Volatility At The Top

Seven players, we are told, have a chance to be World Number One after this week's Masters if they win. But on further investigation, I discover that it's not just that: there would be very little possibility for those ahead of any of these seven players to defend their positions with high finishes. The last-ranked player in our group of potential #1's is, ironically, Tiger Woods (though he's accustomed to being the lowest-ranked player who could be #1 next week, usually because he's the only one!). If Tiger wins the Masters, I project that with the 100 ranking points from the win he'd get to 7.953 average points. If Martin Kaymer, current World #1, misses the cut at the Masters, he'll be at just 7.798 average points. To stay ahead of a victorious Tiger, Kaymer would need to get at least 7.6 points from Augusta. In order to do that, he needs to finish in the top-18. Obviously, that's possible, though he's never made the cut at Augusta. But in order for World #2 Lee Westwood to stay ahead of Masters Champion Tiger, he would need approximately 32 points, which requires a finish in the top-3. And World #3 Phil Mickelson would need 60 points to stay ahead of Tiger, and there's only one way to do that: he would have to finish second. (That would be ironic: Tiger wins the Masters, Phil finishes second, and Phil becomes #1.) So, while Kaymer has a fairly plausible scenario to fend off Tiger, essentially no one else does. Also note that Mickelson can get to #1 if he finishes solo second and Kaymer does no better than 18th, while Westwood can take the top spot with a finish inside the top-4 depending on Kaymer's results. Kaymer, for his part, would need the following results to defend against wins by the other six players: vs. Woods, 18th or better; vs. Casey, nothing? Hmm, that's weird, my numbers suggest that Paul Casey doesn't have this opportunity. It's possible that Steve Stricker is actually the 7th, or there is no 7th. Whatever. vs. McDowell, 54th or better; vs. Donald, top-3; vs. Mickelson, solo 2nd, vs. Westwood, no chance at defending. So there's a huge amount of volatility this week. If any of these guys wins, the odds are overwhelming that they'll be #1 six days from today (especially NOT McDowell, who's worse off than Tiger because he's got a larger denominator). Anyway, that's my analysis of how things will play out in the world rankings if one of the top players is in the mix to win the Masters. Should be exciting.