If Only They Had Signed Reyes

Earlier today the New York Mets signed Curtis Granderson to a four-year contract. He'll be their everyday left fielder in 2014, probably. This is the Mets' second major move of the off-season, after the signing of Chris Young to play right field. Both are good signings, I think, though I was hoping they'd sign Shin-Soo Choo. So, what's left to do? Well, the most obvious remaining hole on the roster is shortstop. Also they don't really have any very good choices for leadoff hitter. Hmmm, I wonder...  who could fill that void?

Oh yeah, this guy:

Seriously, letting Jose Reyes go was the biggest mistake the Mets have made in a long time. Imagine he were on the Mets instead of the Blue Jays right now. They'd have an offense consisting of Travis d'Arnaud at catcher, some sort of platoon of Josh Satin and one of Ike Davis or Lucas Duda at first, Daniel Murphy at second, Reyes at short, David Wright at third, Granderson in left field, Juan Lagares patrolling center, and Chris Young playing right, with the likes of Wilmer Flores, Eric Young, Jr., Matt den Dekker, or Ruben Tejada as backup players. Here's how I'd picture the default lineups with that roster:

vs. RHP:                                    vs. LHP:
Jose Reyes, SS (S)                    Jose Reyes, SS (S)

Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)             Juan Lagares, CF (R)
David Wright, 3B (R)               David Wright, 3B (R)
Curtis Granderson, LF (L)        Chris Young, RF (R)
Chris Young, RF (R)                 Curtis Granderson, LF (L)
Ike Davis, 1B (L)                      Travis d'Arnaud, C (R)
Travis d'Arnaud, C (R)              Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
Juan Lagares, CF (R)                Josh Satin, 1B (R)

That's a good offense, if you ask me. And it's got plenty of flexibility with Young (Eric) and Tejada on the roster. Instead, Tejada's currently the projected starting shortstop, Wilfredo Tovar is the default backup infielder (I think), and the big free agent shortstop, Stephen Drew, is a bottom-of-the-order guy who does nothing to solve the leadoff problem. If Reyes were still on this team, in other words, it would look to have a very well-rounded, well-balanced offense heading into 2014, with the slightly messy first base situation by far the biggest problem. Instead they're looking at another year, likely, of struggling at the top of the order, which will probably spell trouble for the whole team. And sure, they could do something unconventional like just shift everybody up one, bat Murphy leadoff and Wright second, but that's not likely to happen under Terry Collins.

I'm not necessarily saying the Mets should try to trade for Reyes now, although I'd be overjoyed if they did so for a reasonable price. I'm just saying that the decision not to match Miami's offer two offseasons ago was inexcusable, remains by far the worse thing Sandy Alderson has done as Mets GM, and continues to haunt this team. Reyes is exactly what they need right now, and he's exactly what they don't have.


May the Yankees come to regret letting Robinson Cano go the way the Mets miss Reyes right now. (Off-topic, but necessary)

A Plan for the 2014 Mets

I have, for now at least, abandoned my in-depth series on what I think the Mets should do over the off-season to make the 2014 version of the team good. But I'm feeling inspired to just write up a quick post giving one vision of a strategy they could pursue. Note that this is not necessarily a feasible strategy; there is one trade, in particular, that I don't know could be made. But the trade isn't necessarily an absurd one, and I think it would be the best way to make the team genuinely dynamic next year, even in Matt Harvey's absence, which for the sake of argument I will be assuming in this post. If Harvey can come back for some or all of next year, so much the better. First I'll just list the players I'd want/hope to have on the 25-man roster on Opening Day next year, and then after the break I'll give commentary.

