Yesterday the New York Yankees signed catcher Brian McCann, formerly of the Atlanta Braves for his entire career, to a five-year contract worth $85 million that includes a vesting option for a sixth year that would bring the total to roughly six figures. It's a pretty great signing for them, as detailed here, and also a really obvious one. McCann is a dead pull left-handed power hitter, a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium's absurdly shallow right field fence. Plus, he already has a reputation as the "fun police" or "fun cop," as he started I believe multiple brawls this past season over opposing team's apparent enjoyment of their own success, and the Yankees as we all know are ideologically opposed to fun. It also, most importantly from a baseball standpoint, resolves their extremely messy catching situation, which until they signed McCann consisted of employing career backup catcher Chris Stewart as their everyday catcher and several players not good enough to be a backup catcher as Stewart's backup. Now, presumably, they can just use McCann/Stewart and have a genuinely good catching duo.
Showing posts with label Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yankees. Show all posts
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
The Pete Rose-ification of Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter's 2013 season is done. It was terrible. He appeared in all of 17 games for the Yankees, during which he hit .190. Yeah, .190. As in, twelve hits in 63 at-bats. Overall slash line of .190/.288/.254, and while the on-base gap is nice, it's not remotely enough to make up for the awful. As if that weren't enough, according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference Jeter managed to put up impressively terrible defensive numbers in those 17 games, costing something like 4 or 5 runs below average. The result is -0.6 fWAR, plus the fact that his replacements have been named Jayson Nix, Luis Cruz, Alberto Gonzalez, Reid Brignac, and Eduardo Nunez. My god Eduardo Nunez is bad. Overall Yankee shortstops not named Derek Jeter have accrued -1.5 fWAR. That's -2.1 fWAR overall when you add Jeter to the mix. And this on a team that's a game or two away from contention. Or, to put it another way, add anything resembling Derek Jeter-as-was to the 2013 Yankees and they would be a playoff team, easily.
Tee hee.
The point here isn't exactly to gloat about how Derek Jeter is awful now, or how it's entirely his fault that the Yankees are going to miss the post-season this year. Those things are true, and they're fun. The point is to make a comparison with another player. Because Jeter, you see, has not been a league-average player in quite a few years. 2009, in fact, was his last year of being actually good. Through the end of that year he had 2747 hits over 9809 plate appearances, a career .317/.388/.459 batting line, a 121 OPS+, and 67.4 bWAR, of which 35.2 were in fact Wins Above Average, despite being a terrible, terrible, terrible defensive shortstop (-187 Defensive Runs Saved). Since then, even including his year-and-a-half resurgence after getting his 3000th hit, he has 569 hits in 2159 plate appearances and a .291/.350/.392 batting line. That's not terrible. In fact, it gives him an OPS+ of 99. Usually being a league-average hitter who plays shortstop is a really good player. But there's that pesky "plays shortstop" thing; DRS pegs Jeter at -47 fielding runs over these four years, during which time Jeter's been in slightly less than three full seasons' worth of games. Combine that with average offense and you're looking at three wins below average, and enough playing time to turn that into 4.2 WAR. The turning-point for Jeter came at age 35, his last actual good season, the last time his offensive production was enough to make up for his legendarily awful defense.
Let's consider another player, a pure hitter type of guy known for "playing the game the right way" or whatever. A guy who spent most of his career as an infielder, though unlike Jeter he moved around the three non-shortstop spots. Like Jeter, however, he wasn't a very good defensive player. Through age 38, his batting line was .312/.381/.432, which (once you account for Yankee Stadium's power boost) is almost identical to Jeter's line through age 35; in fact, his OPS+ was better, at 126. This guy played more than Jeter had, though, getting 12196 plate appearances, so he managed a whopping 3372 hits over those years. He also accrued 80.7 bWAR including 42.5 WAA, and was an above-average player every year except his first two in the big leagues. Then, however, he stopped being very good. For the rest of his career he hit .274/.354/.333, good for just a 92 OPS+ (which was, incidentally, a 99 for the first three of those years, during which he played nearly as much as Jeter has over the last four). Over the rest of his career, this guy was, well, awful. He played first base, and played it badly, so tossing in the mediocre hitting we get -1.3 bWAR. Yeah, that's wins below replacement. So, -13.6 wins above average. That changed his career totals from the sparkling numbers presented above to 79.4 WAR and just 28.9 WAA, which is a little worse than marginal for the Hall of Fame.
