- A team with a particularly entrenched shortstop, or a shortstop they're invested in, is not going to be interested in Reyes. Not because he wouldn't make their team better, but because they'd be wasting someone, and thus wasting money. Reyes is the best shortstop in baseball.
- A team with a particularly entrenched leadoff hitter will be an unattractive destination for Reyes. He likes batting leadoff, and he's a free agent now. Is he really going to sign with a team that can't basically say, we can basically promise you that you'll hit first in the order every day in 2012, and after that until you start to suck? I doubt it.
- Jose is likely to command a salary in the ~$15-20 million range. Teams whose payrolls in 2011 weren't all that much more than that are unlikely to be interested. Teams who weren't paying any of their players appreciably more than $10 million, also not likely players.
Ruled out by money: Royals, Rays, Pirates, Padres, Indians, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Blue Jays, Nationals, Athletics, Astros, Reds, Orioles. Of interest: among these teams, I'd say Miami, Washington, Arizona, Toronto, Baltimore, and Cleveland probably have good enough shortstops that they wouldn't be that interested in Reyes anyway. He would instantly dominate the leadoff conversation with any of these teams, though. One slight wild-card: there's some evidence from last offseason that the Nationals are interested in expansion of their payroll, and if they feel like giving up on Desmond and giving a Werth-like contract to Reyes (notice how I didn't say Werth-y?), they could complicate things.
Mariners: Brendan Ryan's their shortstop, he's under a ridiculously cheap contract for next year, and he's decent enough in his good years. Ichirio, meanwhile, is still under (a very large) contract for 2012, and is the entrenched (read: 161 starts!) leadoff hitter. The Mariners are a team with a lot of extremely cheap pieces and a few really expensive ones. If they have money tucked away, they could decide it's time to give up on Ichiro as leadoff hitter, but since they'd be giving up on Ryan as well I doubt they will.
Rangers: Elvis Andrus is their shortstop, and Ian Kinsler their leadoff hitter, though he could do other things if he wanted to. Neither is going anywhere, Texas isn't the kind of team with gobs of money to spend, and my Rangers-fan friend assures me the Rangers won't be interested in Reyes.
Twins: They didn't have one entrenched leadoff batter this year, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka's their shortstop. That, or Trevor Plouffe. In other words, they could use a Jose Reyes. There's some money coming off the books, too, though the enormous Mauer and Morneau contracts aren't going anywhere. The Twins look to me like they're a little over their head in terms of payroll right now, and coming off this awful of a year I bet they'll be looking to downsize/rebuild rather than sign another injury risk. Also, is Jose really going to want to sign with a 63-win team, that plays in the freezing cold in a tiny market? I'm skeptical.
White Sox: Juan Pierre, the master of trying to steal more than he should, was their leadoff hitter and will not be under contract next year, while their pretty-good shortstop Alexei Ramirez will be. I think Ramirez is a good enough shortstop that the White Sox won't be majorly interested in an upgrade there.
Tigers: Jhonny Peralta's their rather good shortstop, and Austin Jackson's their leadoff hitter. They're also not an enormous-market team, though after an ALCS appearance they might have a bit of extra cash sitting around. But I think their well-enough set in Reyes' specialties that they won't be too interested in him.
Dodgers: Dee Gordon is both their shortstop and leadoff hitter. He's a young, touted prospect-y type. The team's in massive financial turmoil, to make the Mets' difficulties look trivial. I doubt they dump their prospect for an expensive import.
Rockies: This one's easy. There is only one team in baseball that can actually say, Jose Reyes would not be a clear upgrade for us at shortstop, and it's the Rockies. Tulo's locked up until forever. They don't have a great leadoff hitter, but it doesn't matter. They're not in the bidding, full stop.
Chicago: Starlin Castro, another hyped prospect, is their shortstop and, as of the trade of Fukudome, their leadoff hitter. No effing way they bring in a shortstop to replace Castro. Not happening. As unlikely as in the Rockies' case (not that Castro's on the level of Reyes/Tulo).
Braves: Alex Gonzalez was their shortstop, didn't hit this year at all, and is leaving after it. Moreover, the Braves are a reasonably big-market team. But their addition of Michael Bourn changes things, quite a lot. I think it's almost impossible Bourn isn't on the Braves next year, and maybe beyond. And, as the guy who's been beating Reyes for the stolen-base crown the past few years, he's one of the few guys whose presence on a team's roster could jeopardize Reyes' ability to hit leadoff. For that reason, I'm deeply skeptical that Jose would want to sign with the Braves.
Brewers & Cardinals: The upcoming NLCS foes are sort of similarly situated vis-a-vis Reyes. At shortstop this year, they deployed Yuniesky Betancourt on the one hand and a combo of Ryan Theriot and Rafael Furcal on the other. Both Theriot and Furcal are free agents, and Betancourt, well, kind of sucks. Meanwhile, their leadoff positions have been filled by a combo of Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart (really guys? Corey Hart, leadoff?) and by a combination of, well, Theriot and Furcal. In other words, both of these teams have serious holes that Reyes would seriously fill. But neither team is huge-market, especially the Brewers. And both teams are similarly situated with regards to their first basemen. Pujols and Fielder are the only names on the offseason's free agent lists above that of Reyes. Both are beloved on their life-long teams. Pujols has defined the Cardinals since, well, let's face it, his major league debut, and Fielder is part of a team-definitional tandem with the locked-up-forever Ryan Braun. I expect both of these teams to be a lot more interested in pursuing their own big-name free agent then in pursuing Reyes. But, especially with the Cardinals, if they fail in that pursuit they could become players. I'm sure as hell hoping that Pujols re-signs with the Cards, just to eliminate them from the Reyes chase.
