World Series Win Probability Added Leaderboards, Day 3*

Yesterday (okay, technically it was two calendar days ago, on the East Coast at least) there were two baseball games played. The Orioles gave the Tigers as 12-3 drubbing, and the Royals beat the Angels 3-2. Unfortunately, Baseball-Reference has only posted a box score for the first one. This is a problem because B-R gives me player WPA numbers to one further decimal than FanGraphs does. So the player leaderboards below don't include anyone from that second game, though the list of top plays would conceptually if there were any that made the cut and I'll note if anyone from the Royals/Angels game is in the top 10, even though I won't list them.

Top 10 players by WSWPA:

Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals, +7.38%
Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics, +4.29%
Christian Colon, Kansas City Royals, +3.18%
Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics, +2.81%
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals, +2.69%
Brandon Finnegan, Kansas City Royals, +2.64%
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, +2.50%
Alberto Callaspo, Oakland Athletics, +2.10%
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants, +1.99%
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giant, +1.76%

This is identical to yesterday's top 10. Nelson Cruz came closest to breaking in, with a 2-for-4 performance that included a home run, two runs scored, and three driven in. He had +1.68% WSWPA, narrowly missing out. Greg Holland's one-run save was worth about 20% gmWPA, however, which will be just barely enough to unseat Crawford's grand slam performance when I have a more detailed number on him. (By then Crawford may have either risen or fallen based on his performance in today's NLDS game, which I could look up now but won't. It'll just be a surprise!)

Bottom 10 players by WSWPA:

Jason Hammel, Oakland Athletics, -5.46%
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals, -4.26%
Dan Otero, Oakland Athletics, -3.78%
Edinson Volquez, Pittsburgh Pirates, -3.11%
Jason Frasor, Kansas City Royals, -3.06%
Torii Hunter, Detroit Tigers, -2.40%
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics, -2.11%
Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals, -1.65%
Jon Lester, Oakland Athletics, -1.61%
Jayson Nix, Kansas City Royals, -1.58%

The newbie is Torii Hunter, displacing Jed Lowrie. Hunter went 0-4 in Game 1 of the ALDS, and the last two outs were particularly damaging. In the top of the 5th, he grounded out with two outs and the bases loaded, with his team down a run. Then, in the top of the 8th, down two runs, he batted with one on and no outs, and on a hit-and-run play he lined out to shortstop for an easy double play. On basically the next pitch Miguel Cabrera homered. Yeah. Of course all of that would go on to seem moot when the Orioles opened the floodgates on Detroit, but had Hunter even managed to just strike out, Miggy's shot might've tied the game and made things different in the bottom of the inning. Both of those hurt, big-time.

Once I get the Angels/Orioles data, I can say with certainty that Fernando Salas, who coughed up the winning home run to Mike Moustakas and had about -30% gmWPA, will join this list, and a bunch of others look like they'll at least be ahead of where Nix is now: Howie Kendrick, Josh Hamilton, and Salvador Perez all had rough nights. Not exactly sure how all of that is gonna shake out, and again, the next update will probably include today's four games as well.

Top 5 plays by WSWPA:

AL WC Game, bottom of the 12th, 2 outs, runner on 2nd, OAK 8, KCR 8: Salvador Perez singles to left field off of Jason Hammel, Christian Colon scores. +4.975% WSWPA for Kansas City.
AL WC Game, top of the 6th, 0 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd, KCR 3, OAK 2: Brandon Moss homers to center field off of Yordano Ventura, Sam Fuld scores, Josh Donaldson scores. +3.975% WSWPA for Oakland.
AL WC Game, bottom of the 12th, 1 out, bases empty, OAK 8, KCR 7: Eric Hosmer triples to left field off of Dan Otero. +3.738% WSWPA for Kansas City.
AL WC Game, bottom of the 12th, 1 out, runner on 3rd, OAK 8, KCR 7: Christian Colon singles to third base off of Dan Otero, Eric Hosmer scores. +3.463% WSWPA for Kansas City.

ALDS Game 1, top of the 11th, 0 outs, bases empty, KCR 2, LAA 2: Mike Moustakas homers to right field. +3.178% WSWPA for Kansas City.

Moustakas' game-winning home run in the 11th inning kicks Brandon Moss's first home run off the list. Nothing from the Orioles/Tigers game came particularly close to meriting inclusion. Since we're not gonna see any higher-leverage games for a while (both Division Series that have seen two games have seen the same result in each of them, giving a low- rather than high-leverage Game 3), this list might stay pretty static. In fact, if we don't see any Game 5's then there might not be a ton of action here until we get to the LCS round.

Tomorrow's update could potentially see five whole games added, if B-R is assiduous about putting today's games up. Here's a spoiler: Eric Hosmer is not going to lose his spot on top of the leaderboard.