Of course, all that playing time means that he had another 884 hits over those seven years, giving him 4256 for his career, the most all-time. This is Pete Rose we're talking about, obviously. The parallels to Jeter are interesting. (No, I'm not saying Jeter has bet on baseball, although I did just read the Rose v. Giamatti case for my Procedure class and I do think Jeter's not the shining white knight he's often portrayed as.) They have both had long careers being genuinely very good hitters, and receiving a kind of worship disproportional to their actual production. Rose parlayed his legendary status into an extension of his career way beyond what he deserved so that he could pass Ty Cobb's hits record. In fact, for much of that time he was player-manager, giving himself those extra opportunities. Jeter has already used his legend status to get something he should have relinquished a long time ago, namely his position. In 2004 the Yankees acquired Alex Rodriguez, meaning that they had two All-Star-level shortstops on their roster. One of those guys was a pretty good fielder. One of them was not. One of them moved to third base to accommodate the other. It wasn't the guy with the good glove. Now, Rodriguez has been a relatively poor third baseman with the Yankees, so maybe he would've been even worse continuing as a shortstop, but it's not like Jeter hasn't gotten worse with age, too.
So now the question is, how much will Jeter continue to do the Pete Rose thing, and stick around long after he's lost the ability to be actually good just to pad his career stats? He's got a player option for $9.5 million for 2014, and I've got to think he'll take it. Will the Yankees play him? DH him? Whatever they do, it seems likely he'll be a drag on their team, until they can convince him to ride into the sunset. That will quite likely be the '14 off-season, but it would be nice to see him stick around longer like Pete Rose did, hemorrhaging wins from his career stat-line and letting his reputation and his ego turn into a massive problem and a barrier to competitiveness for the team he's become famous with. It should be a lot of fun, especially on top of the problems gathered around that other shortstop they got in '04.
Tee hee.
Tee hee.
The point here isn't exactly to gloat about how Derek Jeter is awful now, or how it's entirely his fault that the Yankees are going to miss the post-season this year. Those things are true, and they're fun. The point is to make a comparison with another player. Because Jeter, you see, has not been a league-average player in quite a few years. 2009, in fact, was his last year of being actually good. Through the end of that year he had 2747 hits over 9809 plate appearances, a career .317/.388/.459 batting line, a 121 OPS+, and 67.4 bWAR, of which 35.2 were in fact Wins Above Average, despite being a terrible, terrible, terrible defensive shortstop (-187 Defensive Runs Saved). Since then, even including his year-and-a-half resurgence after getting his 3000th hit, he has 569 hits in 2159 plate appearances and a .291/.350/.392 batting line. That's not terrible. In fact, it gives him an OPS+ of 99. Usually being a league-average hitter who plays shortstop is a really good player. But there's that pesky "plays shortstop" thing; DRS pegs Jeter at -47 fielding runs over these four years, during which time Jeter's been in slightly less than three full seasons' worth of games. Combine that with average offense and you're looking at three wins below average, and enough playing time to turn that into 4.2 WAR. The turning-point for Jeter came at age 35, his last actual good season, the last time his offensive production was enough to make up for his legendarily awful defense.
Let's consider another player, a pure hitter type of guy known for "playing the game the right way" or whatever. A guy who spent most of his career as an infielder, though unlike Jeter he moved around the three non-shortstop spots. Like Jeter, however, he wasn't a very good defensive player. Through age 38, his batting line was .312/.381/.432, which (once you account for Yankee Stadium's power boost) is almost identical to Jeter's line through age 35; in fact, his OPS+ was better, at 126. This guy played more than Jeter had, though, getting 12196 plate appearances, so he managed a whopping 3372 hits over those years. He also accrued 80.7 bWAR including 42.5 WAA, and was an above-average player every year except his first two in the big leagues. Then, however, he stopped being very good. For the rest of his career he hit .274/.354/.333, good for just a 92 OPS+ (which was, incidentally, a 99 for the first three of those years, during which he played nearly as much as Jeter has over the last four). Over the rest of his career, this guy was, well, awful. He played first base, and played it badly, so tossing in the mediocre hitting we get -1.3 bWAR. Yeah, that's wins below replacement. So, -13.6 wins above average. That changed his career totals from the sparkling numbers presented above to 79.4 WAR and just 28.9 WAA, which is a little worse than marginal for the Hall of Fame.
Of course, all that playing time means that he had another 884 hits over those seven years, giving him 4256 for his career, the most all-time. This is Pete Rose we're talking about, obviously. The parallels to Jeter are interesting. (No, I'm not saying Jeter has bet on baseball, although I did just read the Rose v. Giamatti case for my Procedure class and I do think Jeter's not the shining white knight he's often portrayed as.) They have both had long careers being genuinely very good hitters, and receiving a kind of worship disproportional to their actual production. Rose parlayed his legendary status into an extension of his career way beyond what he deserved so that he could pass Ty Cobb's hits record. In fact, for much of that time he was player-manager, giving himself those extra opportunities. Jeter has already used his legend status to get something he should have relinquished a long time ago, namely his position. In 2004 the Yankees acquired Alex Rodriguez, meaning that they had two All-Star-level shortstops on their roster. One of those guys was a pretty good fielder. One of them was not. One of them moved to third base to accommodate the other. It wasn't the guy with the good glove. Now, Rodriguez has been a relatively poor third baseman with the Yankees, so maybe he would've been even worse continuing as a shortstop, but it's not like Jeter hasn't gotten worse with age, too.
