World Series Win Probability Added Leaderboards, Day 2

It's Day 2 of the post-season! Or, really, it's day 3, but that means I have access to leaderboards from day 2. So here's the first update of the leaderboards I debuted yesterday, of the best players, worst players, and biggest plays from this year's playoffs, measured by WSWPA.



Top 10 players by WSWPA:

Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals, +7.38%
Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics, +4.29%
Christian Colon, Kansas City Royals, +3.18%
Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics, +2.81%
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals, +2.69%
Brandon Finnegan, Kansas City Royals, +2.64%
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, +2.50%
Alberto Callaspo, Oakland Athletics, +2.10%
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants, +1.99%
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giant, +1.76%

Three Giants crack the top 10, and obviously no Pirates. Man that was a bad game for the Pirates. Madison Bumgarner, obviously, threw a complete-game four-hit shutout in a double-elimination game. That's pretty good. Brandon Belt reached base four times, not making an out until the top of the 9th when the leverage had cratered down to nil, so he just kept racking up little bits of good. Brandon Crawford, on the other hand, was just 1-4 with two strikeouts and a grounded-into-double-play (and he also made an error in the field, though it was also in the zero-leverage part of the game and I don't even know if it's nominally included). Except he also hit the 4th-inning grand slam that made the game feel out of reach the moment the Giants took the lead. Sort of like the night Sal Perez had, except the bad stuff was a lot lower leverage.

Bottom 10 players by WSWPA:

Jason Hammel, Oakland Athletics, -5.46%
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals, -4.26%
Dan Otero, Oakland Athletics, -3.78%
Edinson Volquez, Pittsburgh Pirates, -3.11%
Jason Frasor, Kansas City Royals, -3.06%
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics, -2.11%
Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals, -1.65%
Jon Lester, Oakland Athletics, -1.61%
Jayson Nix, Kansas City Royals, -1.58%
Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics, -1.54%

Only one guy cracks this list, and that's Edinson Volquez. Obviously. He pitched his team to a 5-0 deficit in five innings. The people at FanGraphs thought he maybe shouldn't have been allowed to start the fourth inning at all. Would've been nice. (Incidentally, we'd have to add another seven spots to this leaderboard before we found another National League player. A whole lot of Pirates hitters had very modestly negative WPAs, but they never really batted in any high-leverage spots so no one screwed up like the first eleven innings of Salvador Perez.)

Top 5 plays by WSWPA:

AL WC Game, bottom of the 12th, 2 outs, runner on 2nd, OAK 8, KCR 8: Salvador Perez singles to left field off of Jason Hammel, Christian Colon scores. +4.975% WSWPA for Kansas City.
AL WC Game, top of the 6th, 0 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd, KCR 3, OAK 2: Brandon Moss homers to center field off of Yordano Ventura, Sam Fuld scores, Josh Donaldson scores. +3.975% WSWPA for Oakland.
AL WC Game, bottom of the 12th, 1 out, bases empty, OAK 8, KCR 7: Eric Hosmer triples to left field off of Dan Otero. +3.738% WSWPA for Kansas City.
AL WC Game, bottom of the 12th, 1 out, runner on 3rd, OAK 8, KCR 7: Christian Colon singles to third base off of Dan Otero, Eric Hosmer scores. +3.463% WSWPA for Kansas City.
AL WC Game, top of the 1st, 2 outs, runner on 1st, OAK 0, KCR 0: Brandon Moss homers to left field off of James Shields, Coco Crisp scores. +2.488% WSWPA for Oakland.

As promised, this list is unchanged. Crawford's slam was worth +2.475% WSWPA for the Giants, fractions behind Moss's first homer. The next-most-exciting play on the day was the previous one, Belt's walk to load the bases, which added 9.3% gmWPA and therefore 1.163% WSWPA. That's right, there was only one time all game when the win expectancy for that game shifted by more than 10% in one play. God what an awful game. On to the Division Series!