The Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong, Part N

Jose Reyes has often seemed like one of the best lead-off hitters in the game. For several years he blew away the rest of the league in terms of stolen bases, and on top of that he routinely racked up double-digit triples and a similar number of home runs. And he played shortstop. A great, great player, right? Well, there was just one problem: his on-base percentage. For his career it's just .335, which is not very high when you come right down to it. Even in his best years, 2006-08, he only put up a .355 OBP. And people say that OBP is really the most important thing for a leadoff hitter: you're supposed to get on base and let the big bats behind you drive you in. Steals are nice, but they're ultimately just the frills; on-base percentage is really what makes a great leadoff hitter. And .355, the thinking is, just isn't that good an OBP for a supposedly-great leadoff hitter.

But is that last bit even remotely correct? Well, consider the following: suppose that the Mets had had nothing but the '06-'08 Reyes leading off for them last year, with a .355 OBP. Among the 30 Major League teams, that would have ranked them 5th in terms of the OBP of their leadoff position, and just fractionally behind the other four. A Derek Jeter/Brett Gardner combo for the Yankees posted .358, with Gardner significantly boosting Jeter's performance. Ichiro Suzuki had .360 for the Mariners, aided by a .315 average. Rickie Weeks led the Brewers to .361. Finally, an amalgam of Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Kelly Johnson in Phoeniz put up .368, which I think might have a little something to do with the ballpark they play in. That's it.

So why, again, do we think that .355 OBP for a guy with genuine power and the ability to steal 50 bases routinely is not good enough? Oh, Reyes, you're only in the top-5 in the league among leadoff hitters in this one thing, while being far and away the best at this other thing that's also kind of important. That's just not good enough. Like, seriously? That's ridiculous. Now, if Reyes can't recover his peak form and toodles along as his career .335-type guy, well, that would make him 10th in the league, still distinctly top half but not really much better than average. And that would be unfortunate. Likewise, it would be amazing if he could improve on it; if Reyes plays every day with a .380 OBP, I can tell you right now he would deserve to be league MVP.

The point is, I think, that people compare him to the .401 OBP career from Rickey Henderson. But here's the thing: there's a reason Rickey is the best lead-off hitter of all time by a large margin. He had something, some magic. Reyes is not as good a hitter as Rickey Henderson was. It's a shame. If he were, I think he might be looking at making a run for Rickey's steals record. But he's not. That doesn't mean, however, that he can't be the best lead-off hitter in the game today with his .355 on-base percentage. He absolutely can.