So now the question is, how much will Jeter continue to do the Pete Rose thing, and stick around long after he's lost the ability to be actually good just to pad his career stats? He's got a player option for $9.5 million for 2014, and I've got to think he'll take it. Will the Yankees play him? DH him? Whatever they do, it seems likely he'll be a drag on their team, until they can convince him to ride into the sunset. That will quite likely be the '14 off-season, but it would be nice to see him stick around longer like Pete Rose did, hemorrhaging wins from his career stat-line and letting his reputation and his ego turn into a massive problem and a barrier to competitiveness for the team he's become famous with. It should be a lot of fun, especially on top of the problems gathered around that other shortstop they got in '04.
Tee hee.
Monday, May 21, 2012
Losing Mariano Rivera Hurts, Doesn't It?
During the month of April, the New York Yankees' bullpen was spectacular. Rafael Soriano had a 1.29 ERA. Boone Logan had an 0.96 ERA. Cory Wade was at 1.69. David Robertson, the set-up man and prospective future closer, had an ERA of, well, 0.00. Unscored upon. The great Mariano Rivera was arguably bringing up the rear with his pathetic 2.16 ERA, though the only runs he had given up were the two in a blown save and loss on the Yankees' Opening Day. So, a good bullpen. But then Rivera got injured, tore his ACL shagging fly balls prior to a game, and went down for the season. That led the Yankees to basically promote each of their relief pitchers, with Robertson becoming the closer and a chain reaction taking place behind that. So, how'd that go?
Well, so far in the month of May, Soriano's had a 3.86 ERA. Cory Wade, 3.38. Boone Logan, 3.68. And David Robertson was working on a 10.80 ERA before he, too got himself injured, straining a muscle in his ribcage. These four relievers went from a collective 0.95 ERA in April to a 4.56 ERA in May. It's not just the loss of Rivera directly that's hurt the Yankees, not just the fact that they don't have him available to pitch the ninth inning. It's that, with everyone yanked (so to speak!) out of their accustomed roles by his sudden injury, each of the remaining relievers has gotten worse. A lot worse.
Speaking as a Mets fan, I can only say that it's going to be fun watching the late innings of Yankees games for the rest of this season. For the first time in my memory.
Well, so far in the month of May, Soriano's had a 3.86 ERA. Cory Wade, 3.38. Boone Logan, 3.68. And David Robertson was working on a 10.80 ERA before he, too got himself injured, straining a muscle in his ribcage. These four relievers went from a collective 0.95 ERA in April to a 4.56 ERA in May. It's not just the loss of Rivera directly that's hurt the Yankees, not just the fact that they don't have him available to pitch the ninth inning. It's that, with everyone yanked (so to speak!) out of their accustomed roles by his sudden injury, each of the remaining relievers has gotten worse. A lot worse.
Speaking as a Mets fan, I can only say that it's going to be fun watching the late innings of Yankees games for the rest of this season. For the first time in my memory.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Yu Darvish: Wait, Do I Actually Have To Root *For* The Yankees?
So, it continues to look like Yu Darvish, who is en route to posting his fifth consecutive full season in the Japanese baseball leagues with an ERA under 2, wishes to play in America next year. That probably means that he'll get his current team in the Japan Leagues to "post" him. At that point, MLB teams who are interested get to submit sealed, secret bids to that team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, for the right to negotiate with Darvish, and the team with the highest bid wins those rights. They then get 30 days to negotiate a contract with him, and if no deal is signed he goes back to the Fighters (who could in theory post him again, if there's still time). Now, since I've heard of Darvish-san I've been rooting pretty damn hard for the Mets to get him, and with various of the Wilpons' legal troubles looking like they're being resolved in a positive way (for the Wilpons) that rooting is getting even stronger. But there is, as always, one major problem in such a plan: the Yankees.
The Mets are a reasonably big-market team, and if the legal troubles are resolved then they have about as much money as anyone. That means that, if they openly assess what the maximum amount they'd be willing to pay for the opportunity to talk to Darvish, the number they come up with has a decent chance of being high enough to win. Except, that is, for the fact that if the Yankees ever want to, they can just blow everyone else out of the water. So the question is, will the Yankees want him?
The Mets are a reasonably big-market team, and if the legal troubles are resolved then they have about as much money as anyone. That means that, if they openly assess what the maximum amount they'd be willing to pay for the opportunity to talk to Darvish, the number they come up with has a decent chance of being high enough to win. Except, that is, for the fact that if the Yankees ever want to, they can just blow everyone else out of the water. So the question is, will the Yankees want him?