Yankees and Red Sox: If there are ever two teams who don't care about money, it's these guys. But neither will be involved. The Yankees have the aged remains of Derek Jeter playing shortstop, and especially given what he did post-3000th hit there's no way they're giving up on him yet. Besides, they've got too many leadoff hitters as is: Jeter, Gardner, Granderson. Again, seriously guys, you let Jeter bat leadoff? Really? As for Boston, Scutaro's a decent-enough shortstop, they're considered likely to pick up his option, and Jacobi Ellsbury's MVP-caliber season out of the leadoff spot would seem to jeopardize Reyes' ability to hit first. Probably they'd let Reyes hit first, with Ellsbury lower in the order due to the power he's been flashing, but since they've got good solutions at both of these spots and, uh, don't have any starting pitching, they won't go after Jose.
Phillies: Jimmy Rollins has been forever, and was still in 2011, their leadoff-batting, switch-hitting shortstop. He and Reyes are absurdly similar to each other, except that Jose is better (obviously). They're even both free agents this year! That has led Rollins to roll out another edition of J-Roll's Patented Anti-Mets Trash Talk, this time about the way that Jose Reyes won the 2011 batting championship of the National League. Here's the thing, though: I think the Phillies want to re-sign Rollins. And I think that if they don't, there's no way they go after Reyes. The entire Phillies culture seems to have this weird dislike of Reyes, maybe 'cause he's so much better than Rollins, I'm not sure. The same applies to the Mets, by the way: 0.00000% chance we go after Rollins. I'm not sure who'd play shortstop for the Phillies next year if Rollins leaves, though Victorino's probably been the better leadoff hitter for a few years now already, but there's just no way it's Reyes.
Angels: Erick Aybar's their shortstop, and still under team control for next year. He and Maicier Izturis, who would be the natural in-house candidate to replace Aybar, have shared leadoff duties this year. Aybar has had two really great years, '09 and '11, interspersed among mediocrity at best. Izturis has been a little more dependable, though with a lower ceiling, and is under contract. Looking at that situation, I don't see the Angels as a team likely to be hugely interested in Reyes. The Angels are a big-money team, though, fourth behind Philadelphia, Boston, and the Yankees this year. And I've heard reports that Reyes has said that he'd be intrigued by the idea of signing with the Angels. I don't know if there's any reason to think they'll be interested, but if they are, they could be leading contenders.
Giants: They have (enough) money. They have a lousy offense that undermines their excellent pitching. They have Brandon Crawford, a young, un-hyped, un-prospect at shortstop, and Andres Torres of the .319 OBP and 19 stolen bases this year hitting leadoff. They also have Carlos Beltran, who has expressed interest in re-signing with the Giants and has been vocal in his desire for Reyes to join him there. They also have a need to make a splash after failing to defend a World Series title, badly. They have all the parts of a perfect Reyes suitor, in other words. I don't know much about GM Brian Sabean, or his predilection for making big-name signings like that. I do think that the Giants have got to be considered one of the leading contenders for Reyes. However, I have also heard that C.C. Sabathia, who is apparently a very good friend of Jimmy Rollins, who in turn was the first to predict Sabathia's move to the Yankees, has said he thinks Rollins will sign with the Giants. If Rollins expresses interest to the Giants, they might take him as a cheaper, not-quite-as-good Reyes alternative.
Which brings us to...
Mets: In 2012, the Mets can expect to see Ruben Tejada playing shortstop, and (maybe) Angel Pagan hitting leadoff. There are rumors the Mets could non-tender Pagan, though, in which case they would really lack for a speedster. And while Tejada's a good young player who looks like he might have a bright future ahead of him, his defense (which is his calling card) has been better at second base than at shortstop. And, oh yeah, he makes a particularly nice double-play combination with one Jose Bernabe Reyes. And while the Mets don't have a lot of money, they have a bunch of bad contracts coming off the books and have a fair amount of re-investing room. There's probably only room for one big-name signing, and the Mets have said that they want Reyes to be that signing. He loves hitting in this ballpark, he's beloved by the fanbase, his family is in New York, he's been with this team his whole life, and he's expressed a desire to stay. In other words, I think the New York Mets are probably the team with the most attributes of a potential Reyes suitor.
What we're left with, then, is that the Mets and Giants look like the only two teams who are obviously in the race, with the best ability to give Reyes what he wants and get what they need from him. The Angels could join the party if they decide to do something flashier than an Aybar/Izturis combination next year. The Brewers or especially the Cardinals could jump in if Fielder and Pujols end up leaving. Maybe one of the small-market teams, most likely the Nationals, comes hurtling in from left field. Other than that... it's not the world's hugest market, is it?
For what it's worth, in 58 plate appearances at AT&T Park, where the Giants play, Reyes has hit .278/.328/.481, which is decent (especially on the power side) compared to his career averages but a lot worse than the .319/.371/.492 he's hit at Citi Field in 684 PA. He's had just 22 PA at Angel Stadium, but hit .476/.500/.810 in that small sample. Maybe that's why he's interested in playing there. The current Busch Stadium has not appealed to him, yielding a .224/.295/.376 line in 95 plate appearances. At Miller Park he's been mediocre, .258/.321/.402. A little worse at Nationals Park, .268/.303/.366. So, the small sample size of the Angels aside, it looks like the best fits for Reyes in terms of stadium are the Mets, followed by the Giants, followed by no one much.
It really looks to me like it's Mets vs. Giants, with Rollins' actions and the Angels' hypothetical interest the main things that could disrupt that state of affairs. Here's hoping some other free agent catches the Giants' eye.
No comments:
Post a Comment