My Theory of Tiger

Tiger Woods, as of this very moment, sucks. It's a shame, but there's really no debating it. He's shot his first round over par at Bay Hill since 1999 this week, and then also his second. He's had his worst finish ever at Torrey Pines, by far. He hasn't won anything in well over a year. He's hitting shots you've just never seen from him. He's not the same Tiger Woods. What's different? I think I know the answer: fear.

Tiger says that he's hitting the ball great on the range, and just can't bring it to the course. Various announcers confirm that he looks really good on the practice tee. To me, this is very similar to the thing I and people I know sometimes get of taking really good practice swings and then messing up on the real shot, and I have the same basic belief about it. It's got to be psychological. We know Tiger can make a dozen perfect iron shots in a row, physically speaking, because he does it, over and over again, on the range. So it must be the case that something about the difference in the psychological setting between the range and tournament competition is messing him up. And that's got to be psychological. I also think that the main mental factor that destroys one's ability to hit good golf shots is fear. On the range there is nothing to fear. But in competition, fear ought to be everywhere. Except I think Tiger's never really felt fear before. He's always known, not just believed but known, that he was the best golfer of all time and that he was just going to go out there and win. But now his personal life has all gone to hell, and he's lost a good measure of his public support, and he knows now that whenever he does badly people will interpret it as a sign that his career is finished. So he's scared. And you can't hit good golf shots while in the grip of fear.

This theory has two main consequences, one a prediction and the other advice. The prediction is that, if he wins again relatively soon, he'll be back, more or less at full strength, and will go back to his dominating, winning ways. The advice is that he really needs to notice that it's fear he's dealing with, at least if I'm right. The trick with fear is to notice that you're scared, and then tell yourself not to be (as long as it's a fear that you shouldn't just actually go along with, like the fear of jumping off of cliffs with no bungee cord). If you have fear but you don't know you do, there's no way you can conquer it.

Alternatively, he could just head over to Augusta where he knows every inch of the course and knows exactly how well it suits his game, and start feeling pure confidence just based on that. Either way, really.