Analyzing Peter Bourjos

(This is all in light of my previous post.)

Apparently people are speculating that a trade centered around Peter Bourjos moving from the Angels to the Mets and R.A. Dickey moving from the Mets to the Angels. That's a horrible idea; Bourjos is not worth R.A. Dickey. He's not worth Jon Niese. But is he worth having at all?

One might be given pause by the fact that he hit .220/.291/.315 last year in limited usage as a reserve outfielder (195 PA), accumulating just a 73 wRC+ and having been on pace for about -24 runs above average from batting over a full season. He's a spectacular enough defender that he was still worth 1.9 fWAR and 1.1 bWAR last year, but still, the awful hitting gives one pause. Moreover, his genuinely good season of hitting in 2011, when he hit .271/.327/.438 with 12 home runs, 11 triples, and 22 steals, en route to a roughly 4.5 WAR season (when combined with his being a brilliant center fielder) was sustained in large part by a .338 BAbip, which looks unsustainable given his low line drive percentage (14.5% over the course of his career, worst in the majors over that period).

Except... when I plug his numbers into an xBAbip calculator, which projects a batting average on balls in play by the nature of those balls in play, I find that Bourjos if anything under-performs his expectations on balls in play. Using 2012 numbers, in which offense (including BAbip) was way down, his 2012 season should've produced a .300 BAbip, instead of the .274 it did produce. In 2011, sure, he was outperforming slightly; that year should've been a .331 instead of a .338 by 2011 numbers, and would've been just .321 in 2012. Meanwhile, in 2010, his rookie season, Bourjos had just a .228 BAbip but his batted balls should've resulted in more like a .285. So over the course of his young career, Bourjos has had some genuinely bad luck on his balls in play, even considering the trajectories on which he's hit those balls. Why is this true, despite his woeful lack of line drives? Probably because he hits quite few fly balls, which have the worst BAbip of anything; for someone who doesn't hit many home runs, this is a sensible approach.

I think, therefore, that Bourjos would be worth picking up, for a low enough price. (I.e., not for Dickey or Niese!) Even when he's been a lousy hitter, he's been a valuable player because of his speed and defense, and there's reason to think that his offensive results so far have been a floor rather than a ceiling. He'd fill exactly the Mets biggest hole, and with a bit of coaching from Dan Hudgens, might even be able to improve his offensive approach a bit. And when he's good, Bourjos has shown that he's not just good, he's really good, like 4+ WAR good.

The Murphy + McHugh for Bourjos trade I outlined in my previous post would leave the Mets with an offensive cadre of Josh Thole (C), Anthony Recker (C), Ike Davis (1B), Jordany Valdespin (2B), Ruben Tejada (SS), David Wright (3B), Lucas Duda (LF), Peter Bourjos (CF), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (RF), Justin Turner (IF), Zach Lutz (IF), Mike Baxter (OF), and, well, someone else. Not sure who. If they were then to sign Scott Hairston and, perhaps, trade Duda and another one of their non-top-flight pitching prospects to some AL team in exchange for, maybe, a better backup catcher type, that would be a good offensive core. Maybe toss in a backup middle infielder type to make up for the fact that they'd have a Valdespin/Turner combo manning second base. You'd have a lineup that could be Bourjos/Tejada/Wright/Davis/Hairston/Kirk/Turner/Catcher against lefties, and Bourjos/Valdespin/Wright/Davis/Kirk/Baxter/Tejada/Thole against righties, or something.

I can't stress enough how much the Mets shouldn't give up either Dickey or Niese for Bourjos, or even for a package centered around him. But Bourjos for Murphy and McHugh, or something similar on our end, strikes me as eminently fair, and a deal that would improve both teams.

Hot Damn, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim appear to be planning on signing free agent outfielder Josh Hamilton. If true, that would leave the Angels with a seriously stacked top of the batting order, with Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo, and Mike Trout. It also would give them a surplus of outfielders, with Hamilton, Trout, Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos. Bourjos, in particular, looks a bit redundant; he's like Mike Trout only not as good at baseball. In fairness not many are as good at baseball as Mike Trout is; the point is really that he's a similar style—gifted defensive outfielder, speedy leadoff-type hitter, right-handed outfielder. What the Angels, assuming they do sign Hamilton, are lacking is infielders: they currently project to play Howie Kendrick at second base, Erick Aybar at shortstop, and Albert Callaspo at third. Those players were all quite good in 2012, totaling around 10 bWAR, but none of them were exactly whizzes at the plate, with Callaspo's .331 OBP leading the group and that coming with just a .361 SLG attached to it. The team is also rather top-heavy when it comes to pitching: they've got C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver to lead their rotation, and a solid core of Ernesto Frieri, Ryan Madson, and Sean Burnett in their bullpen, but not a lot beyond those guys. The rotation currently projects to fill out with Tommy Hanson, on whom the Braves just gave up, Joe Blanton, who, c'mon, is Joe Blanton, and Jerome Williams, who spent half of last year in the Angels' rotation and then the half of it after they acquired Zack Greinke in the bullpen, with a combined 4.58 ERA between the two roles. 

What I'm getting at, in case it wasn't clear, is that I think there's a trade to be had between the Angels and the Mets. The Mets' major need right now is for a right-handed outfielder, preferably a defensively gifted center fielder, and also preferably someone who would provide either power or speed. That describes Peter Bourjos perfectly, and, oh look, he's redundant on the Angels! The Mets, meanwhile, have a boatload of young or young-ish pitchers any one of whom could be a solid back-of-the-rotation Major League starter: guys like Dillon Gee or Collin McHugh in particular, but also Chris Schwinden and Jeremy Hefner. We also have Daniel Murphy, who on our team gets forced into an awkward position at second base because his natural position, third base, is, well, blocked until 2020. Murphy and McHugh to the Angels for Bourjos strikes me as fair for both teams. The Mets would be able to slot Bourjos into center field and the leadoff spot, while putting someone, probably Jordany Valdespin to start with, at second base, and perhaps complementing him at some point in the season with Wilmer Flores. The Angels could make Murphy their everyday third baseman, a position at which he's pretty good defensively, have Callaspo as a utility infielder, and slot McHugh into the rotation, probably in the #5 slot. I think that would improve both teams, and I think it's something both teams could easily agree to. Now, I do not think that Bourjos is worth trading either of the Mets' top potential pitching trade chips, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese, but Murphy plus McHugh seems eminently fair.

The Angels have just pulled off a stunning coup, if this report is true, and one that leaves them with an imbalance of resources. The Mets just happen to have a neatly complementary resource imbalance. The signing of Josh Hamilton, in addition to improving the Angels, might be able to improve the Mets as well.