Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Gingrich? Really?

My father was of the opinion, from rather early in the Republican primary contest, that Newt Gingrich would be the nominee. When Gingrich's campaign crumbled into dust, and he sank to ~3% in the polls, he admitted he was probably wrong, though he wasn't yet ready to concede defeat. After all, John McCain's campaign crumbled to dust in the summer and fall of '07, but he made a comeback. Such things do happen. Well, according to the only pollster I trust, PPP, Gingrich is in third place now, at 15%, behind Cain's 30% and Romney's 22% but narrowly ahead of Perry's 14%. My whole logic as to why Romney will lose is that Cain's bubble seems very likely to pop at some point, and those supporters aren't going to Romney. Typically I assume that means they'll go back to Perry, which is where most of them came. But maybe not. His campaign still seems kind of moribund, and Gingrich is trending upward in the polls. At this point I will not be shocked if Gingrich ends up winning. I won't be shocked if Perry wins, either, or if Romney does manage to hold on. (I will be shocked if Cain wins, though. Genuinely shocked.)

Needless to say, I would be thrilled if Gingrich beats Romney. Romney was tied against Obama in that poll, with a net -6% favorability. Perry's got a -9 margin against Obama, and -34% favorability. Gingrich has a -11 margin, and -26% favorability. I don't think you can be elected President with the kinds of numbers Perry and Gingrich are putting up. I dare the Republicans to nominate anyone other than Romney; if they do, it'll be a fun year!

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