Monday, April 18, 2011

BREAKING: Jose Reyes Still not a low-OBP Leadoff Hitter

Through sixteen games this year (small sample size, I admit, but bear with me), Jose Reyes has a .351 on-base percentage; as a result, the Mets have a .351 OBP out of their first spot in the batting order. That's eighth in the Major Leagues, as well as fifth in the National League. That's 68th percentile in the NL, in case you were counting, which to me says distinctly above-average, nearly top quarter of the league. Now, it strikes me that OBP is of particular importance to a leadoff hitter specifically while they are leading off the game, and in his capacity as the actual first batter of the game Jose Reyes has a nifty .500 OBP so far this year. That's tied for third in the majors, behind only the .600 mark put up by Rickie Weeks of the Brewers and the .533 from Chris Getz of the Royals (note that those are team numbers, actually; those are the teams' primary leadoff hitters). Let's say we think that overall OBP and actual leading-off OBP are of approximately equal value for a leadoff hitter, and add the two together. Then Jose has a .851 mark, fourth in the majors behind the Pirates with Jose Tabata (.931), the Brewers with Weeks (.953), and the Cubs with Starlin Castro (1.016), and note that Castro, at least, appears to be on a distinctly BAbip-fueled run, sporting a .435 mark in that department compared to Reyes' much more reasonable .338. The lesson? Jose Reyes is well above average as a leadoff hitter, specifically if we only care about on-base percentage. At least, he is so far this year, and he was last year, and there's no reason to think he won't keep being this year because .351 is a little below where his OBP has been in his best years. Then you add in the world-class speed (6 for 6 so far!) and the above-average power, both for a leadoff hitter and for a shortstop (tied for second in the NL for extra-base hits!), and the glove, and you have a truly great player. The low-OBP line against him is just a fraud.

Side note: on their careers, the overall OBP numbers from Jose Reyes and Rickey Henderson, the inevitable comparison for any leadoff hitter, are .335 and .401, a difference of 66 points in Rickey's favor. As the fist batter of the game, however, Jose's OBP rises to .342 and Rickey's actually declines to just .380, narrowing the gap to just 38 points. Since it does seem to me like getting on base is something that matters particularly in that first plate appearance, or when leading off an inning generally (in which case it's .336 against .391, still narrower but more narrowly), maybe the gap between Jose and the greatest leadoff hitter of all time in this metric isn't as substantial as it might seem. Interesting that, while both raised their slugging-percentage performance when leading off the game or an inning (Reyes, .447 or .445 against .434 career; Henderson, .436 or .440 against .419 career), Reyes also upped his game in terms of getting on base for the beginning of the game while Rickey seemed to be a little less patient when he was the first man up in an inning.

UPDATE: On the day today, Starlin Castro went 1-4 getting on base, and Rickie Weeks is 1-6 as the Brewers play the Phillies in extra innings. Weeks at least has fallen back behind Reyes on the year.

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