The Mets are playing well right now. They're something like 7-2 over their current homestand, having won each of the three series in it and going for a sweep of the Marlins tomorrow behind suddenly en fuego Jacob deGrom. This is always really easy to do when things are going well over a short time scale, but I can't help myself from thinking that there's a really good argument to be made for keeping this current team together, more or less, for next year.
Here's what that roster could look like, more or less, using only people under team control already:
Starting Pitchers (choose five):
Matt Harvey, RHP
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Jon Niese, LHP
Dillon Gee, RHP
Noah Syndergaard, RHP
Jacob deGrom, RHP
Relief Pitchers (choose seven):
Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Jeurys Familia, RHP
Bobby Parnell, RHP
Vic Black, RHP
Josh Edgin, LHP
Carlos Torres, RHP
Rafael Montero, RHP?
Jack Leathersich, LHP?
Catchers:
Travis d'Arnaud (R)
Anthony Recker (R)/Juan Centeno (L)
Infielders:
Lucas Duda, 1B (L)
Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
Ruben Tejada, SS (R)
David Wright, 3B (R)
Eric Campbell, UT (R)
Wilfredo Tovar, MI (R)?
Wilmer Flores, UT (R)?
Outfielders:
Juan Lagares, CF (R)
Curtis Granderson, LF? (L)
Cesar Puello, RF (R)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF (L)
Eric Young, Jr., LF (S)
The particular move I've made is in the outfield. In a lot of ways it's the resurgence of Kirk Nieuwenhuis that's made me feel more optimistic about this team as it could currently be constructed. If Cesar Puello can get it going at AAA, where he seems to have lost momentum due to a variety of minor injuries, he could emerge as a legitimate potential platoon partner for Nieuwenhuis. That would let the team, maybe, stick that platoon in right field on an everyday basis (Puello is said to have a great arm and Kirk, as he showed the other day, ain't bad in that regard) and hide Granderson's weak arm in left. As for the rest of the offense, d'Arnaud is looking more and more every day like someone who's actually going to become the offensive force he's supposed to be. The same is true of Duda. Murphy is just consistently productive. Lagares, well, he's an elite defensive CF, and has looked like a pretty good hitter as well at times this year, particularly when not coming off an injury. Wright hasn't been himself for much of the year, but there's no real reason to think he's broken in any lasting way (in fact he's been heating up of late). Campbell looks like he's a great bench guy, and EYJ works nicely as a late-game pinch runner type. That only leaves Ruben Tejada, and I'll return to him in a moment.
Then we turn to the pitching. The pitching that makes you think 1969, or maybe 1986. Good young pitching, up and down the staff. I'm even basically just sort of assuming that Bartolo Colon, who's been perfectly serviceable and a fun guy to have on the team, won't still be here, because there are just too many people who will deserve rotation slots over him. We have Zack Wheeler, who looks like he's gradually developing into the dominant pitcher he's supposed to be. There's Jon Niese and Dillon Gee, the "veterans" of the staff at 28 and 29 next year, respectively, neither of whom have the overpowering stuff of the other guys on this list but who damn well know how to pitch damn well. There's deGrom, who's pulled a little mini-Matt Harvey and gotten better at the Major League level. Oh, and then there's actual Matt Harvey, or, as FanGraphs wistfully dubbed him over the offseason, Pitcher McPitcherson. In other words you take a rotation currently bursting with young talent and you add a potential Cy Young candidate back into the mix. Oh, and then there's Noah Syndergaard, he of the career 9.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minor leagues. Yes, he's struggled a bit in Vegas, but there's good reason to think nothing's meaningfully wrong. He could be the second-best pitcher on the team, next to Harvey. And the great thing is, they wouldn't even need him to play any kind of savior.
