How the Mets Should Run Their Outfield

One of the running questions in Mets spring training this year has been, the way it's phrased, whether Juan Lagares or Eric Young, Jr. should be the team's third starting outfielder. The assumption is that the first two are Curtis Granderson, the Mets' biggest free agent signing since Jason Bay, and Chris Young, one of their other notable signings of the off-season. Phrased that way, the answer is obvious: Lagares should start. Last year, while hitting .242/.281/.352 (an OPS+ of 80, well below league average), Lagares was worth something in excess of 3 wins above replacement. Since that was in just 421 plate appearances, he was a couple of wins above average. His defense is ridiculous, making him an incredibly productive player even if we regress the defense a little bit. Eric Young, meanwhile, even after coming to the Mets (when his performance improved) was in that zone between average and replacement-level. He was a passable left fielder, though not deserving of his Gold Glove nomination, but really his only virtue was his speed, and though he was a great baserunner last year there's a limit to how valuable that is if it's all you offer. The argument for Young to start is just that Terry Collins wants a base-stealer at the top of the lineup. Well, Lagares has the same base-stealing numbers as EYJ this spring, 3 SB/1 CS, and as he's not likely to be outhit at the plate by Young there's no reason to think he'd be a worse leadoff hitter.