Catchers
Travis d'Arnaud, R
Juan Centeno, R
Infielders
Ike Davis, 1B, L
Wilmer Flores, 2B, R
Jose Reyes, SS, S
David Wright, 3B, R
Josh Satin, 1B, R
Ruben Tejada/Wilfredo Tovar/Omar Quintanilla, SS
Outfielders
Shin-Soo Choo, LF, L
Matt den Dekker, CF, L
Juan Lagares, RF, R
Eric Young, Jr., LF/2B, S
Andrew Brown, OF, R
Starting Pitchers
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Jon Niese, LHP

Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Rafael Montero, RHP
Relief Pitchers 
Bobby Parnell, RHP
LaTroy Hawkins, RHP
Vic Black, RHP
Jeurys Familia, RHP
Josh Edgin, LHP
Scott Rice/Darin Gorski/Jack Leathersich, LHP
Carlos Torres, RHP

Jose Reyes is Gone, Long Live Jose Reyes

Ugh.

That was my first reaction to the news that the Marlins had drastically upped their offer to Reyes, and were likely to sign him last night. That kept being my reaction through the various developments about the details of the offer, to the time when it was officially announced that my favorite active baseball player in all the world is no longer a member of my favorite team. Ugh.

In fact, that kept being my reaction right until the time I went to bed last night. Ugh, I don't want to think about it, this sucks, etc. But I find that, somewhat to my surprise, on waking up today I have a less viscerally repulsed feeling about the whole thing. Instead my reaction has sorted itself into fairly specific judgments of the various parties involved in the whole affair:

$90 million, 6 Years. Really?

Apparently the Marlins' opening offer to Reyes was $90 million spread out over 6 years. That's an average of just $15 million per year, vastly less than the nearly $26 million that Fangraphs says he's been worth, on average, in his four good years ('06, '07, '08, and '11), and barely more than the $11.5 million he was worth in a disappointing 2010. Now, here's the thing: legend has it the Mets are reluctant to go more than four years for Reyes. If that's a firm sticking-point, it's an idiotic one. Among other things, the expectation has got to be that five years from now this team will not be as hard-up for cash as it is right now. In other words, the marginal value of a dollar for the Mets is much higher now than it will be five years from now. The $15 million they might risk paying an aged or injured Reyes in 2017 will be worth a lot less to them than the $20 million they might pay him next year.

More to the point, this is a just-plain-low salary. Suppose the Mets are in the extreme willing to go to five years, and don't care as much about the dollar figure as about not exceeding five years. Well, if those five years have an average salary of $18 million, then the headline figure on the contract would be... $90 million. Add in some reasonable options for future years, maybe vesting if he stays really, really healthy in Year 5 and team or mutual if he doesn't, and you're talking about a contract that sees Jose Reyes' lifetime earnings be categorically higher than under the Marlins' offer. If you assume that a) Reyes will take the longest-in-years guaranteed contract he can find, and b) the Mets are categorically unwilling to match a six-year offer, then yeah, this blows the Mets out of the water. But a) would be a slightly strange principle on which for Reyes to be operating, and at the very least there's no reason to assume it must be true.

Reyes, the Mets, the Marlins, and Short- vs. Long-Term

Apparently the Marlins might offer Jose Reyes something like a three-year, $20 million per year deal. People are arguing that Reyes ought to accept that deal: he'd get three years to play in his prime, and would then get to hit free agency again, still (more or less) in his prime! But here's the thing: stipulate that Reyes might be interested in taking that deal. Why in the world couldn't the Mets match it? It's clear to me that they can fit the ~20 million into next year's payroll, especially if the deal is a little bit back-loaded. Most of the concern I've heard from the Mets people is over giving Reyes lots and lots of years. I'm pretty sure that if Reyes goes to the Marlins on a three-year deal, it doesn't just mean the Mets weren't interested in him, it means he's not interested in the Mets: not with a hometown discount, and not without one. If so, he's been lying, publicly, repeatedly, for the past year.

Meanwhile I'm fairly certain the statement in this article that "most people in baseball think it’s already a forgone conclusion that Reyes will take his talents to south beach" is false. It's still November, guys: nothing's a forgone conclusion. And as to his forming "one hell of an infield" with Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, and Gaby Sanchez, I think Wright, Davis, and Tejada/Murphy compare not-unfavorably to that group.

