Divide the Question

There are two separate questions regarding Jose Reyes' future with the Mets, and I think people often conflate them. Here's how I see the basic issue: the Mets have the following players under team control next year: Johan Santana, Jason Bay, David Wright, R.A. Dickey, and D.J. Carrasco. Add in Francisco Rodriguez' $3.5 million buyout if his option doesn't vest, and that's a baseline salary of $64 million. Obviously, they need twenty more players. Question #1 is what overall level of salary they're going to want to wind up around. Will it be the same $150 million they're at now? A wee bit less than that? Or barely higher than the $64 million they're already on the hook for? I should note that I am of the opinion that if they end up under $100 million next year, or even really particularly close to $100 million, it's a case of ownership malpractice by the Wilpons, and morally they ought to sell the team rather than gut it to accommodate their own entirely deserved money problems.

Question #2 is, if the Mets are going to have non-negligible money to invest in the team beyond that $64 million in current contracts, what's their first priority? Well, let's ask what the team would look like if they didn't bring in anyone new to add to that team. I didn't include players currently in the arbitration or pre-arbitration stages, because the website I got this info from didn't include them. So the team would be Thole/Davis/Murphy/Tejada/Wright/Bay/Pagan/Duda, Santana/Pelfrey/Niese/Dickey/Mejia, and a bunch of bench players or relief pitchers. If you want to add to that, what would you do? Depending on exactly how those five prospective starting pitchers work out, you'd consider trying to get a new and better starter. Maybe you'd want to bring in an elite closer, if one's on the market. Maybe you'd want something in the outfield.

Or maybe you'd want an All-Star shortstop, beloved by your fanbase, who fits perfectly into your home stadium's wacky dimensions, and provides elite speed, well above-average power for both a shortstop and a leadoff hitter, and, in reality, plus-level on-base skills for a leadoff hitter. Who has seriously Gold Glove or MVP potential, one of these years. A guy who's given your team a .566 winning percentage in games when he's gotten on base, compared to just a .410 winning percentage since he came up in games that don't feature him standing on first base, smiling. A guy who you know wouldn't mess up the team chemistry if you signed him, 'cause he's already the spark in this team's engine, and whom, therefore, the team's chemistry would miss dearly if he left. And who, because of his loyalty to your team, might be willing to take a little bit of a discount to sign with you instead of someone else. Maybe you'd want that guy.

Seriously, the point is, of course if the Mets are going to become a second division team next year, with a payroll befitting the Royals rather than a team located in the biggest metropolitan area in the nation, then Jose Reyes will not be on that team. And if that's the way the Mets want to go with that team, honestly, it'll be good for Reyes' career to get off that team; maybe he can to go Boston and lead them off to a World Series. But if the Mets don't become that team, unable to spend anything resembling the amount of money it's been accustomed to shelling out for the last few decades; if, instead, the Mets decide to continue being a big-market team with a big-market payroll and ambitions of doing good if not great things, then it strikes me that there's a very good case to make the first $12-15 million they reinvest above their current contracts the money it will take to get Jose Reyes to stay in Queens. It's one question whether the Wilpons are going to suck the team dry next year. It's another question whether Sandy Alderson rationally ought to want Jose Reyes back, if he's given the money to make that a possibility. Let's talk about them separately, and honestly, please.

SIDE NOTE: It occurs to me that, if Santana recovers well from this injury, Santana-Dickey-Mejia-Niese-Pelfrey is a nasty starting rotation. If the Mets can have that rotation next year, some sort of decent bullpen, and Reyes still on the team anchoring the offense, it could be a really fun 2012.