In Fairness, the Phillies

Now I'll analyze the Phillies the same way, in part because they're the Mets' main rivals and in part because they're expected to be the class of the National League once again. The players who departed from Philadelphia were Cody Ransom, Nate Robertson, and Jayson Werth, while Greg Dobbs, Chad Durbin, Paul Hoover, Jamie Moyer, and Mike Sweeney from the '10 Phillies haven't signed with anyone. Assume they all leave. These players were worth 0.0, -0.3, 5.2, -1.0, 0.4, 0.1, -0.2, and -0.1 wins. That's a total of 4.1 wins departing the Phillies, which brings them down from 97 wins to just 92.9.

The players they imported are also pretty good, though. They are: Brian Bass, Eddie Bonine, Kevin Cash, Erik Kratz, Jeff Larish, Cliff Lee, Dan Meyer, Brandon Moss, Robb Quinlan, and Delwyn Young. In 2010, those players produced -0.4, -0.1, -0.9, -0.8, 4.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.7, and -0.6 wins above replacement. That adds up to a net gain of +0.2 WAR. Including the addition of Cliff Lee. That brings the Phillies back up to 93.1 wins.

Now, as for expected changes from their '10 performance to '11 (and yes, I will still use "hope" to indicate a better-than-expectable improvement):
Catchers (5.0 2010 WAR):

Carlos Ruiz, 4.4 WAR
Brian Schneider, 0.6 WAR

Ruiz has never performed at that elite level of production before. I would think Phillies fans would be delighted if he repeats his '10 performance (same with Schneider), and that it's more reasonable to expect a bit of regression.

Expected: -1.0     Hoped: +0

First Baseman (2.1 2010 WAR):

Ryan Howard, 2.1 WAR

I think Phillies fans have a legitimate right to want a better year out of Howard than they got last year, especially since he spent time being injured. Howard's not young, though, so I don't think they can count on very much rebound.

Expected: +0.5     Hoped: +2

Second Baseman (4.2 2010 WAR):

Chase Utley, 4.2 WAR

Utley likewise spent time being injured last year and performed below his career levels; they have a right to expect improvement. I'm not sure you can really expect a 31-year-old to rebound to a 6.6 WAR/year standard, though.

Expected: +0.5     Hoped: +1.5

Shortstop (1.7 2010 WAR):

Jimmy Rollins, 1.7 WAR

Rollins' hitting was just as bad in '10 as it had been in '09, he just didn't play for as long. Metrics say his defense improved, though, which is why his overall number jumped. Given that he, too, will be 32, and has been mediocre for two years and not one, I'm not sure it's really reasonable to expect him to rebound too much.

Expected: +0     Hoped: +1.5

Third Baseman (1.8 2010 WAR):

Placido Polanco, 1.8 WAR

Polanco did get injured a little bit, and I think he also played slightly below his career average. He'll be 35, though, so again I don't think improvement is to be expected.

Expected: +0     Hoped: +1

Left Fielder (1.0 2010 WAR):

Raul Ibanez, 1.0 WAR

Ibanez stayed healthy the whole year, but his power was down astronomically from '09 and his defense continued to degrade. He'll be all of 39 next year. No expected improvements here, sorry.

Expected: +0     Hoped: +0.5

Center Fielder (3.6 2010 WAR):

Shane Victorino, 3.6 WAR

Victorino's still young and 2010 wasn't an unprecedented performance for him, so I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect a repeat of the same and to consider it possible that he'll improve.

Expected: +0     Hoped: +1

Right Fielder (-0.6 2010 WAR):

Domonic Brown, -0.6 WAR

This is a big potential improvement spot for the Phillies. Not over actual '10, mind you, since Werth was worth 5.2 WAR. But Brown is described as an absolutely top prospect, he killed it in the minors last year before sucking in minimal playing time late, and he ought to do much better than he did last year.

Expected: +2.0 WAR    Hoped: +3.5 WAR

Bench (2.9 2010 WAR)

Brian Bocock, -0.1 WAR
Freddy Galvis, 0.0 WAR
Harold Garcia, 0.0 WAR
Cesar Hernandez, 0.0 WAR
Michael Martinez, 0.0 WAR
Carlos Rivero, 0.0 WAR
Matt Rizzotti, 0.0 WAR
Wilson Valdez, 1.7 WAR
Ben Francisco, 0.8 WAR
Ross Gload, 0.4 WAR
John Mayberry, 0.1 WAR

Valdez will probably face considerably reduced playing time. No reason to expect changes among the others, though, I'd guess.

Expected: -1.2     Hoped: -0.5

Total expected Phillies wins, through the offense: 93.9 wins

Starting Rotation (20.0 WAR):

Roy Halladay, 6.9 WAR
Cliff Lee, 4.3 WAR
Roy Oswalt, 5.1 WAR
Cole Hamels, 4.7 WAR
Joe Blanton, -0.7 WAR

Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt are all masters of their crafts who produced about like what they did in '10 in the years prior. They're all really old, and Halladay and Oswalt did have their best recent years, so I certainly don't think we expect an increase in their performance (in fact, I don't think it's even reasonable to hope for it). Lee might improve a little, though. Hamels had his career year, but he's had similar years previously. He'll probably do a little worse in '11, just averaging a lousy '09 into the mix, but you can't be sure. Meanwhile, Blanton has not been that kind of bad before 2010, but he's been inconsistent. Most of his suckitude in '10 was due to BAbip, I think, though, so we can probably project him for an improvement.

Expected: -1/+0.5/-0.5/-1/+1.5 = -0.5       Hoped: 0/+1.5/0/0/+3 = +4.5

Bullpen (2.2 2010 WAR):

Brad Lidge, 1.1 WAR
Ryan Madson, 1.3 WAR
Danys Baez, -0.8 WAR
Antonio Bastardo, 0.1 WAR
Drew Carpenter, -0.1 WAR
Jose Contreras, 0.7 WAR
Justin De Fratus, 0.0 WAR
David Herndon, -0.1 WAR
Kyle Kendrick, -0.3 WAR
Scott Mathieson, -0.1 WAR
Drew Naylor, 0.0 WAR
J.C. Ramirez, 0.0 WAR
J.C. Romero, 0.2 WAR
Vance Worley, 0.5 WAR
Mike Zagurski, -0.3 WAR

Lidge isn't young, and it's hard to know what you're going to get out of him (+2.8 in '08, -3.3 in '09). I'd say 1.1 is about as good a guess as anyone can make. 1.3 is an awful lot to get out of a set-up man, and it's about what Madson's been doing for several years now. The rest of their bullpen is about replacement-level, as I imagine most bullpens are after the closer and set-up man.

Expected: +0      Hoped: +2.0

Total Phillies Expected Wins: 93.4
Total Phillies "Optimistic" Wins: 110.1

Okay, so the Phillies are way out of the Mets' league. But the Mets' optimistic performance is still ahead of the Phillies' reasonable performance, by my estimates. And there's considerable downside for the Phillies: Ruiz, Utley, Victorino, Howard, Polanco, Ibanez, Rollins, Halladay, Oswalt, Lidge, Madson, and Lee will all be in their age-30 or older seasons in 2011. These guys are being counted on for 36.6 wins. A couple of badly-placed injuries could be really disastrous.

So the Phillies will probably beat the Mets by about 10 games next year. That's the most likely outcome. But there's a whole lot of variance in that forecast. You never know.