Predicting the Future is Hard, Jose Reyes Edition

Today I read several things about the impending free agency of Jose Reyes. One of them said that an insider with the organization told the writer that the Mets have no intention of keeping Reyes, that their offer will be cursory. Later that same article claimed that, also on the basis of some kind of insider rumor "knowledge," that the Detroit Tigers plan on making a serious run at Reyes. Another article, predicting the destinations of 50 top free agents, predicted that Jose would find his way to Milwaukee, and also mentioned the Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Giants, Pirates, Reds, Twins, Rays, and Cardinals as teams needing shortstop help (aside from, obviously, the Mets in whom Reyes' departure would leave a gaping hole). What with Milwaukee's having declined an option on Yuniesky Betancourt, despite his awesome post-season run, I can't really argue that the Brewers might be serious players, but a) Reyes won't sign with a team that has Michael Bourn, as he would have to compete for the leadoff spot; b) the Phillies will not sign Jose Reyes; c) I have repeatedly heard that the Giants might be interested in Rollins (who might be interested in them) but definitely feel Reyes is out of their price range; d) the Pirates, Reds, Twins, and Rays are all just way too small-money teams to sign Reyes (as the article acknowledges); e) the Cardinals and Rafael Furcal have expressed mutual interest, though obviously not on the terms of the $12 million option the Cardinals declined yesterday; e) the Nationals also ought to lack the funds to go after Reyes, and they already have a passing-fair shortstop (though not one without his problems).

Finally, I read an article saying that Dave Dombrowski, the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers, stated in so many words at a press conference today that the team would not go after Reyes. Moral of the story? Prediction is hard, especially about the future. One guy says he has insider source that the Tigers are in, and then we get objective "outsider" confirmation that they aren't in. So far what we know is that the Mets haven't signed Reyes yet. Every single report I've heard, and there are lots of them, suggest that no one expects the Mets to sign Reyes during their exclusive negotiation period. It also seems like the "market" for Reyes will be surprisingly weak, with most of the teams anyone has suggested as potential landing spots sounding cautious if not skeptical if not uninterested. That's what we know. These facts are consistent with the idea that the Mets really have no intention of keeping Reyes, and will only make a perfunctory offer. They're also consistent with the idea that the Mets just don't want to outbid themselves, have every intention of going hard after Reyes, but don't want to make the kind of Piazza-esque offer that is so clearly better than anything else Reyes could get on the open market that it removes the desire to test said market unless they have to. If Reyes hits free agency on Thursday and discovers that there just aren't any teams interested in signing him to a seven- or even six-year deal, so that it's the Mets' five-ish-year offer versus other five-ish-year offers, then we'll start to see whether there is genuine interest between the Mets and Reyes in connecting at a reasonable price. Not before then, not on the basis of anonymous tips from so-called insiders, and not from such anonymous tips reported by people who have previously declared early and often that they don't think it would be wise for the Mets to bring Reyes back.

ReyesWatch Update

Apparently five Mets executives spoke to Joel Sherman and conveyed the impression that they don't think Jose Reyes is likely to sign with the team. The article in question mentions that the Marlins, Nationals, Braves, and Brewers might all be strong suitors for Reyes, diminishing the odds of the Mets' being able to keep up with the market offer. But I've separately heard reports that the Nationals are unlikely to bring in a big free-agent hitter like Reyes. Meanwhile Brewers shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, of whom Brewers GM Doug Melvin recently said that he is "a better player than what his critics said," hit an insane .310/.326/.500 in the post-season, including 5 rather clutch RBI's in the six games of the NLCS, and the Brewers will have re-signing Prince Fielder as their first priority. As for the Braves, I continue to think that Jose Reyes is not going to want to sign with a team that has Michael Bourn, for the very simple reason that they couldn't promise him that he wouldn't start any games batting anything other than first this year. There is zero reason for him to agree to that; he hates batting other than leadoff. That just leaves the Marlins, a team with a fraction of the money the Mets have even amidst their difficulties, who already have a shortstop who in his peak (one to two years ago) people said was better than Reyes. Now sure, they could move Hanley to third, and maybe they will, but given Ramirez' somewhat apparently fragile mental state it might not be as great an idea as it sounds. The Tigers, another team I've heard mentioned, also have a very good shortstop. They could move Peralta to third, but what if they think (plausibly) that he's the better defender than Reyes? Could they promise Reyes that he would start every game at shortstop?

