Expanding the Playing Field

As Barack Obama's poll numbers have steadily improved over the past month or two, I'm starting to think about where Obama might try to push the envelope beyond its '08 borders if he's in a strong position coming down the stretch in 2012. Which states should he try to win that McCain won last time? Here are my ideas:

- Missouri: This was the state McCain won by the narrowest margin. It's adjacent to his home state, and if he has any net improvement from '08 he ought to pick up Missouri. Also, there's a tough Senate race to defend with Claire McCaskill, which would be an ancillary benefit.

- Arizona: Obviously, this state wasn't in play in '08 because of the McCain home benefit, and Arizona's become sort of radicalized under the Jan Brewer administration. But it's still a very heavily Hispanic state, and the Hispanic vote ought to be overwhelming in '12. The neighboring states with heavy Hispanic populations, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, have all shifted toward the Democrats; it's time to take Arizona back.

- Texas: Nothing would hurt the Republicans more than losing Texas. There are a lot of Hispanics in Texas, and if their turnout increases noticeably then a Democrat can win this state. At the worst Obama should be able to drive the Republican into a massive arms race, which isn't a bad thing if you have a financial advantage.

- Georgia and South Carolina: Polling from PPP suggests that Obama's position has been improving in the South of all places. If that's true, then these two states ought to be somewhat in play. There are a lot of black people in these states, and I have to think that it would be possible for a strong Obama campaign to win here.

The other most logical place for him to expand would be the plains/mountains west; he did quite well (for a Democrat) in the Montana/Dakotas region and managed to pick off the Omaha, Nebraska electoral vote. But I'm not sure there's really much point focusing on that area in the Presidential race, since it's just all so trivial in terms of the electoral college.