Oh, and then there's the bullpen. Sorry Bobby Parnell, you turned yourself into an effective closer only to get hit by the TJ bug and get supplanted by Jenrry Mejia. Still, having Mejia, with the 94-mph wicked cutter, Familia, with the 97-mph hard sinker, and Parnell, with the 99-to-100-mph flat-out gas at the back end of a bullpen is... not bad. Toss in Vic Black and Josh Edgin as a couple more hard throwers, Carlos Torres who's been ridiculously effective though overworked, maybe Jack Leathersich who seems to have righted his command problems in the minors, maybe Rafael Montero (who is, after all, ridiculously blocked in the rotation)... the point is, the bullpen looks like it could be a real, real strength. The Mets are developing what every other team has: a bullpen full of young fireballers.
What's the weakness on this team? Ruben Tejada? Really? Is that the only weakness? The guy who's been hitting .288/.394/.364, good for a 121 wRC+, over his past 40 games while playing good defense? Sure that's with a .356 BAbip, but he hits a ton of line drives and in his good years had BAbips of around .330. Tejada kind of looks like a league average player right now. And he also kind of looks like the only real weak spot on that 2015 path-of-least-resistance Mets team. That's... not a bad sign, is it? I kind of think this team could compete, both for the division and for a potential Wild Card spot.
And I'm really tempted not to give any of the pitching away, because, you know, you can never have too many pitchers. They get hurt. The team has been lucky not to lose any of its starters to Tommy John surgery this year (except, of course, Matt Harvey), but they lost their closer and it's not like you can just assume that the five guys you pick to be your starters will be there all year. I like Jeremy Hefner just fine, but I'd rather not get to the point where enough of the guys I mentioned above are gone that he has to fill in in the rotation. So trading, say, Zack Wheeler, and one of the other guys, plus a bunch of position prospects for Troy Tulowitzki just doesn't really seem that appealing to me. Yes, Tulo would give the offense a huge upgrade. But being damn sure we won't have to give any starts to anyone who isn't a great pitcher is pretty important. And, to be honest, I have a bit of a feeling that trading some of these good young pitchers to Colorado is just doing them a disservice. That's not really something GMs are supposed to be thinking about, but as an actual human being it's something I do think about.
Now, there is one thing I think Sandy Alderson could do, if he wanted to give this team a jolt of energy next year, and that's sign Hanley Ramirez. You would get most of the benefits of a Troy Tulowitzki while maybe only paying marginally more actual money and, most importantly, not giving up any of your current players. Free agency! It has a certain logic to it, doesn't it? And Hanley is that rare free agent who hits the market while he's still good and reasonably young. The problem, of course, is that Hanley currently plays for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who appear to own a printing press, and that other team that definitely owns a printing press is going to have a wee bit of a hole at shortstop next year. So the Mets would have to win a bidding war with the two teams you don't want to get in a bidding war with, most likely. And there's no great reason for Hanley not to want to stay in L.A.: they've got one of the better teams in baseball, and have got to be considered a perennial favorite to contend for the World Series. (For once that motive tells some marquee free agent not to sign with the Yankees, heh.) They've got the payroll flexibility for it, though, and I think Hanley would make it justified. Picture this lineup:
Granderson
Murphy
Wright
Ramirez
Duda
d'Arnaud
Kirk/Lagares
Lagares/Puello
That's an incredible lineup, right? You've got real power bats at the #1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 spots, a great pure hitter batting second, and dynamic players even at the bottom of the order. You've got great, potentially elite outfield defense. And you've got Harvey/Wheeler/Syndergaard/Niese/Gee/deGrom/Montero/Mejia/Familia/Parnell/Black/Edgin/etc. to do your pitching.
That's a playoff team, right? And, like, a playoff contending team for a long, long time?
That's what I think the team should do if Alderson and the Wilpons are willing to get aggressive and to spend big money. With the amount of long-term baggage they don't have, even if the Hanley contract was a big of an overpay on the back end like all free agent deals these days there's no reason it should be crippling to a New York team. Even if they aren't gonna do that, though, or if they balk at paying the king's ransom in prospects that Tulo would doubtless command, it looks an awful lot like the Mets could be a real playoff contender next year.
Or they could trade, say, deGrom and Montero and Tejada or something to Toronto to get Jose Reyes back. That would also work for me.
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