a missed par putt on 18. Of course, back then Tiger Woods was not yet Tiger Woods, and this would have been just his second major and first U.S. Open. Still, it was a rare time when he choked in the clutch a little bit.

2007 U.S. Open Championship, TST = 2: Another one that hurt. Tiger was in solo second at +4 on the tough, tough Oakmont Country Club track. Angel Cabrera, the second-round leader who comes back into the picture very soon, had shot a 76 to fall back to +6. Aaron Baddeley, however, was playing very solid golf and held the lead at +2. That didn't last long. He triple-bogeyed the first hole, ended up shooting an 80 (the third straight year a major contender had failed to break 80 in the last round of the Open) and very briefly putting Tiger in the outright lead. He played a decent round, too, with a 72 that saw him post +6. Jim Furyk managed to play par golf for the day and match him at +6. Unfortunately for our hero, Angel Cabrera shot an insane 69 to storm into the lead. He and Tiger were battling all day long, but in the end Tiger just couldn't make any birdies to catch Cabrera up and Cabrera never faltered.

2007 Masters Tournament, TST = 1: This was awful. The way this tournament ended was no fun, though it was certainly dramatic. The course was playing tough, and Saturday in particular, as Tiger used an even-par 72 to rocket up the field. He was tied for second at +3, with Justin Rose, trailing Stuart Appleby. Unfortunately he stayed stuck in neutral with another 72, while Retief Goosen, Rory Sabbatini, and (crucially) Zach Johnson charged with 69. Tiger finished tied for second with Goosen and Sabbatini; Johnson won it at +1. Tiger had been +2 through much of the round, with one birdie at the par-5 second against a couple of bogeys, when he hit a magnificent shot into the par-5 13th, riding the slope to three feet for eagle. With another par-5 left to play, things looked hopeful even though Johnson was piling up birdies ahead of him. Unfortunately his drive on the 15th did not put him in perfect position, and his ambitious approach shot splashed in the lake. He was able to save par, but not to continue his charge.

BONUS:

2009 PGA Championship, TST = 0: This is the only 54-hole lead Tiger's ever blown, as I've already mentioned. He had led after the first round, with a -5 67. A 2-under 70 kept him in front after 36 holes. He added another shot with a 71 on Saturday and looked on his way to a wire-to-wire victory to announce his comeback from the knee injury that he had played and won the 2008 U.S. Open on and then had surgically repaired. But in the third round, little-known Y.E. Yang put up a 67 to charge into second place and the final pairing with Tiger. Where he did the impossible. Tiger's putting was mediocre and he had fallen into a tie with Yang through 13 holes. Then Yang hit his drive on the short par-4 14th to just short of the green and chipped in for eagle, while Tiger could only manage birdie, and Yang was in control the whole rest of the way. It was, quite frankly, stunning.



So, are there any conclusions to be drawn from this examination? Well, I notice a few patterns. Tiger has never put on an actual charge any time when he was starting from just behind the lead. When he's been way back, he usually either falls apart immediately or puts on a strong charge, or sometimes both, but it's too little, too late if he ever does get it going. The times when he could've actually gotten something out of putting together a few birdies, however, he hasn't managed to. He's played frontrunner golf, making pars and avoiding mistakes and hoping people would come back to him. And, actually, they've done that pretty often. Three of the five times Tiger's entered the last day with a positive TST less than 5, i.e. when he's been right there but not actually leading, someone who wasn't ahead of him ended up winning. That was also the case in last year's British Open, and though it wasn't quite true in the 2010 U.S. Open that was another example where just playing par golf would've won him the championship. The person you figure Tiger needs to catch in these spots, Dustin Johnson or Aaron Baddeley or Adam Scott or Stuart Appleby or Thomas Bjorn, have done a good job of falling apart and opening the door for him. But there's been someone else there, someone lurking a little bit out of the spotlight, who's made the charge or who, in McDowell's case, held on when no one else could.

So what advice would I give Tiger, if I could, based on this historical record? In a sense I'd say, don't worry so much about Lee Westwood. This is a hard course, he's never won a major, he's played an up-and-down game so far this week. He'll probably make some mistakes and fall back to you a little bit. But there's Adam Scott, right there in your group. And there's Hunter Mahan, coming out of nowhere to kick you out of the final tee time. There are a lot of people hanging around this lead, and someone's going to get hot. It had better be you. Don't just play like a front-runner. You're not trailing these guys but you don't have an advantage over them either: you need to beat them, and they have someone they're chasing. They won't be looking to play front-runner golf, they'll be looking to charge. A few of the early holes are gettable. Get them. Get yourself in position to make everyone else come at you, with 15 or 12 holes to play if not with 18, and then do what you do best. But don't let yourself just play such consistent, steady golf that you start running out of holes and need to take on shots that aren't really prudent. That might sound somewhat contradictory. After all, sometimes he's just hung around par on Sunday while other people have charged past him or while the leaders have held steady, and other times the rest of the field has fallen back but he's already squandered his good position. But in a way that's the point. A hot start solves all his problems, so he needs to be very aggressive when he can be in order to avoid having to get aggressive when he shouldn't be and put himself behind the eight-ball.

Oh, and watch out for Adam Scott's caddy. That guy doesn't really like you.