The point is, every other team out there has lots of good reasons not to go after Reyes, too, or for Reyes not to want to sign with them. Maybe we'll get lucky, the market for Jose will be weaker than expected, and the Mets can stay competitive after all.

Reyes and the Hall of Fame

Just for fun, I've been playing around with the numbers and trying to see how I would construct a baseball Hall of Fame, from scratch, and I just went through the shortstop section. My observation was that twice the career numbers of Jose Reyes would compare really well with a lot of Hall-caliber shortstops throughout history. If we doubled Jose's career so far, he'd have 2600 hits, 444 doubles, 198 triples, 162 home runs, 1470 runs scored, and 740 steals in 8906 at-bats and 9680 plate appearances. He'd be second all-time among players with at least 40% of games at short in triples, behind Honus Wagner; 11th in doubles; 11th in hits; hell, he'd be 20th in home runs! He'd be eighth all-time in runs scored, seventh in extra-base hits, seventh in total bases. All while being just 14th in plate appearances. And, oh yeah, something else: he'd be first, all-time, in stolen bases, seventeen ahead of Honus Wagner, and nearly 100 steals ahead of third-place Bert Campaneris.

In other words, Twice Jose Reyes would be an all-time great offensive shortstop. And guys like Alex Rodriguez, Ernie Banks, and Robin Yount, who began their careers as shortstops but then switched positions mid-way through their careers, are included in the rankings above. Run the threshold to, say, 70% of career games as a shortstop, and he becomes a top-5 all-time shortstop. Now, granted, the man does not have the defensive numbers that someone like Ozzie Smith, or really most of the Hall of Fame-caliber shortstops, put up throughout their careers, but defensively at least he's no Derek Jeter (the second-worst defensive player all-time according to baseball-reference, and the 7th-worst according to Fangraphs). And remember, all of this is assuming he can just double his career so far. That career has seen only five healthy, productive years out of the nine he's played. And there's also some evidence (see: his 2011 National League batting championship) that he's gotten even better than he used to be. It makes sense: 28 is typically the age when players enter their prime.

The point is, there's every possibility that Jose Reyes will be one of the greatest offensive shortstops of all time, not to mention the best speedster ever to play the infield. If the Mets know what they're doing, they'll make sure this offseason that when he gets his plaque, it's got the Mets' logo on his cap.

Reyes Landing-Spot Analysis

I am not, even remotely, a baseball insider. I can read MLB Trade Rumors as well as the next person, but I have no way to actually know what goes on in any given GM's office. But I want to write a post about likely destinations for free agent Jose Reyes, so I'm going to do it using these principles:

1. A team with a particularly entrenched shortstop, or a shortstop they're invested in, is not going to be interested in Reyes. Not because he wouldn't make their team better, but because they'd be wasting someone, and thus wasting money. Reyes is the best shortstop in baseball.
2. A team with a particularly entrenched leadoff hitter will be an unattractive destination for Reyes. He likes batting leadoff, and he's a free agent now. Is he really going to sign with a team that can't basically say, we can basically promise you that you'll hit first in the order every day in 2012, and after that until you start to suck? I doubt it.
3. Jose is likely to command a salary in the ~$15-20 million range. Teams whose payrolls in 2011 weren't all that much more than that are unlikely to be interested. Teams who weren't paying any of their players appreciably more than $10 million, also not likely players.

So, with that in mind, here's my analysis:

More on Reyes

As I understand it, the common gripe against Reyes' tactics last Wednesday are that "batting titles should be reserved for heroes, not cowards," and that bunting for a base hit his first time up and then taking himself out of the game in order to (in all probability) beat Ryan Braun for the batting championship. So, some problems with this.

