Obama is Leading Mitt Romney

Some recent Public Policy Polling surveys, such as one from Nevada showing Obama and Romney tied there, suggest that Obama is locked in a pretty tight race with Mitt Romney right now. And indeed he is! But he is, nevertheless, leading that race. Here's a projected electoral map based on most recent PPP state polls, or reasonable expectations of which way a state will break:

Now, PPP hasn't polled Indiana, because you can't computer-dial there, so I've given that state to Romney, even though Obama won it in 2008. Look closely at this map. Obama is not leading in New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, all of which he won (some of them handily) in 2008. And yet, he wins this election with 299 electoral votes locked up, compared to Romney's 195 (with the remaining 44 EV's tied). Obama could lose all three tied states, plus either North Carolina or Florida where he holds a 1-point lead, and still win (with 284 or 270 EV's, respectively, the latter being a win on the number).

Now, this is not to suggest that Obama is in great shape. I think his odds versus Romney are roughly speaking even. But he is currently a whisker ahead of Romney. Despite an approval ranking of just 42.8%, and net approval of -9.4%. Those are awful numbers, Romney's the best the Republicans have by a long margin, and yet Obama is ahead of him. Meanwhile, GDP growth numbers announced today were better than expected, though not good. It is truly amazing how much the Republicans are screwing up an opportunity to beat a genuinely unpopular incumbent Democratic President. Maybe they'll still pull it off, but the odds that they won't are way, way better than they "ought" to be.