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Yankee Arrogance, Part N
Eighty-four players were selected for the 2011 Major League Baseball All-Star Game. Including those players who are, because of injury or because of having started a game this past Sunday, ineligible to play in the game, seventy-nine of those eighty-four are in attendance. Two of the five who are not there, Chipper Jones of the Braves and Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, recently had major surgery. The other three are C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter. Those three have something in common: they are all New York Yankees. This is not a coincidence.
Among other things the Yankees like to say about themselves, I think there's an idea that being a Yankee is the only honor one needs. Sure, they'll go play in the All-Star game: I've never ever heard of someone just saying, nah, I don't feel like doing that, except due to an injury.* But if they can't play anyway, why bother showing up? Who cares about the praise and acclamation of the country's baseball fans?* They're Yankees, so they don't need any of that. All they need is wins and rings, blah blah blah. Being who I am, I can't help but compare that attitude to Jose Reyes, who has (strangely) been injured at the time of three of the four All-Star games he's been selected to in his career. But he's shown up every time, because it's a tremendous experience and a great honor and, hell, he's just plain excited and enthusiastic about playing baseball. Even if he can't play, he wants to show up and support his (temporary) team. But for a Yankee, that's beneath you. Show up just to support a bunch of people who aren't trying to help you win the World Series this year? Eh.
I think it's interesting to look at what two of the American League All-Stars said in the little montage on the subject of what it means to be an All-Star. Curtis Granderson said that it's about "repping these pinstripes on the big stage." David Ortiz, speaking immediately after him, said it was about "being teammates, if just for one day, with guys wearing pinstripes. Ughhhh." I think that's kind of emblematic of the Yankees' view of this game: it's about being a Yankee. It's about representing the Yankees, and demonstrating how amazing the Yankees are. If you can't play, if you can't go out and demonstrate your superiority, why bother?
*Derek Jeter is not injured. I seem to recall he played rather well in a game just recently, something like 5-5 with a home run, and he's planning on playing the first game back from the All-Star Break. No, he's not injured, he's just worried he might get injured if he played the All-Star Game. Likewise, I think Rivera's not properly injured either, as he pitched on Saturday, though I'm not as certain of that. Now, personally I think it's a perfectly reasonable decision to beg out of an exhibition contest to avoid the possibility of re-aggravating an injury, but still, let's not pretend that Jeter (or possibly also Rivera) are missing this game due to injury. They're missing this game due to caution.
*Okay, so it's also true that about two-thirds of the country's baseball fans hate the Yankees, and they would probably hear more boos than cheers. But I think Chase Utley has a word or two for the Yankees about how to handle the prospect of being booed, ne?
Among other things the Yankees like to say about themselves, I think there's an idea that being a Yankee is the only honor one needs. Sure, they'll go play in the All-Star game: I've never ever heard of someone just saying, nah, I don't feel like doing that, except due to an injury.* But if they can't play anyway, why bother showing up? Who cares about the praise and acclamation of the country's baseball fans?* They're Yankees, so they don't need any of that. All they need is wins and rings, blah blah blah. Being who I am, I can't help but compare that attitude to Jose Reyes, who has (strangely) been injured at the time of three of the four All-Star games he's been selected to in his career. But he's shown up every time, because it's a tremendous experience and a great honor and, hell, he's just plain excited and enthusiastic about playing baseball. Even if he can't play, he wants to show up and support his (temporary) team. But for a Yankee, that's beneath you. Show up just to support a bunch of people who aren't trying to help you win the World Series this year? Eh.
I think it's interesting to look at what two of the American League All-Stars said in the little montage on the subject of what it means to be an All-Star. Curtis Granderson said that it's about "repping these pinstripes on the big stage." David Ortiz, speaking immediately after him, said it was about "being teammates, if just for one day, with guys wearing pinstripes. Ughhhh." I think that's kind of emblematic of the Yankees' view of this game: it's about being a Yankee. It's about representing the Yankees, and demonstrating how amazing the Yankees are. If you can't play, if you can't go out and demonstrate your superiority, why bother?
*Derek Jeter is not injured. I seem to recall he played rather well in a game just recently, something like 5-5 with a home run, and he's planning on playing the first game back from the All-Star Break. No, he's not injured, he's just worried he might get injured if he played the All-Star Game. Likewise, I think Rivera's not properly injured either, as he pitched on Saturday, though I'm not as certain of that. Now, personally I think it's a perfectly reasonable decision to beg out of an exhibition contest to avoid the possibility of re-aggravating an injury, but still, let's not pretend that Jeter (or possibly also Rivera) are missing this game due to injury. They're missing this game due to caution.
*Okay, so it's also true that about two-thirds of the country's baseball fans hate the Yankees, and they would probably hear more boos than cheers. But I think Chase Utley has a word or two for the Yankees about how to handle the prospect of being booed, ne?
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