I'm Sorry, Did Someone Say Reyes Has Character Issues?

I just read an article (while procrastinating from editing my philosophy essay due in 158 minutes) arguing that Jose Reyes' character issues (which, of course, compare unfavorably to the God of Intangibles Derek Jeter) are a price worth paying for his on-field production. Never mind that that's absolutely right, Reyes' pure production on the baseball diamond would be worth just about any amount of unpleasant character. He was on pace for a 9-win season this year, prior to injury. But since when did Jose Reyes become someone with character issues?

Jose Reyes

Reyes has played nine years with the New York Mets so far. He may or may not play for them again. Here's a sample of how some of the numbers he's put up rank in team history, and how he might move up if he stays or move down if he leaves.

The Fate of National League Batting Champions

Jose Reyes recorded 181 base hits in 537 at-bats during the 2011 Major League season, for a batting average of .337. The next highest batting average by a player with enough at-bats to qualify was Ryan Braun's .332 (Braun went 0-4 tonight, validating to some extent Reyes' strategy of bunt-and-run). Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop and leadoff hitter, is your 2011 National League batting champion.

Just for fun, let's consider the fate of other recent National League batting champions. It's not great:

• 2010 champion Carlos Gonzalez (COL LF, .336) saw his average decline to a career-average-ish .295 this year, though his power and walk-drawing skills, if anything, improved. He did play in slightly fewer games this year, and overall was worth just half as many wins above replacement this year (2.6) as last year (5.0). However, it's way too soon to tell if this is a protracted decline or just the fact that you don't have a career year every year.
• 2009 champion Hanley Ramirez (FLA SS, .342) saw his average drop to .300 last year, and plummet all the way to .243 this year. He's collapsed since winning his batting title. WAR numbers for the last three years: 7.2, 3.7, 0.4. I hope Reyes does not decide to emulate Hanley's post-batting-title performance.
• 2008 champion Chipper Jones (ATL 3B, .364) hasn't been nearly the player he used to be after winning his title. Over the four years ending in '08, his lowest average was .295, lowest OBP .409, lowest SLG .556, lowest HR 21. He was really good. Since then, his high in average is .278, OBP .388, SLG .478, HR 18. His WAR numbers were 6.6 in '08, 7.9 in '07, but just 2.4, 3.2, and 3.0 since then. He's still a good player, unlike Hanley, but he's no longer a superstar-level player.
• 2007 champion Matt Holliday (COL LF, .340) has done just fine, thank you very much. Since winning his title, he's hit .311/.395/.527. No problems there. In fact, his OPS+ with the St. Louis Cardinals has been 154, higher than the 144 he posted in his batting-champion year. Admittedly he's been averaging just 4.8 WAR/year as opposed to the 7.3 mark he put up in '07, but you can't do 7.3 every year and 4.8 is still all-star level play.
• 2006 champion Freddy Sanchez (PIT UT, .344) is a somewhat strange case. He won his batting title as a utility player with no one position all his own. In that '06 season he was worth 5.5 WAR. Since then, aggregate, he's been worth 6.4 WAR. In five years. The weird thing is that it's hard to call this a decline, since he was never that good before '06. But he sure as hell hasn't showed the same batting-champ form subsequently.
• 2005 champion Derrek Lee (CHC 1B, .335) has seen some ups and downs since his triple-crown-threat '05. Since then, he's hit .289/.367/.485, with highs of .317/.400/.579 and lows of .260/.323/.428. He's averaged just 2.2 WAR per year, down from the 3.0 WAR/year from 2000 to 2005. Some years he looks like a bust, like the year right after winning the crown when he only had 200 plate appearances. Other years, like 2007 and 2009, he's looked just fine. So it's hard to say.

Overall, since Barry Bonds last led the league in hitting the National League batting champions have had a somewhat difficult time maintaining their form. Here's hoping Reyes bucks that trend, and that he does it in a Mets uniform.

