Sunday, November 14, 2010

It is *not* that hard, guys...

I just spent a minute or two playing with the NYT's budget deficit fixer tool. What I found was basically this: using the choices they offer, I couldn't eliminate the deficit in 2030 without doing one of the following three things, namely cut a whole bunch of federal domestic discretionary spending I don't want to cut, cap Medicare growth at GDP growth + 1%, or impose a national 5% sales/VAT tax. I don't like any of those options. I cut a lot of military spending, raised a lot of tax rates, etc., but came up short without one of those three. I think this is a distinctly false choice, though. It's simply not that hard. Deficit = revenues - outlays. Two ways to reduce the deficit: increase revenues, or reduce outlays. How do we increase revenues? Well, the people at NYT want you to think that a substantive national sales tax is the answer. But why? I just don't get why taxing consumption, which is after all the very thing which stimulates the economy, is thought to be a good idea. I mean, I suppose you could theoretically use a consumption tax sort of the way they use monetary policy, to put the breaks on an unsustainable boom, but sales taxes are just so regressive. I can't see any justification for them except to burden the poor. So, here's why it's not that hard: raise taxes on the rich. Substantially. There, wasn't that easy? There is literally no chance that we couldn't raise rates on the very rich enough to give us all the money we need, it's impossible. Would it impede growth? Eh, skeptical; high-end tax rates were pretty high during some pretty strong times in the American economy, and in any event cutting government spending impedes growth and does damage in other ways, too.

Of course, the other alternative lies on the spending side: just adopt a system of properly national health care, like they do in Spain; the benefits you get from being able to coordinate things are enormous, and after all, single-payer would've always been the way to reduce government health-care costs the most.

And now to return to my mind-numbing quantities of Japanese studying. Oh joy.

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