How To Evaluate Presidential Candidates

I think that one good thing to look at for early Presidential polls is not so much how Obama's doing against individual Republicans but the difference between his net approval ratings and his margins against various candidates. For instance, the recent Fairleigh-Dickinson poll has Huckabee at E, Romney at -1, Christie at -6, Pawlenty at -14, Gingrich at -15, and Palin at -20 against Obama. But it also has Obama with 44/48 approval numbers, a net -4. Assuming that changes in the approval ratings of incumbent Presidents will produce very similar changes in his performance against his opponents, which I think is reasonable, I think one good way to read this poll is that Huckabee is giving Obama a 4-point handicap, while Romney's giving him 5 points, Christie 10, Pawlenty 18, Gingrich 19, and Palin 24. These are the expected margins on election day if Obama's got 50/50 approval ratings by then. They're what the opposition candidates contribute to the election beyond its inherent referendum-on-the-incumbent quality. None of these Republicans is contributing less than -4. I think that's a broader trend across all polls, by the way: Obama consistently outperforms his approval numbers in the match-ups, and that probably means that yes, these candidates are all lousy. Just something to keep an eye on.