Can the Mets Afford Reyes? Yes, Easily, and Then Some

If the Mets want to take a maximally inactive approach this offseason, then their team next year will look something like this:

C: Josh Thole                     SP1: Johan Santana
1B: Ike Davis                    SP2: Jon Niese
2B: Daniel Murphy                    SP3: R.A. Dickey
SS: Ruben Tejada                    SP4: Dillon Gee
3B: David Wright                    SP5: Mike Pelfrey
LF: Jason Bay                    
CF: Angel Pagan                    CL: Bobby Parnell
RF: Lucas Duda                   

The bench and bullpen, meanwhile, will be filled with a bunch of rather low-level players from within the organization. My rough estimate is that such a team would have a payroll of approximately $86 million. There's a little bit of further downsizing they could do, too, if they wanted to, like replacing arbitration cases Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey with current minor-leaguers like Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Chris Schwinden, that could shave another few millions.

Reyes Contract Proposal

Mike Francesca says, apparently, that he thinks he's heard that Jose Reyes would take something along the lines of 6 years, $120 million from the Mets, and that the Mets might make such an offer. The concern that people have about such a deal is that at the end of it Reyes would be 34. To my mind that's not a big deal: the traditional prime is 28-32, which suggests that the first approximately four years of that deal ought to be great for Reyes, and even if he trails off in the last two years of the deal it's plenty of production over those years. But, of course, the main reason people are concerned about committing to Reyes until that kind of age is that they view him as injury-prone. So here's my proposal: why not use some vesting options? They have a bad rep with Mets fans right now due to K-Rod's rather absurd one, but it strikes me that this is exactly the situation vests are designed for.

Let's say we make the contract like this: five guaranteed years at $20 million/year. For the sixth year, also at $20 million, there would be a very reasonable threshold in terms of games played, either over the length of the contract or in the last few years of it. Maybe something like 130 games per year, something that Reyes will easily meet if he is generally healthy but that he might miss if he has another couple of injuries like what he had in '09. If he misses those targets then it would become, let's say, a mutual option. Then, because we're asking Reyes to accept a somewhat less guaranteed situation for the sixth year of the deal, there would be something similar for the seventh year of the deal. Maybe it would be a mutual option, maybe it would be a vesting option with a threshold around 140-150 games in 2017. Either way, unlike the K-Rod option it wouldn't be for an outlandish amount of money. That way, the point really would be that if Reyes demonstrated that he was healthy (which is of course the main concern people have with giving him a long-term deal) then he would get a longer-term deal, but if he wasn't healthy the team wouldn't be on the hook for someone who wouldn't be able to play much. So Reyes has an opportunity for a contract worth nearly $140 million, while the Mets protect themselves from being stuck with an old and decrepit player. Sounds like a win-win, doesn't it?

Why Jose Reyes Should Want to Stay With the Mets

Here's a thought experiment: let's assume that Jose Reyes plays the rest of his home games at Citi Field. And let's assume that his performance both on the road and at Citi Field stays constant for the rest of his career. Now let's assume he plays, on average, 150 games split evenly between home and road games for the rest of his career. What would his career stats look like in 2020?

Yankee Arrogance, Part N

Eighty-four players were selected for the 2011 Major League Baseball All-Star Game. Including those players who are, because of injury or because of having started a game this past Sunday, ineligible to play in the game, seventy-nine of those eighty-four are in attendance. Two of the five who are not there, Chipper Jones of the Braves and Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, recently had major surgery. The other three are C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter. Those three have something in common: they are all New York Yankees. This is not a coincidence.

Among other things the Yankees like to say about themselves, I think there's an idea that being a Yankee is the only honor one needs. Sure, they'll go play in the All-Star game: I've never ever heard of someone just saying, nah, I don't feel like doing that, except due to an injury.* But if they can't play anyway, why bother showing up? Who cares about the praise and acclamation of the country's baseball fans?* They're Yankees, so they don't need any of that. All they need is wins and rings, blah blah blah. Being who I am, I can't help but compare that attitude to Jose Reyes, who has (strangely) been injured at the time of three of the four All-Star games he's been selected to in his career. But he's shown up every time, because it's a tremendous experience and a great honor and, hell, he's just plain excited and enthusiastic about playing baseball. Even if he can't play, he wants to show up and support his (temporary) team. But for a Yankee, that's beneath you. Show up just to support a bunch of people who aren't trying to help you win the World Series this year? Eh.

