Sunday, October 23, 2011

The Weird Limbo of the Republican Race

So, Herman Cain's inevitable collapse no longer looks so inevitable, and is starting to look kind of, uh, yesterday's news? Already happened? Something. So for the past few days we've been treated to a) a parade of stories about the implosion of the Cain campaign, and b) a parade of polls taken before the last debate that show the same old Cain/Romney race with Perry a very distant third. It is my assumption that these polls do not reflect the current state of the field. So what is the current state of the field? We don't know. It'll be very interesting to see what happens when a few more recent polls get released.

UPDATE: According to PPP, the state polls of Nevada and Wisconsin they conducted over this weekend continue to show the Cain/Romney two-man race, with Gingrich in 3rd and Perry's favorabilities awful. That surprises me, quite a lot. Maybe it won't hold up, but it looks like the past week of what felt like rather dramatic changes in the dynamic of the race didn't actually affect anything. If that's the case... is Herman Cain's support somewhat more solid than I had thought? If the week he's had hasn't cut into his support? I mean, if the apparent polling strength of Cain was as weak and symbolic as I thought it was, you'd think that any little excuse to vote against him, and especially waffling like he's displayed lately on the abortion issue, would be latched on to with a vengeance. So, it's weird, and if the polling doesn't start changing soon I'm going to revert to my earlier state of thinking that just maybe Cain has made himself into the real deal.

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