I think it's interesting to look at what two of the American League All-Stars said in the little montage on the subject of what it means to be an All-Star. Curtis Granderson said that it's about "repping these pinstripes on the big stage." David Ortiz, speaking immediately after him, said it was about "being teammates, if just for one day, with guys wearing pinstripes. Ughhhh." I think that's kind of emblematic of the Yankees' view of this game: it's about being a Yankee. It's about representing the Yankees, and demonstrating how amazing the Yankees are. If you can't play, if you can't go out and demonstrate your superiority, why bother?

*Derek Jeter is not injured. I seem to recall he played rather well in a game just recently, something like 5-5 with a home run, and he's planning on playing the first game back from the All-Star Break. No, he's not injured, he's just worried he might get injured if he played the All-Star Game. Likewise, I think Rivera's not properly injured either, as he pitched on Saturday, though I'm not as certain of that. Now, personally I think it's a perfectly reasonable decision to beg out of an exhibition contest to avoid the possibility of re-aggravating an injury, but still, let's not pretend that Jeter (or possibly also Rivera) are missing this game due to injury. They're missing this game due to caution.
*Okay, so it's also true that about two-thirds of the country's baseball fans hate the Yankees, and they would probably hear more boos than cheers. But I think Chase Utley has a word or two for the Yankees about how to handle the prospect of being booed, ne?

Thoughts on All-Star Voting Results

First of all, JOSE!!!!!

Second of all, I think almost all of these elections are correct. On the A.L. side of things, Alex Avila, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, and David Ortiz are rather clearly the best at their positions. Josh Hamilton's spent a lot of time injured this year, which means there are a bunch of outfielders who've compiled better seasons, but he was last year's MVP and when he's played this year he's been great. I think that's a completely reasonable pick. On the N.L. side, Brian McCann, Rickie Weeks, Jose Reyes (!!!), and Matt Kemp are pretty clearly the best people out there.

But let's be honest, the Derek Jeter thing is absurd. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage this year are both .324, and his defense, as usual, sucks. Asdrubal Cabrera is slugging .502, and Jhonny Peralta's hitting .311/.359/.538 with good defense. Hell, there are dozens of A.L. shortstops having better years than Jeter. And I understand career numbers making something of a difference, but Jeter hasn't even been okay this year, he's been awful. Meanwhile, Robinson Cano doesn't really deserve this, but in his case I think the career accomplishment thing is more understandable. Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, and Ian Kinsler all appear to be comparable at hitting, but doing a better job fielding; that's probably enough of a judgment call that you can't really fault anyone either way.

For the N.L., Rickie Weeks is more or less comparable to Danny Espinosa at second, and probably a little bit better than his voting rival Brandon Phillips; you can't fault the voters here, though there were other picks they could've made that would've been fine as well. Placido Polanco is probably the only hitter in the entire All-Star game who's a below-average hitter this year, though no other third basemen have distinguished themselves that much (with the exception of Pablo Sandoval, who's played about half the games). I don't think you can really complain about anything at such a weak position. As for the outfield, Andrew McCutchen is clearly the best out there, and it's a bit of a travesty that he's not even on the roster. And there are perhaps half a dozen other outfielders who arguably deserve to be there in lieu of Lance Berkman. But at the same time, I think that's kind of a reasonable pick.

As for the lineups, here's what I'd do based on these rosters. For the American League, Granderson, Cano, Gonzalez, Bautista, Ortiz, Rodriguez, Hamilton, Avila, and Jeter. (Yeah, ninth, that's right. If he's even there.) For the National League, Reyes, Braun, Kemp, Fielder, Votto (as DH), Berkman, McCann, Polanco, and Weeks.

Reyes or Wright?

I recently heard a rumor that the Mets are considering trying to trade David Wright instead of Jose Reyes if, as seems likely, they are forced to get rid of someone to rather drastically cut their payroll. I don't want to see either of these players moved, but I have to say that I think this would make a lot of sense. Wright is owed $15 million next year, and if Reyes is even slightly in the mood to give the Mets a home-team discount on his free-agent deal I think it's unlikely he'd be making more than that next year. Moving Wright would give Daniel Murphy a home, since third base is his natural position and appears to be his best one. From a defensive point of view, Murphy at third might be an upgrade over Wright, and Murphy-Reyes-Tejada-Davis is pretty clearly an upgrade over Wright-Tejada-Murphy-Davis.

Then there's the offensive component: would the lineup rather have Reyes or Wright in it? Historically David Wright's been the better offensive player, hitting .302/.382/.512 with an average of 27 home runs, 42 doubles, and 23 steals per 162 games, while Reyes hits just .288/.338/.437 with an average of 12 homers, 15 triples, 35 doubles, and 58 steals per 162. But over the last three years, or, that is, since the Mets build Citi Field, Wright has hit just .286/.367/.468 while averaging just 22 home runs and 164 strikeouts per 162 games. At Shea Stadium David Wright hit .318/.403/.555 and Reyes hit .297/.343/.447, but at Citi Field Wright has managed just .288/.382/.472 while Reyes is putting up a .322/.375/.500 line at the Mets' new home. This all makes sense: Citi Field was built for Jose Reyes. The bizarre right-field wall, which removed Wright's favorite home-run spot from Shea, provides lots of acreage in which for Jose to hit his triples. This year, his first year (so far!) fully healthy at Citi Field, he's on pace to hit about 25 triples, which is very close to a 99-year record. They've all been hit at home. In fact, at Citi Field Reyes has 8 triples against just 7 doubles, so the majority of the time he gets in-play extra-base hits at home they're for three bases.

Through 2008, David Wright hit .300 and managed at least 25 home runs for all four of his full big-league seasons. He consistently hit for power and average, which made him one of the best offensive players in the game. Since 2009, he's had one year when he hit .300, barely, but managed only 10 home runs. Then he had a year when he slugged 29 home runs, but hit just .283, a new career low. Now, in 2011, he's on pace for just 18 home runs (given his injury) and hitting just .226. There's a considerable case to be made that Citi Field is slowly ruining David Wright. It's not an iron-clad case; after all, he's been dealing with the concussion from '09 and the back injury of '11 for the past few years, so who knows what's really causing it. But it makes some sense that taking away his favorite power zone might make him less able to do what he always used to do.

To reiterate, I do not want the Mets to let go of either David Wright or Jose Reyes. I think they ought to both spend their entire careers in New York and go into the Hall of Fame as the two best Mets position players ever. But if the Wilpons' financial quagmire is going to force them to let go of one of their two star players, I think the choice is clear. David Wright is a very good power hitter, historically, but there are other very good power hitters out there and Wright appears to struggle at the Mets' new ballpark. Jose Reyes, on the other hand, is clearly the best leadoff hitter in the game today, and one of the best-hitting shortstops, and simply thrives at Citi Field. Also, he's a lot more fun to watch, and since the Mets have already literally built around him, they might as well build around him, you know?

Jose Reyes, High-OBP Guy

The New York Mets are third in the National League in on-base percentage from their leadoff hitter. They trail Chicago, a mixture of Starlin Castro and Kosuke Fukudome, both of whom have kinda absurd BAbip numbers as leadoff hitters, and Pittsburgh, a combination of Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata. Meanwhile, they also lead the league in on-base percentage from their shortstop. Lead the league! In batting average by shortstop they trail only Chicago's Starlin Castro, whom Reyes has exactly as many hits as, and in slugging percentage by shortstop they trail only Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki. But Jose Reyes leads National League shortstops in on-base percentage. How about that?